Sony Open in Hawaii

[Apollo Kid]

Tournament Matchup
Shigeki Maryuama -110 over Chad Campbell @ Sportingbet (ties lose)
--A play based on course form statistics. Maruyama plays very well here while Campbell is about average. I hate to bet matchups at 'ties lose' books and so early in the week, but I doubt this price is around for very long.

GL.

 

[Apollo Kid]

Outright
Jerry Kelly 80-1 e.w. @ Sportingbet
--Kelly's odds last year where 33-1 pre-tournament at the Sony. His play last year was an aberration from his solid course form and he missed the cut. Getting 80-1 here has to be a solid overlay.

GL.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Got an early outright for a change that I am quite confident won't get any better.

Tommy Armour to place top "10" @ GG 20/1

Much weaker field than last year and very good wind player as he demonstrated last year.

 

[redsfan]

Mayfair to place - top 10 @ 12-1 with Skybet

Had 6 top 10's from 31 starts last year and good price despite relatively poor course form

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

David Toms to win 25/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes
For two rounds last week, it was vintage Toms as he started the weekend in 2nd place and though he was blown off the course on Saturday, his 13th place finish was still a good performance given the very long and damp condition of the course. His 13th place finish also represented his worst finish in his six starts on the Hawaiian Islands. He matched that finish in this event last year and in 2002 finished 4th in this event. So given that this is a flatter, tighter course on which greens in regulation will be more challenging this week, he certainly looks to have a better chance than Ladbrokes give him.

Charles Howell to win 33/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, Victor Chandler, BetFred and BetDirect
Howell has yet to play in the Mercedes Championship, so this is his yearly season-opening event and he is not a player who gets rusty in Augusta over the winter. His worst finish in this event has been 27th (2004) and on his debut in 2002 he finished 4th and last year, he finished 3rd just two shots behind the winner, Vijay Singh. And the fact that he is the joint course record holder is also in his favour. I personally wouldn't want to go much below 33/1 for a player who has yet to win on Tour, but I do think that this will be a breakout year for Howell.

Bart Bryant to win 40/1 e.w. available generally
He hung around long enough last week to make sure that the hopes of a place finish survived until the final nine holes, but it was his scrambling that let him down last week. He did rank 1st in greens in regulation after all and given that the wet, hilly course was not exactly ideal terrain for his recuperating knee, there are still plenty of positive to take from last week. Another is the fact that he finished in the top-10 last year having previously managed only one top-10 on the PGA Tour since June 2002. This is clearly a course that suits as he managed to rank 1st in driving accuracy and greens in regulation in this event last year and now riding a wave of confidence that was unthinkable twelve months ago, he really should be finishing in the top-10 again on this type of shotmaker's course.

 

[redsfan]

Stanley


Charles Howell has won once on Tour.

 

[Stanley]

Yes, I've just been emailed about that :s2:

In my defence, it was such a long time ago and he has had so many chances to win that it is easy to forget that he actually did so in 2002. :nooo:

 

[veride]

Each-Way 1/4 1-5 :

Stewart Cink --> 50/1 Ladbrokes
Justin Rose--> 66/1 William Hill
Bo Van Pelt --> 80/1 SportingBet

 

[Apollo Kid]

Outright

Robert Gamez 9-1 to place in the Top 10 @ Golfing Gods
--Same reasoning as last week. His form in Hawaii has improved over the last few years. Probably a mistake to back him to win last week, but with the short field I thought a place finish was possible. He did manage to shoot 2-over-par on the weekend, which is decent number when you look at how the field played.

Much more comfortable backing him to finish in the Top 10 here as he has finished T-9, T-27 and T-12 the last three years.

GL.

 

[Agent 0659]

I cant find any Michelle Wie lines, WTF?

 

[InSpades]

What does "Each Way" "e.w." when wagering on someone in a tournament?

IS

 

[Al Bundy]

Michelle Wie odds-Michelle Wie +100000

 

[Apollo Kid]

What does "Each Way" "e.w." when wagering on someone in a tournament?

IS

I hope Stanley doesn't mind, but I copied and pasted this from his Web site. We can't post Web site addresses here, so this will have to do. I think this is a good explanation. If you have further questions, just post them as it is a hard concept to grasp at first. I didn't get it either until I read this:

An each-way bet is a bet that combines (to equal stakes) a win-only (futures) bet with a place-only bet. The place-only odds are typically 1/4 the win-only odds, though it does vary from book to book, while the places offered are typically either four or five. Obviously it is better to have more places and a bigger fraction for the place-only odds, though I will always prefer 5 places at 1/5 odds to 4 places at 1/4 odds at the same full outright price.

