Someone talk some sense into me!!!!

[The Big Tease]

OK Heres the deal........I have $580.00 in my wagering account. (The only reason I am giving my amount is because it will make my situation easier to understand, other wise it is irrevalent) My sportsbook offers moneylines on EVERYTHING...so there is money lines on the number 1-16 seeded games, etc. I plugged the following parlay into my computer, and I really dont see how the thing can lose....please give me your advice.


Pitt (ML)
Florida (ML)
Texas (ML)
Kentucky (ML)

Then it gets hairy, and for those of you that dont bet tennis, you may not be able to answer my question. But the parlay continues...

Kim Clijsters (ML)
Serena Williams (ML)
Lindsay Davenport (ML)


The parlay pays $110.00 for my account balance of $580.00


I would say that would be a pretty good day for a smaller player like me, and I really dont see any of those bets losing no matter what. Only problem is.....this is NCAA tourney week, I didnt take off work, to sweat moneylines and tennis. It would be more fun playing regular bets. Would this be something that you guys would consider?

 

[Teddy KGB]

jesus how big are the money lines in college hoopsS?

 

[The Big Tease]

pitt -8500
florida -5000
texas -18500
kentucky -22500
clijsters -1900
williams -3100
davenport -2000

 

[PaTsJaMM]

Too small a payoff to gamble everything on. I've learned long ago that ANYTHING can happen (and probably will if I bet against it). Remember Santa Clara beating Arizona a couple years back:shrug:

 

[The Big Tease]

Yea I thought about that.....and as much as Ky and Texas are probably OK, the Pitt game and Florida game could end up being nailbiters, and I just dont want to deal with it. I would still like to hear what people say but I will probably take the high road

 

[Army Crew_Chief]

Looks like a great parlay if you are willing to make 19% by risking all of your money.

NO WAY!!! There's nothing wrong with 19% on a SU bet. On a 7, yes 7, team Parlay betting your bank, absolutley NOT!!!

Way too many thinks can happen when you are dealing with 14 teams!!! You depend on everything falling into place.

If you want to do it..........hey ballsy move. I'd just recommend keeping a $100 out of it. So you still have something left if it doesn't hit. Plus it would take only $20 off of your winnings.

GL

 

[buddy]

If I were you, I'd bet $10 on every game that BIG GAME HUNTER has already posted.

Then sit back and enjoy the day.

***************************

Now consider this...

Let's assume you win your ML parlay.

You put $580 at risk to win $110

You're happy and $110 richer.

****************************

BUT WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF YOU DOING SOMETHING THIS RIDICULOUS AGAIN AND LOSING?

If I was handicapping this scenario, I'd say "pretty good".

 

[Master Capper]

I wouldnt do it the payoff doesnt equal the risk.

 

[TheShrimp]

It's those tennis plays I'd worry about and they're the only ones that give you any value. You're getting about 1:7 odds on all three of those ladies winning.

And then, the hoops plays pay pennies on the dollar. On those '2' seeds you're paying 1-85 and 1-50 on games that TRADITIONALLY have been no where NEAR that skewed to the favorites.

I think 15's have won 3 times in like 20 years (since we went to 64 teams) so you're talking about 3-80 odds being fair, or roughly 1-27. Maybe you have a reason to believe that Pitt over Wagner is a much better bet than South Caro over Coppin St a few years back, but I don't see it.

 

[Chewbaca]

Personally i would feel much better risking $ 110.00 to win

$100.00 on 1 game. if you lose u still have $400.00 ++

to play with.

Im a math WIZArd

 

[The Big Tease]

I totally agree with you guys. I will stick with "regular" wagering. I wanted some sense to be talked into me, and you all delivered! I appreciate it. It will be kinda fun seeing if this one turns out and compare it with what I actually bet today. But you guys are right...even though they are all heavy favorites, anything can happen. Just like that damn boxing match that I keyed in parlays one day (Damn Klitchsko!!!) I think he was like -2750!!!!

I will post my plays later

 

[FATMAN]

BAD MONEY MANAGEMENT:nono:

If there's anything you should get from this formum is that there is no such thing as a sure thing:nutkick

Much better value out there:yup