Sports wagering continues to be a losing proposition for EVERYONE!

[Nick Douglas]

yyz,

I don't respond when people merely cut and paste my words and parse them out as part of their response. If you want to respond, write a full fledged response instead of taking shortcuts. I don't mean to be hostile but I hate that lazy way of arguing.

wondo,

I understand what you are saying, but understanding a game from the perspective of coaching or playing and understanding a game from the perspective of handicapping are two completely different things. To use the screenwriting example, there may be some visually brilliant directors ::cough:: Peter Jackson ::cough:: who have no idea how to write a top shelf screenplay ::cough:: Peter Jackson ::cough::.

People who worry about luck are destined to lose for two reasons. One, the very fact that you worry about luck or even believe in luck means that deep down you feel that you are unlucky in some way. If you believe you are unlucky, you will be unlucky. If you think positively, positive things will happen. Secondly, you go into your handicapping with the wrong attitude if you believe that luck will have more to do with your success than skill, hard work and thick skin. It won't. If you lose long term, it is your fault because your handicapping is flawed. If you win long term, it is your brilliance that made you win because your handicapping is good.

 

[ferdville]

To be overly concerned about the luck factor in handicapping ignores the fact that luck plays a huge part in our daily lives and work as well. Being in the right place at the right time is essentially luck. People change jobs at the right time; move from one city to another at the right time; or some do the same things at the wrong time. Obviously, not every expert in the stock market unloaded their tech stocks at the right time. Some did and made a huge profit. Some didn't and found their retirement funds no longer sufficient. There is some element of luck in everything we do. How can you handicap the bounce of a football on astro turf? You can't. Sometimes a fumble will pop right back into the runner's hands. Sometimes it will take a 50 degree turn to the right, left, or back. These things can't be handicapped for one particular game. I agree with much of what Nick Douglas and others have pointed out. You must keep records and you must seek out the best line. If that means having 4 or 5 accounts, it can only help you succeed. Though all of us want to win on a regular basis, few of us are willing to do the work it takes to win regularly. Fletcher, KC Wolf and others have already popped that balloon that being a professional handicapper is fun and games with a drink laying out by the pool. If you were a fanatic golfer, how much might you spend each year on golf? Clubs, rounds, balls, maybe even country club fees - I know guys that spend more than $20,000 a year playing gold and they can barely break 100. There is no reason why you can't approach gambling in the same manner. You put aside whatver amount you feel comfortable devoting to this hobby. I do think that to win money on a regular basis, you should probably become an expert in one or perhaps two sports. I believe that anyone who plays baskets, hockey, baseball, football. horses, etc, - will have a hard time showing a profit for the year. Take a year and try to become an expert in one sport and see what happens.

 

[yyz]

If you believe you are unlucky, you will be unlucky. If you think positively, positive things will happen.

Holy shit! I guess I will re-up with my off shore, and put a smile on my mug when I bet!

Your 'logic' is as flawed as a hillbilly's smile.

I gave you well thought out, lucid reasoning in my post, Nick. If you don't want to listen or pose an arguement, that's fine, but don't talk down to me. I really get tired of that from you. I don't owe you a fuhking book report.

Cut and paste of your words just aids in people undersatnding what I am referencing. Nothing more.

I will stand by what I said, and Nolan's post, and Raymond's season, and your season, speak volumes about that. Perhaps people's winning seasons are the acception and not the norm? You are a young man, and have not been doing this very long, so again, I say time will tell.

I certainly hope everyone can keep cashing tickets, but it ain't happening.


If you lose long term, it is your fault because your handicapping is flawed. If you win long term, it is your brilliance that made you win because your handicapping is good.

If winning was as simple as that thought..........

 

[buddy]

Where's the love?

 

[Patternseeker]

i've enjoyed your wit and intelligence since i found this board, yyz,
this thread being no different, albeit gravity replaces wit here.

still a perplexing issue for me, and i have been received rather poorly when bringing it up in the past, is why someone decides to sell their picks? yes, of course, business and all that....

but it seems to me that people drawn to handicapping have, whether foolishly or not, a desire to live independently, to not have to work on "maggies farm" no more. if i could handicap and provide a living for my family....guess what? i'd have figured i'd found the goose that laid golden eggs...why the hell would i need to go marketing my picks? i know folks here have an argument against this, but it just sticks in my crawl....

so, i'm with on you this one, yyz, and worry and money are in the blood on the tracks...

edited to say: nick, geez. no reply to yyz cuz he cut and pasted? yea, right.

