Something smells fishy (not a TB/fix thread)

[JEFF]

Why is Miami only -3 at Jax? Why has there not been a hook added to this spread? Miami defense against a rookie QB and a poor team that just won its first game and can rejoice? I know they have revenge and New Englan looming, but I just don't see it.

Feels like a sucker bet. Looks like a sucker bet. I took it anyway, for better or worse, as I think Miami still isn't getting enough credit. This should be an easy win.

Anybody?

 

[GM]

Hey Jeff,

I haven't really started looking into the games yet, but yes, on the surface it doesn't look like many pts to lay. Jax does not impress me. Rookie QB's are poison. Jax got off the schneid this week (which in the case of a bad team usually means they will ease up, the pressure is off them now, and they'll slide back into mediocrity).

One thing going Jax's way IMO: It's pretty tough to win back to back road games in the NFL. I knew this but took Tennessee this past week anyways. Really felt Tenn was the superior side, esp. defensively. Game blew up in my face. I should have known better but couldn't resist.

If you account for homefield advantage, then being a 3-pt road favorite is like being a 9-point home favorite, right? It would not look nearly as appealing if this game was in Miami. I absolutely HATE betting home favorites of more than a TD.

I dunno, maybe Miami will run away with it. To me though this is similar to that Tenn game (except New Eng is a better team than Jax in my opinion).

Good luck with it. No idea yet whether I'll be with you, against you, or sitting by idly.

 

[JEFF]

I totally hear you on the b-to-b road game scenario. But this Miami defense is stellar. This Jax defense is shit. I know this sounds like a prototypical "square" comment, but I just don't see how Jax wins this game.

Of course, they could. the NFL and that's why the line isn't higher.
Sometimes you just have to take your shots at The Man.

 

[MrChristo]

Hey, JEFF.

Definately not trying to talk you out of taking Miami, but Jax defense may not be as shit as you first think.

They are, in fact, 3rd best (Behind Philli and Dallas) at stuffing the run...allowing only 3.0 ypr!!

Having said that, the 'fins just beat NYG without any production from Ricky.....Having said that! .....Can Jay beat 2 teams on the road in 2 weeks???

I think the line is pretty well right.

(Just to go the complete circle.....I really like Miami here too! )

 

[Redfish]

I haven't studied this one yet...but the line does look spooky...I think the last MIA came here in the playoffs...they got waxed 63-13 or something like that.

 

[GM]

Mornin' fellas...

Up early, wheels turning. When I think of Jacksonville these days, I think Over. Seemed to me off the top of my head most of their games have been shootouts this year.

Mr. C's statement about Jax's 3rd-best rush D had me heading over to NFL.com to look some things up. (Yes, he's correct, 3.0 ypc, 3rd in the league).

How is it a team with a stat like this is this bad? Well, they've got no pass D. Jax has given up a minimum of 21 pts in each of their 5 games this year. And some of these teams they have played are not exactly offensive powerhouses....Carolina, Houston, San Diego...?? Two of those teams (Car & Hou) had their most productive offensive days of the season when they played against the Jags. Jax pass D ranks 6th-worst in the league, giving up 234ypg. That's pretty alarming for a team that has faced such weak passing attacks, and has spent as much time as they have trailing in their games. You'd think the other teams would be running a bit more with the lead, no? Maybe there is no need to run when the pass D can be picked apart so easily? They've given up 11 passing TD's, tied for most in the league (with Arizona).

Now Miami isn't exactly a passing team...but then again, I am not so sure Fiedler is any worse than Drew Brees, David Carr or Rodney Peete (I think he was the QB at the time?).

Miami actually has some similar #'s to Jax. Their run D is very good. They've given up the 3rd-fewest rushing yards, and have the 4th-lowest ypc (4.2). But their pass D is giving up a whopping 245ypg, 3rd-worst in the league. Of course it could be argued that Miami was leading most of the time in their games, and that leads to more opponent passing. Where they are superior is pts against. They are giving up yardage, but not points.

What makes this really interesting...both of these teams live by the run. But neither can stop the pass. Someone's gotta adjust their strategy.

