To Scott: You are correct, I miscounted. I have 9 plays this week listed, which is certainly down from my normal 12-14 plays per week. I'm not sure what your point is in spitting hairs on this matter......I could certainly save myself a lot of time by only capping one or two games and doing one or two write ups per week. But I think the readers (some of them, anyway) want as much information as possible. The plays may not win, but if you think skipping the games or putting up a blank page is better than what I'm doing, perhaps you should look elsewhere for analysis.
I say that to you respectfully because what I do often deviates from the plays that are listed on Firdays. While I almost always play the picks I post (there are rare occasions when I lay off a game due to late breaking news), I play many more games than are listed. Last week, I ran to the window and layed a sizable wager down on the UNDER in the BUFF-GB when they showed the flags blowing and the wind gusting at 30 mph. I did the same thing the week before in the BUFF-SD game. On Monday night, I ran tot he window when I saw PITT was getting the ball first and layed another unit down on PITT for the 1H. On and on.
My point is -- I can't always post all the plays I acutally make. It's impossible. I try my best to look at the games in advance and render an opinion. It's my opinion. And, I try to tell you why I think the way I do. I'm right sometimes. I'm wrong sometimes. That's gambling.
As far as what games I like better than others and what I predict my record will be -- you are far too bright to expect a reasonable answer to that question. I have read your material here at the site and for the most part been impressed and learned from your perspectives. However, if you DO NOT like the plays and you expect them to go 4-5 or 3-6, then by all means FADE THEM! At the very least, I'd sure like to hear WHY you like the other side of these games.
It's easy to suggest a pick is wrong, but I think it would be far more beneficial to the group of you could give us your thoughts as to why these picks will go 4-5 or 3-6. I know I have a lot to learn, so please help me out.
To Dubs: I intentinoally put out this play early because I knew that line would move to -7. I LOVED this game at -6.5, but at -7 is loses some value. Based on my figures, I say this bet loses about 15 percent of value having to lay -7. In that case, I'd lay it, but not as heavy. I would also buy the half point, although the numbers do not justify it as a wise betting investment. Generally, buying off the 7 is not wise, but in this case with rivals in what could be a low scoring game, I believe it's justifed.
Best Wishes,
Nolan Dalla
