Somebody whip up some of MadJack's Mojo for me!! Hedge Help/Thoughts Please!!

[LordofBalls]

well I've hit the first 5 on this 8 tmr..
It's late Friday night... and I'm thinkin... and asking for input

I reeeeaallly need a big chunk to come out of this play...


I Need Penn St/Ga gm OVER 42.5 in the morning... (line currently 43.5)
Then I need WVa/Az St OVER 64.5 in the evening... (line currently 63.5 :facepalm: )
Last game is nfl Sunday, Pats ML... will be easy to hedge there with a +375 ml, and/or 10 points, I'll throw maybe 800 on Dolp ml, and another 700 on the +10, and hope Pats win by 7

question is... do I do anything with it tomorrow? a few hundred the other way... ?
I'm feeling I have to do something like this, especially if I make it to WVa / Ariz St game...

THOUGHTS PLEASE??


PARLAY (8 TEAMS) >>> 40/7264

NE PATRIOTS -550 PENDING

TOTAL o42?-110
(PENN STATE vrs GEORGIA) PENDING
TOTAL o64?-110
(WEST VIRGINIA vrs ARIZONA STATE) PENDING

TOTAL o56-110
(HOUSTON U vrs FLORIDA STATE) WIN
HOUSTON U +220 WIN
CLEMSON +155 WIN
TOTAL o57-110
(NOTRE DAME vrs OHIO STATE) WIN
STANFORD -235 WIN



I appreciate the input! :0008

BoL~LoB

 

[checkmate]

well I've hit the first 5 on this 8 tmr..
It's late Friday night... and I'm thinkin... and asking for input

I reeeeaallly need a big chunk to come out of this play...


I Need Penn St/Ga gm OVER 42.5 in the morning... (line currently 43.5)
Then I need WVa/Az St OVER 64.5 in the evening... (line currently 63.5 :facepalm: )
Last game is nfl Sunday, Pats ML... will be easy to hedge there with a +375 ml, and/or 10 points, I'll throw maybe 800 on Dolp ml, and another 700 on the +10, and hope Pats win by 7

question is... do I do anything with it tomorrow? a few hundred the other way... ?
I'm feeling I have to do something like this, especially if I make it to WVa / Ariz St game...

THOUGHTS PLEASE??


PARLAY (8 TEAMS) >>> 40/7264

NE PATRIOTS -550 PENDING

TOTAL o42?-110
(PENN STATE vrs GEORGIA) PENDING
TOTAL o64?-110
(WEST VIRGINIA vrs ARIZONA STATE) PENDING

TOTAL o56-110
(HOUSTON U vrs FLORIDA STATE) WIN
HOUSTON U +220 WIN
CLEMSON +155 WIN
TOTAL o57-110
(NOTRE DAME vrs OHIO STATE) WIN
STANFORD -235 WIN



I appreciate the input! :0008

BoL~LoB

King of balls. lol. you can't really hedge until Sunday. Any other way would just be another gamble and not a true hedge. It's that simple. If you win both today and go 7-0 with pats pending Sunday. Then you can truly hedge on the last game and guarantee yourself money. The amount you guarantee yourself is obviously completely up to you. If I were you and I made it to the pats game??? Fawk the hedge. Go for it. Pats will take em out and collect the full amount on the 8 teamer. :0074

 

[ChasDee]

I could never understand why someone would want to hedge on a parley they have in play, unless of course you change your mind. Otherwise just play a 7-teamer instead of an 8-teamer. If you play a 6-team parley and have 5 games in with one to go and you are thinking of betting the last game the other way to "make sure you get paid," why not just play the 5-teamer in the first place and leave that last game off? If you hit the first 5, then you win the money and don't have to consider a hedge bet by going the other way on the last game.

But I agree with checkmate, if you "hedge bet" on games 6 and 7 of an 8-teamer, you risk losing both the hedge bet and the parley, so it's not a true hedge!

At any rate, I hope you hit your parley and I'll sure be pulling for you! Good luck in whatever you decide to do!!

 

[LordofBalls]

thanks guys for input!

maybe I'll just go off the grid for a day and see if they both won today or not lol... :00x29

I'll definitely cover the Dolphins if I win the two today...

Chasdee, I figure if somehow Pats lose, I wanna bring $$$$ away from the game, putting 800 on ml, and another 800 on dolphins @ +10 would bring me about 3600 if they upset the pats... I'd like that.

if the dolphins lose by less than 10, my 2 cover bets offset, no harm, I win the 7k
If the Pats blow em out by 11 or more, I walk away w 5600 or so...

I'm willing to risk that 1600 to make sure I walk w something that'll fill my pocket.. a win/win :0074

appreciate you guys taking the time to respond... Good Luck today! :00x11:00x11

 

[BGFalcon]

The general rule is to not hedge unless the hedge bet has good value as well. For example, don't play under on PSU/UGA unless you would normally play that as a bet. The exception to this general rule is if the amount is a life-changing amount and you would need to ensure some sort of profit or go insane if you lost.

 

[gjn23]

You're only 5/8 of the way to a win
Doesnt seem like youre a big bettor (40 parlay)
2 chances to hedge today at even money each time offers a chance to grab some cash or lose on your profits at the end of the 8 teamer
You also could wait and hedge each game today halftime since they are totals where you can guage progress halfway thru game.
Game 8 of this parlay offers a two way hedge (+ points for double win or nice ml odds)

My advice

Let the two games ride today and hedge tommn if so inclined

im of the opinion to never hedge unless the initial bet is small (yes) and the payout is at least 100x that amount (yes) and you have a nice chance to win both original bet and hedge (yes getting +10 tomm)

 

[LordofBalls]

The general rule is to not hedge unless the hedge bet has good value as well. For example, don't play under on PSU/UGA unless you would normally play that as a bet. The exception to this general rule is if the amount is a life-changing amount and you would need to ensure some sort of profit or go insane if you lost.

normally, I wouldn't look to hedge a $40 bet, but because the payoff is so high (7k) I feel at this stage I can risk taking a little off the top... and still have a very nice profit

I bet 100 under 45.5 in the P St game.. chance for a middle.. chance for adjusting at halftime..

and... there's always a chance of that going insane thing BG.... with or without bets in place


GL and thanks for input!! :toast:

 

[LordofBalls]

You're only 5/8 of the way to a win
Doesnt seem like youre a big bettor (40 parlay)
2 chances to hedge today at even money each time offers a chance to grab some cash or lose on your profits at the end of the 8 teamer
You also could wait and hedge each game today halftime since they are totals where you can guage progress halfway thru game.
Game 8 of this parlay offers a two way hedge (+ points for double win or nice ml odds)

My advice

Let the two games ride today and hedge tommn if so inclined

im of the opinion to never hedge unless the initial bet is small (yes) and the payout is at least 100x that amount (yes) and you have a nice chance to win both original bet and hedge (yes getting +10 tomm)

gjn.... I agree with pretty much everything u say. I take shots with these $25-50 pars, and wager $50-250 on straights.. I took a little on Pst under 45.5... can adjust at half or or even in-game or just not bother if things are going well

thanks much for taking time to respond :0074

GL to us!

 

[tulah]

1st thing is survive till Sunday .then worry about a hedge.
Best of luck!:0074:toast:

 

[LordofBalls]

1st thing is survive till Sunday .then worry about a hedge.
Best of luck!:0074:toast:

got close... won 125... still bugs me that I put that one in there when there were so many diff overs that I liked more lol

thx tulah ~ G'luck rest of the way!