 

[Nolan Dalla]

YYZ:

I have respected your wisdom on many topics over the years here at MJS. You and I rarely disagree on issues, but here is a case where I cannot DISAGREE more strongly.

I will pass up the opportunity to slam this ball out of the park and prove that SPORTSBETTING CAN BEAT BEAT, as the evidence is irrefutable in favor of that position. The numbers in relation to the general population are not pretty (2 to 3 percent winners I estimate) -- but there are thousands of sportsbettors who profit year in and year out.

One interesting topic that came up in this thread was the element of LUCK. Indeed, LUCK is a significant part of sports betting. It reminds me of poker in that we can start with the best hand, get our money in the pot, but still lose because your opponent catches better cards later in the hand. Circumstances can favor a team covering the line, but once the game starts, the "cards" are falling and anything is possible.

What we play ofor is to BEAT 52.38 percent. I know many handicappers who top that figure but still lose because they manage their money poorly. In fact, there are very few handicappers who top both 52.38 percent and ALSO mange their money wisely (which is why I do a lot of flat betting).

Man o' man I could go on forever. But let me leave you with this:

My two areas od interest are POKER and SPORTS BETTING. The reasons why I have a passion for both should be obvious. Strangely enough, to succeed in BOTH, you must do THE EXACT OPPOSITE THING.

In poker, to win -- you must surround yourself with persons LESS intelligent/skillful than yourself.

In sportsbetting, one way of winning -- is to surround yourself with persons MORE intelligent than yourself.

I can't begin to tell you how much money I've made following a tip or a hot handicapper at the Forum. KC Wolf alone has probably put close to $3,000 in my pocket from college football alone. NDNFAN baield me out one weekend with $4,000 in winners in baseball. BURGH gave me several solid plays in the NBA. I could go on with others who helped like Eugene Michaels, Hoops, etc. but you get the idea. I personally had disappointing NFL season with side plays, but I destroyed the books with all the angles.

The key here is DIVERSIFICATION. Can I personally cap all the games and beat all the sports? No! But with some help from my freinds, I can go from being a .500 handicapper to a significant winner. Add in those angles and we are talking solid numbers.

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[AzRusty]

Whoever you are don't let your wife read this thread

Whoever you are don't let your wife read this thread

This thread brings up our on-going discussion between time spent and money won/lost.

Kathy and I have only been married 3 years and 9 months. In that time we have had a number of discussions and two or three knock down drag out fights where the fur flew over sports betting.

Kathy has been involved in horse racing for about ten years but has retired. She has raised and raced thoroughbreds and looks at this sports betting along the same lines as horse racing which may or may not be a valid comparison. I don't think it is.

Her premise is that when all is said and done. At the end of your betting career you will finish a loser. Period. This goes with any type of gambling (so she says).

Also .. in horse racing you have to have a shitload of money to be able to play all the proper angles, exercise good money management and be fairly lucky to win in the short term. Even then you'll lose ultimately.

My hope has been that by exercising proper money management, doing my own research occasionally, and following experts that over time I could make a steady income at this.

In our last "discussion" about a month ago she asked me how much I was up or down since I began about three years ago. My honest answer was $5000 down give or take a thousand. I haven't lost my ass or bankrupted us but ...hmm What else could I have done with that money?

Some other quick thoughts. Kathy has said I wish you were staying up late surfing and looking at porn instead of that stuff. lol. Yep.. she's probably not the first to say that.

Also.. If you would put HALF the time that you put into the sports betting into your practice you'd be making way more money... And that's the truth. A guarantee. Period. Plain and simple if I spent the time on my work that I spend on this I'd make more money.

And lastly. She sees my emotional ups and downs. She never knows how I'm going to behave or act and it must be related to how my bets are going. Jekyl/Hyde, manic depressive, sore loser, or giddy maniac.. with a shit eating grin.

To counter this last observation I have totally stopped monitoring my plays. Why should I let some idiotic fluke ruin what was a reasonably happy day? Most of the time I don't know how my games did till the next day. And I'm happier for it.

Now Kathy has resorted to bribing me. And I have to say I'm thinking about it. We live on five acres and she says that if I quit she will "buy" me a horse. Sure it's "our" money and I'll buy it myself or we'll buy it... whatever. She still has connections in the horsy set community and will help me get a quarter horse, paint or Arab...no I don't WANT a thoroughbred!

By the way.. as my tagline says.. I'm not a sportsfan. I don't give a good chit about sports. Never have and probably never will. I'm just in this to make money but so far it's not happening.

