something fishy about the bowling green/ miami-oh game

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AR182

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there is a very good capper at another forum, who i have been watching for the last few years has a theory in ncaa football & basketball that seems to be a winner.it goes something like this:

bet a lower ranked team if they are favored over a higher ranked team.

this theory worked last week when michigan was favored over a higher ranked mich.st& beat them..a few weeks ago lower ranked bowling green was favored over a higher ranked n. ill. st., & beat niu pretty easily.
i haven't formulated an opinion on the tonights game yet, but we have an unranked team(miami-oh.)favored by a td over a #15 ranked team.bowling green is coming off the impressive win over n. ill.st., played ohio st. very tough at osu's stadium, & beat purdue at purdue.the only top team that miami has played was iowa & lost pretty handily.yet miami is favored by 7 points over an impressive, thus far, #15 ranked bowling green.imo this seems pretty fishy to me. am i the only one who thinks this?
 
C

CollegeCapper

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Fishy? Couldn't agree more -- I think the books are begging for Bowling Green action. They beat a very good N. Illinois team last week, but recent history shows unimpressive wins against Eastern and Central Michigan -- giving up almost 200 rushing yards to EMU.

I think the public will be ALL OVER bowling green and the points tonight -- it looks easy and that's what scares me. Personally, I am going to wait until right before kickoff and go against the public money, which means I will almost assuredly be on Miami Ohio. good luck.
 
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i'm not the one

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u are not the only one who thinks this..........i see the game the same as you, and i wonder how many times this trend can continue.........i think the public has finally caught on to vegas scheme and i will be all over the falcons +7 tongiht. if i get burned so be it.....bg is good and unless mafia comes into play this one should cash

gl
 
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cooz3

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AR182...

QUICK QUESTION...REGARDING THAT ANGLE...

HOW MANY TIMES HAS THE RANKED TEAM BEEN A TD DOG? ...I LIKE THE ANGLE MYSELF...BUT I USUALLY SEE THE LINES AS BEING SET SMALL...LIKE 2.5..1..OR 3 ...7 SEEMS EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH FOR A RANKED TEAM...

GOOD LUCK

COOZ
 
B

baltimore buc

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The thing I find most fishy is if all the public money is on Miami (OH), then why is this line going up? Should be going the other way?????

I agree with cooz, this line is way to high to use the unranked fav over the ranked opponent angle.

I am leaning towards Bowling Green and the points, but the "funny business" might warrant a no play. This game will be entertaining enough, w/o action on it. It's not like I have to watch Houston and East Carolina battle for 6th place in C-USA and need some excitement.

GL
 
UT-Longhorn

UT-Longhorn

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I love that angle, and am waiting for the public $$$ to hit BG and drive that line down before I take Miami.......but im definately taking Miami tonite.....good luck
 
K

Kdogg21

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Agree with you their Longhorn. If the line drops to about 6 - 6.5 i definately will be on Miami. There are highly publicized as BG is, but they can hang with them. They have beaten Bowling green that last 4 times they have met.

GL
 
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ND2002HORNS

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Lets take a look at last weekend.

lower ranked Michigan -4 beats MSU
lower ranked VT +3 beats Miami
lower ranked Texas -5.5 beats Neb.
lower ranked Florida +2.5 beat Georgia
lower ranked Okl.St. +16 loses to Okl.

I remember the week before lower ranked Michigan -5 beats Purdue. It goes on and on.

Nice work AR bringing this trend up. It is bang on. You are valuable to this forum and always bring great stuff to the forum.

HORNS:D
 
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ND2002HORNS

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Here is what I got for this weeks game when we have two ranked teams playing each other.

No.5 Virginia Tech (-5) at No. 21 Pittsburgh
No. 15 Michigan St. (+6) at No. 6 Ohio St.
No. 17 Tennessee (+13) at No. 7 Miami
No. 10 Iowa (+3) at No. 14 Purdue
No. 11 Texas (-3) at No. 22 Oklahoma St.

So the plays would be:
Pitt +5
MSU +6
Ten +13
Purdue -3
Okl. St. +3

Makes you wonder!

HORNS

:D
 
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heleanth

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I think the theory he is talking about is where the team that is ranked lower is the favorite. Horns, none of the games you list would qualify under that system.

Unranked Miami (OH) favored over ranked Bowling Green would qualify since the lower ranked team is the favorite.

GL to all. I like Miami tonight, but would like to get it at less than 7, if possible.

Mike
 
nole47

nole47

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that is the no .1 rule of college betting, more so even in college hoops. either take the fave or dont bet it
 
A

AR182

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cooz,

i don't have any records on this trend. like i said someone from another forum brought this up a few years ago.


horns,

thanks for the nice words. but i'm one in many, including yourself that brings valuable info.

i think you are mis-reading the trend.in this group of games only michigan & texas applies to this theory.(lower ranked teams favored over higher ranked teams)

lower ranked Michigan -4 beats MSU
lower ranked VT +3 beats Miami
lower ranked Texas -5.5 beats Neb.
lower ranked Florida +2.5 beat Georgia
lower ranked Okl.St. +16 loses to Okl.


So the plays would be:
Pitt +5
MSU +6
Ten +13
Purdue -3
Okl. St. +3
in the above group of games, the trend would apply to :

purdue(#16) favored over iowa(#10)

besides the miami-ohio play, the only other play that i see is unranked auburn favored over #20 miss.

did i miss any others?
 
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gman2

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im not sure how the unranked favorite angle has fared this year in football. im sure it doesnt come up anywhere nearly as often as it does in college basketball. still pops up every now and then.

i know it came up in the tcu / south florida game

south florida was a 2.5 or 3 point chalk and lost outright to snap that home winning streak.
 
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Umakethecall

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I like the trend

I like the trend

I like the trend as well. That was very interesting.


I like the Purdue game


and I like the AUBURN game


Those were two examples of the trend.


We wait until tonight to see how it goes before I do anything on the other two.

BUT I LIKE BG tonight...but no play
 
W

wolfpacker97

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Sunday night juice got as high as -126 on BG +7.
Also, O/U has reached as high as 66.

At 12:58 yesterday O/U at 63
At 12:59 yesterday O/U at 66 . . .what happened here
 
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