Jax thus far has seemed to bring their opponent's offence alive no matter who they have played. The more I think about this game, the more I am thinking the Over might be worth a shot. I think the Jags have a bit more offensive pop than other recent Dolphins opponents. And this could be a bit of a letdown spot for Miami (NE @ home up next, 2nd straight roadie, not really tested lately by perceived "superior" opponents). Maybe the Dolphins come in a bit unfocused/soft?

 

[Tduji]

Hey Jeff...don't know if this is an answer or not

Hey Jeff...don't know if this is an answer or not

but, the last three games, all at Jacksonville have played as follows:

8/15/03 MIA 23 JAX 27 ATS: JAX/OVER

1/15/00 MIA 7 JAX 62 ATS: JAX/OVER

10/12/98 MIA 21 JAX 28 ATS: JAX/OVER

FWIW just my two cents


GLTA

 

[Nolan Dalla]

I think this line has everything to do with some emerging confidence in JAX QB Byron Leftwich. Before explaining, let me state that I am perhaps the most jaded anti-rookie QB capper on the planet. I will NEVER bet on a team starting a rookie QB. Add the fact that Leftwich royally pissed me off as a training camp holdout and he's lower than pond scum in my estimation. That said.....

Byron Lefwich is going to be a great quarterback. What I have seen from this rookie in pre-season games and in the tow games he's played impresses the hell out of me. His arm is better than Vicks. He doesn't panick under pressure. He is composed in big play situations. I know it's early and we cannot put too much stock in a single game (San Diego is shiit), but when you watch a game sometimes you can pick up something special and what I saw from Leftwich smacks of an emerging star in this league.

This is not Spurgeon Wynn or Kyle Boller we are talking about as rookie QBs. I predict Leftwich may have a longer and more stellar career than protege Michael Vick. There is no way Vick survives 5+ years in the NFl running the ball as he does. He's a running time bomb, one hit away from a career ending injury. Leftwich had many of Vicks gifts, but has the composure to stay in the pocket. That could set him apart.

The bottom line is -- had Leftwich not looked so good lat week, that line would probably be up around 4 or 5 points.

Nolan Dalla

 

[ussrv]

Good point Nolan. I thought Byron was the best qb in the draft. Put him with a fl state or miami wr crew and he would of put up some scary numbers.

 

[JEFF]

Goodpoints all around. Indeed, Leftwich is a stud and Miami has had some troubles, to say the least,in Jacksonville.

Still, Miami is such a better team. I expect Leftwich is going to be good for a handful of TOs,and Fiedler will be able to make plays agsint that secondary.

I think the fins are the right side no matter how easy it looks, but whether I go down in flames with that thinking is to be determined.:shrug:

 

[GENO]

One rule of thumb that has served me well thru the years (cost me some winners also) is DON'T lay points on the road. that would take me off of Miami right away. However one strategy to look at is Miami ML offset majority of that by JAX +3.5 or + 4.

I know that will ruffle some feathers, but it has worked for me in the past.

 

[ELVIS]

imho. as fiddler goes so go the fish. miami has as much talent as any team on def. to a man i think they are the most talented individually. leftwich is good beyond his years, but may struggle against this secondary. sd sec is weak. this game may be fun to watch, but i feel confident miami covers 3.

 

[GENO]

An after thought:

My guess is bet the ML now and wait till late to take the points.

 

[3fingerstony]

Byron has made some impressive plays so far, but also in his first full game some pretty glaring rookie mistakes. What matters is not how good he can be, but whether a defense like Miami's can force him into some mistakes & turnovers. Imho, that is likely to happen. Turnovers either a) lead to points for the other team, or b) kill potential scoring drives.
Del Rio has ststed several times that he is determined that his football team will not be run on, & they will be good at running the football. While he learns to be an NFL coach, he is hanging onto these 2 goals, sometimes at the expense of losing football games.
Jax is not likely to have tremendous success running against Mia, giving Mia a lot of opportunities for takeaways when Byron is forced into 2nd & long or 3rd & long siuations.
Mia is also stubborn about establishing/not abandoning the run. That may well keep this game close.
Imho, the most likely play if you want to play this game is the OVER.
Good luck.