And as I told a friend of mine the other day. I've been doing this stuff for several years now and don't have shit to show for it. If I buy a horse, take care of it and feed it well... I'll at least have that to show for it... lol

My comments probably added nothing much to this thread. And I will admit that most of the time I feel rather inferior or like an outsider here. Much like that stupid line in Wayne's World.. I'm not worthy.... because I know so little about sports although I will admit that I have learned MUCH in the past three years.

And although I'm still not truly a fan I can say that one part of sports and capping that has intrigued me is the psychology of the game(s) both capping and various sports. And of the personalities involved both gamblers and players. It has been a real education.

Thanks for listening/reading

AzRusty

Randy

Surprise, Arizona

 

[WHY ASK WHY?]

AS I HAVE SAID BEFORE....

AS I HAVE SAID BEFORE....

OPINIONS ARE LIKE ASS HOLES EVERYBODY'S GOT ONE!

AND WE EACH BELIEVE OUR OWN IS RIGHT!

WHY?

 

[yyz]

Nolan,

I've admired the amount of time and effort you have sunk into this area. Whether it be your knowledge, or things others have given you, you have added much to the board in what you write.

You are the main reason I wrote this thread though. If a guy with your passion for the game of wagering decides to throw in the towel on certain aspects of the game, where is the hope for others?:shrug: Why would you "give up"? The game didn't change, did it? I respect the fact that you understood you could not win in these areas of gambling. But, if we are to believe that in the long run, your skills will win out over the game, why did you stop?

As for "thousands of sportsbettors who profit year in and year out"......come on. That seems a little far fetched. I am sure that there are plenty of guys who have done well for themselves so for, but they just haven't hit that wall yet. Money management will be the first ruin of a gambler, but I still say time will catch all of them. (Time having to do with the 'bad bounces' I have mentioned all thread long.) Now, surprisingly, I have only read one reply where someone has mentioned that 'the bounces will even out'. Not nessecarily. That is where the luck factor comes into play. (Sorry Nick, but it does exist. Call it timing, or fate, or karma......pick a word.) Like flipping a coin, after 1000 tries you will be well on one side or the other of the heads/tails side. So, someone will have well over 50% of those games to the good, (Sharp cappers) where as the other guy is on the wrong side (yours truly, and a cast of thousands!)

How many games do we see like the Eagles/Giants game yesterday? I would say the the NY backers who handicapped the game would have spit fire had their team lost! You know in your heart that Philly should have benn beaten with a club on that scoreboard. The refs tokk TWO tds away from them on horse shit calls, and Tiki Barber tried to sign the Eagles checks for them! These game go on and on forever, and they always will. You can't tell me that handicapping can overcome that.

What I would like to see, is for all who read this thread to do me a favor:

Over the next month, chart your wagers. I know you can see every game, but do the best you can to find out how the game played out. Very rare is the game that goes the way you planed it to go. Now, be honest, and find how many games you got "lucky" on, and how many you got shit on. You will find that your skills as a capper are diminished by this.

Like you said, Nolan.......this aint poker.


I am thankful that this thread is getting some attention, as I know a lot of you have oppinions on this subject. Please keep the fire burning.

 

[Nick Douglas]

I hope you realize how ironic it is when you mistakenly refer to karma as a synonym for luck. The whole concept of karma is that luck does not exist. Simplified, karma says that, assuming the ultimate goal of human existence is happiness, all positive actions lead towards happiness and all negative actions lead towards unhappiness. It basically means that no matter what hand you are dealt in life, you will ultimately find happiness if you live your life the right way.

 

[Stag]

YYZ-
You are the person at Madjacks I disike the most. You often use sarcasm to humiliate others. You've offended me in a thread before. You say you have stopped gambling, yet you are responding to or creating posts it seems like all day/everyday. You are a busy body.

HOWEVER.........I now feel sorry for you, so I am going to say something now that I think will help you:

"Disconnect yourself from sports gambling. Period."

I agree fully with Nick Douglas here.

With your negative attitude, you shouldn't even be doing this for recreation. l love Madjacks, but it is not a healthy place for YOU to be.

Best of luck to you.........I suggest you fin another social outlet. Not being mean. Just trying to help.

Stag

 

[He Hate Me]

Happyness comes and goes, that is why it is called the pursuit of happyness. It comes and goes with wins and losses. The realm of joy and the pursuit of happiness, joy comes from being saved by the Lord.


