I'm gonna' try and give an example of why understanding the opening line can either create or prevent a heartache.
Colonial Conference
Date: Wednesday..... Feb 12, 2003
Matchup: Wm / Mary @ TOWSON STATE
Opening Line: Wm / Mary -7'
I'm going to list the last seven games for both teams showing C/L's, final scores and ats margins of cover or no cover.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wm / Mary
1.....@ hofstra....+4'.......79-69....win / cover +14' ats
2.....v ODU.........+5.........69-53....win / cover +21
3.....@ hampton...nl.........64-62....win
4.....@ del...........+9'........57-91....lose / no cover -24'
5.....@ jmad........+7'........61-59....win / cover +9'
6.....@gmason.....+12'.....58-67.....lose / cover +3
7.....v H'FSTRA.......-5.......51-66.....lose / no cover -20
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
TOWSON STATE
1......v DREXEL.......+14..... ..50-76.......lose / no cover -12 ats
2......@ vcu..............+20'..... .60-97.......lose / no cover -16'
3......@ gmason.......+21.......54-76.......lose / no cover -1
4......v VCU..............+10.......47-82........lose / no cover -25
5......@ delaware.....+17'......60-74........lose / cover +2'
6......@ nc wilm........+25.......53-85........lose / no cover -7
7......@ drexel..........+20'......56-85........lose / no cover -7
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Okay.........
Normally going back five games is plenty, but in this case, seven games gives us a better illustration of what we need to know.
First, pay attention to the current opening line. Compared to Towson's other closing lines and performances, this opening line of +7' should have sounded whistles, bells, sirens and sent up red flags everywhere. WHY IS THIS LINE SO LOW?
Secondly, pay attention to their last two performances, both SU and ATS. That's about as bad as it can get. When you lose two consecutive games by -12 and -16' ats, you are in a bad way.
So, now we know two things about our equation:
1.....Towson is a weak team and they have the recent credentials to prove it. This is a fact and need not be questioned.
2....The O/L is 7'. This is a fact and needs to be questioned.
Thirdly, let's look at Wm / Mary.
In their last two games, it appears as if they're playing like their hair's on fire. They played very well, both at home and on the road, winning and covering by very large ats margins, +14' and +21.
THEN WHY IS THE O/L SO LOW ?
I, for one, have respect for the linesmaker. I think he's pretty good at what he does. I think there are times when he tries to fool me and I think there are other times when he's giving me a clue on which matchups to consider and which ones to avoid.
In this case, I think he wants me to avoid this matchup......Why?
First, nobody in their right mind would take +7' and TOWSON STATE. They don't have the credentials and they cannot be trusted to cover this number.
Secondly, Wm / Mary looks very tempting, but the O/L sure has me curious. I would feel more comfortable if this O/L was -14, but why is this line so low? Something tells me the Linesmaker knows something I don't know about this matchup, and if I was smart, I'd stay away from this game.
Being able to do this requires a few battle-scars and discipline.
I have the scars, but not enough discipline because I took Wm / Mary -7' in a small parlay.
Final Score: Wm / Mary-7' (-7), 59-52.
I had it at -7' and lost. I deserved to. I should have known better.
The Opening Line was the clue but I could not resist the temptation and paid the price.
Colonial Conference
Date: Wednesday..... Feb 12, 2003
Matchup: Wm / Mary @ TOWSON STATE
Opening Line: Wm / Mary -7'
I'm going to list the last seven games for both teams showing C/L's, final scores and ats margins of cover or no cover.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wm / Mary
1.....@ hofstra....+4'.......79-69....win / cover +14' ats
2.....v ODU.........+5.........69-53....win / cover +21
3.....@ hampton...nl.........64-62....win
4.....@ del...........+9'........57-91....lose / no cover -24'
5.....@ jmad........+7'........61-59....win / cover +9'
6.....@gmason.....+12'.....58-67.....lose / cover +3
7.....v H'FSTRA.......-5.......51-66.....lose / no cover -20
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
TOWSON STATE
1......v DREXEL.......+14..... ..50-76.......lose / no cover -12 ats
2......@ vcu..............+20'..... .60-97.......lose / no cover -16'
3......@ gmason.......+21.......54-76.......lose / no cover -1
4......v VCU..............+10.......47-82........lose / no cover -25
5......@ delaware.....+17'......60-74........lose / cover +2'
6......@ nc wilm........+25.......53-85........lose / no cover -7
7......@ drexel..........+20'......56-85........lose / no cover -7
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Okay.........
Normally going back five games is plenty, but in this case, seven games gives us a better illustration of what we need to know.
First, pay attention to the current opening line. Compared to Towson's other closing lines and performances, this opening line of +7' should have sounded whistles, bells, sirens and sent up red flags everywhere. WHY IS THIS LINE SO LOW?
Secondly, pay attention to their last two performances, both SU and ATS. That's about as bad as it can get. When you lose two consecutive games by -12 and -16' ats, you are in a bad way.
So, now we know two things about our equation:
1.....Towson is a weak team and they have the recent credentials to prove it. This is a fact and need not be questioned.
2....The O/L is 7'. This is a fact and needs to be questioned.
Thirdly, let's look at Wm / Mary.
In their last two games, it appears as if they're playing like their hair's on fire. They played very well, both at home and on the road, winning and covering by very large ats margins, +14' and +21.
THEN WHY IS THE O/L SO LOW ?
I, for one, have respect for the linesmaker. I think he's pretty good at what he does. I think there are times when he tries to fool me and I think there are other times when he's giving me a clue on which matchups to consider and which ones to avoid.
In this case, I think he wants me to avoid this matchup......Why?
First, nobody in their right mind would take +7' and TOWSON STATE. They don't have the credentials and they cannot be trusted to cover this number.
Secondly, Wm / Mary looks very tempting, but the O/L sure has me curious. I would feel more comfortable if this O/L was -14, but why is this line so low? Something tells me the Linesmaker knows something I don't know about this matchup, and if I was smart, I'd stay away from this game.
Being able to do this requires a few battle-scars and discipline.
I have the scars, but not enough discipline because I took Wm / Mary -7' in a small parlay.
Final Score: Wm / Mary-7' (-7), 59-52.
I had it at -7' and lost. I deserved to. I should have known better.
The Opening Line was the clue but I could not resist the temptation and paid the price.