Most books offer the each-way bet as a option, while it is possible to make your own each-way bet at books like Five Dimes, Centrebet and Olympic who offer the win-only and place-only odds separately but not as a bundled each-way option. Simply place half your stake on the player to win outright and the other half of your stake on the player to be placed. To avoid confusing staking plans, I do not consider varying the share of the win and place elements in the total each-way stake.

 

[InSpades]

I hope Stanley doesn't mind, but I copied and pasted this from his Web site. We can't post Web site addresses here, so this will have to do. I think this is a good explanation. If you have further questions, just post them as it is a hard concept to grasp at first. I didn't get it either until I read this:

An each-way bet is a bet that combines (to equal stakes) a win-only (futures) bet with a place-only bet. The place-only odds are typically 1/4 the win-only odds, though it does vary from book to book, while the places offered are typically either four or five. Obviously it is better to have more places and a bigger fraction for the place-only odds, though I will always prefer 5 places at 1/5 odds to 4 places at 1/4 odds at the same full outright price.

Most books offer the each-way bet as a option, while it is possible to make your own each-way bet at books like Five Dimes, Centrebet and Olympic who offer the win-only and place-only odds separately but not as a bundled each-way option. Simply place half your stake on the player to win outright and the other half of your stake on the player to be placed. To avoid confusing staking plans, I do not consider varying the share of the win and place elements in the total each-way stake.

Thx.

IS

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Lot of folks like E/W --Don't do many myself but next week will put up list after 1st lines come out on Monday of 4 or 5 that look to have value--probably will generaly be in 20/1 to 40/1 range. Is easy to get carried away with multiple selections--My opinion it would wise to limit to 3 --in doing so if lowest odds player on list is 24/1 you only have to have one player place to break even.

 

[Agent 0659]

Michelle Wie odds-Michelle Wie +100000

Matchup odds. Anyone see any?

 

[Apollo Kid]

Matchup odds. Anyone see any?

Haven't come across any yet, but WSEX will probably post 72-hole matchups later today. They've been known to post special matchups with players not found at other books.


EDIT: I'd keep checking 5dimes as well. The 14 pages of matchups they posted this week may increase as sometimes they add some obscure matchups prior to the tourney beginning after coming out with their initial list.

If 5 dimes is going to book like this all year, then I don't think anyone will need to play matchups anywhere else because they'll have everything and then some.

 

[lostinamerica]

Michelle Wie??


Bet365

To Miss Cut(-400)
ToMake Cut(+225)

3 Ball (R1)
Camilo Villegas +100
Chris Couch +162
Michelle Wie +333



SkyBet (No U.S. customers)

To miss cut 2/7
To make Cut 5/2
Round 1 under par 13/8
Round 2 under par 13/8
To Win 2000
Top 5 250/1
Top 10 66/1
Top 20 25/1



GL

 

[Agent 0659]

Dam, 5dimes has 5 pages of matchups!! Gotta fund that account NOW. I love Wie +225 to make the cut, gonna hit that!

 

[Agent 0659]

Ok, getting started with a few here, will have quite a few more I think!


Jan 11 5:31pm Golf - Pending 10.00 to win 705.00
1. Golf - Sony Open January 12 - 15, 2006
Odds to win
Odds to win the Sony Open
Bo Van Pelt (+7050) [pending]


Jan 11 5:31pm Golf - Pending 30.00 to win 36.00
1. Golf - Sony Open January 12 - 15, 2006
Tournament Matchups
Charles Howell III vs Justin Rose
Justin Rose (+120) [pending]


Jan 11 5:33pm Golf - Pending 33.00 to win 30.00
1. Golf - Sony Open January 12 - 15, 2006
Tournament Matchups
Harrison Frazar vs Bo Van Pelt
Bo Van Pelt (-110) [pending]

Jan 11 5:33pm Golf - Pending 30.00 to win 33.00
1. Golf - Sony Open January 12 - 15, 2006
Tournament Matchups
Jesper Parnevik vs Arjun Atwal
Arjun Atwal (+110) [pending]


All at Olympic


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