Spanish GP

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djv

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Nice job guys wish I had been with you. Believe have all under control now and can join in on the fun tomorrow.
 
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Myron

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Stanley, Ladbrokes and Centrebet have the same policy now also. I think you're going to see most books adopt the policy of taking down matchups when first practice starts and keeping them down. Unfortunately that's one of the big disadvantages of constantly beating the books - eventually they just take away that bet option from you.

I remember with NASCAR, books used to keep the qualifying matchups available until the qualifying session. But I'm sure what happened was that they figured out that bettors were pounding the qualifying bets between 1 p.m. and 3 p.m. (as soon as practice times were posted on the web), and were winning 90% of the time. Practice emulated qualifying so they took away that advantage and closed them before the practice session.

To be honest I think if we bettors were a little more conservative and bet $100 or so on the matchups the books wouldn't pick up on these things so easily. But when they see several thousand dollars liability on every matchup it becomes evident to them that there is a problem. Greed can be a detriment sometimes too ;)
 
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djv

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Myron I said this before we could take this all under ground by the email route. But we should not have to. The books kick the crap out of so many folks with so many differant sports. Do they think they must win on them all. There something else going on. I can't see them worried about Cart & F1. I do say it looks that way. However take your business to those that seem to be the fairest. Long run those that offer all items. And don't try to screw us. They will get more of the business. If I was in that business I would take all of the sports there are. The odds are with them in the short and long run. We must remember taking all sports in to conideration. There are about 10% winners.
 
S

Stanley

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Myron said:
Greed can be a detriment sometimes too
Click to expand...

And I thought it was just a British trait to try and find fault in all things successful :rolleyes:

1837 and I provide some of the most successful picks on any forum on the internet. We do it because we want to make this the best forum on the net and because we have both benefitted greatly from experts in other sports who have posted their plays at Mad Jacks.

Greed would be if we kept our knowledge to ourselves, maximising personal gain and still free-riding off the picks of the other experts at Mad Jacks.

Greed would be if we went pay.

We do neither.

But neither are we naive enough to believe that if a book is continually getting killed on a sport, it will not change its policies. NASCAR was getting killed a couple of years ago and the change came about. We may bitch and moan if the changes come about in F1 and CART, but we both realise the situation.

If the change is coming, hit the books as hard as you can while you can, not the reverse!

If we are just left with race matchups, then so be it. We took as much of their money as we could from qualifying and we will continue to do so with race matchups. We will still be here posting our plays and benefitting from the plays of other Mad Jack posters ;)
 
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Myron

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Stanley I think you misinterpreted my post. I wasn't suggesting you or 1837 were greedy. I was simply stating that when people do well they tend to bet more and when there is only a couple of thousand or so on a matchup I'm sure most books don't pay heed to it (it isn't material). But when it starts getting into the mega thousands it wakens the sleeping dogs. I equate it to an audit. Most IRS auditors don't look that closely at expenses if there are a lot of "entertainment" expenses in the vicinity of $25-$100. But if they see a bunch of $500-$1000 expenses they look into it more closely.

I'm sure at one time William Hill was generous and inovative too (LOL) !:thefinger
 
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Myron

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In any case here are my picks.

No bet on the outright. Michael will win but I don't bet 2-5 favorites.

To win without the ferraris: Juan Montoya 2-1

Matchups:
Frentzen over Fischichella (OLY)
McNish over Webber (WSEX)
 
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sandwedge

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not so ancient american proverb :

don't chop down a money tree to make lumber
 
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Stanley

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Personally, I think the amount wagered matters little. It is balanced action that books want on their lines and when they don't get it, they look at the reasons why not and review whether it is profitable to employ someone part-time to draw up matchups with such one-sided action.

Just recall the episode with 1837 and Camelot last year. As a % of action, F1 was an incredibly small share, but Mark Del was really pissed that all the action was one-sided.

By saying everyone shouldn't bet heavily on a good thing, you include 1837 and myself in that group. You remark that if we kept things small-scale by limiting bets to no more than $100 then the books wouldn't mind. I disagree.

Make the most of any advantage that you have, because in life it is always temporary. Don't you wish you had bet more on NASCAR qualifying while it was so easy?
 
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Stanley

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Race plays:

Ralf Schumacher to beat Montoya -120 @ Bet365USA [2 units]
Villeneuve to beat Irvine -120 @ Olympic [2 units]
Button to beat Trulli -160 @ Five Dimes
Frentzen to beat Fisichella -130 @ Olympic [2 units]
Sato to beat McNish -150 @ Olympic [2 units]
Salo to beat McNish -175 @ Easybets
Bernoldi to beat Irvine +100 @ Intertops/Easybets [2 units]
Raikonnen to beat Trulli -189 @ Intertops/Easybets
Panis to beat Villeneuve -118 @ Easybets
Raikkonen to beat Montoya +165 @ Five Dimes
Barrichello to beat Ralf Schumacher -140 @ Pinnacle
 
1837

1837

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Somewhere South of Quebec and North of Boston...
Just learn that Irvine will start last instead of 15th (illegal fuel during qualifying) so add two more units on Villeneuve over Irvine.

Add: Bernoldi even over irvine ( 2units) Intertops

That's it for now and just hope Irvine won't haunt us...:rolleyes:
 
T

Ticker

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1837

1837

There was a qual match on VILLENEUVE vs IRVINE with IRVINE graded as winner with SIA. How do books normally handle this: regrade or not? :shrug: Thanks
 
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TIME TO MAKE $$$

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One interesting matchup that I find is Frentzen versus Fisichella. At canbet the odds are -111 for each driver, while at Olympic Frentzen is -156 and Fisichella is -110. I see some value here and expect Frentzen to have a decent race...


3* Fretzen -111 over Fisichella @CANBET
 
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