Money won from this world will perish, money is perishable, like a banana, it will not last. Send some rewards ahead to heaven, if I were AZ Rusty I would listen to Kathy and quit sports betting, even if you win, what are you really winning?

 

[djv]

YYZ your idea of them charting there plays. I hope those here that say they know what there talking about were doing this before you asked. It just so easy to see the 50/50 split on most plays posted here each week. For every trend player there is a reverse trend the other way. I tell you what folks if this is so dam easy and there are so many winners. I must have done something wrong last 35 years. I should have been able to retire 31 years ago. Just think 50/50 so we have winners and loser. Next game 50/50. Very easy to have the first 50 lose the second time and the other 50 that lost first time win the second time. I think you all know that makes all losers vs the vig. No this ant easy and luck is not always on ones side. Yes it does take some luck. You can not cap the ref's. It's the one item you cant. If you could and new the Ref's that will see you win or lose. Then it would be easy.

 

[yyz]

YYZ-
You are the person at Madjacks I disike the most.


Not being mean. Just trying to help.

Stag

Thanks, friend.

 

[Stag]

yyz--------
nice cutting and pasting.........
never your fault, always somebody elses, right?

I'm done with you.........i swear...and promise

 

[theGibber1]

noticed you went 1-3 this week..

this is the reason for this disgruntled thread.. you are not very good at this..and since you cant do it.. that must mean that everyone else cant either, and we must be idiots for trying..

and those of us who do make money are simply lucky.....

this thread reminds me of your

"You are a degenerate if you bet on this game!" thread.. that game was a 10unit play for me.. it was also a big play for most of the forum and we nailed it!!!

you failed to see the angles.. and since you couldnt find any.. we were all jack asses for betting on it....

you have a gift with words.. not handi capping.... the frustration is starting to show in your posts.. you used to be funny and plesent, now your rude and resentful attitude is growing tiresome...

ill ask again since you didnt answer before..

There is no science to this, as so many guys would have you believe

if this is true.. are people who have been winners over the long haul simply luckier than others?

you think KC wolf has a horse shoe up his ass?? hell no!! the man understands the game!

i work very hard..and this comment insults me..

for those w/ the ability
there is a science, there is money to be made in handi capping..
you simply dont have the knack for it and its pissing you off..

GL

 

[theGibber1]

I know a lot of you guys will say that you are up 200 units on the year, haven't paid the man in weeks, blah, blah, blah.....who cares? ........You are lucky. Look at those wins, and tell me how many game panned out the way you drew it up?

its funny i went back to take another look at that "you are a degenerate" thread.. then i ran across my own wright up

http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=63658

heres a tid bit from it...

sometimes when you cap a game.. you concentrate on a couple of different angles.. if your lucky at least one or two of the angles works out and you can squeeze out a win.. but the real fun games are when every angle plays out according to plan.. last nights a$$ whoppin is the result..

this is one reason why your aruments dont hold.. no, not every game goes the way you think.. that is why you cap a game from different angles.. one game plan not go right.. but most of the time others will:shrug:

 

[yyz]

if this is true.. are people who have been winners over the long haul simply luckier than others?


Ummmm......for the umpeenth time, YES!

Let's take roll call here:

"How many posters here are making a living doing this?"


OH........next to NO ONE!!!! What a shock! This place would be a ghost town if only "winners" were allowed to post! What would Jack do with a forum of 5 people?

Don't be mad at me for pointing out the obvious. If you want to think you will be a winner at this Gibber, go right ahead. It is your god given right.

But, you showed your wonderful betting technique earlier in this post.


here is the science.. all you need is to do homework for every game.. and have the discipline to stick to it

So....you should be hitting at 100% if that's all there is to it! What goes wrong when you lose? By your thinking, you didn't do your homework.

no parlays..

no halftime bets..!!!! cant stress this enough

no nba..

cut down on teasers..

play mostly dogs and unders ( i am aware i picked a fav and over tonight)



The only thing missing is, "Don't bet for 30 minutes after eating."

Why are these items on your 'no-no' list? Are they bad bets, or just bets you can't win, so no one else should make them? Kinda the pot calling the kettle black, no? Half time wagers offer some of the best bang, because you see how the teams are playing.

Tell JTSneaks "No NBA"......He'd laugh your ass off! But, because YOU can't do it, it's a losing propsition, right? I say that, and I'm an idiot in your eyes......You say it, and it's sound advice.

Gib, you can't tell me I'm full of shit on this, and then tell others "You can't win making wagers like this." It's a microcosm.

And I can't take seriously a guy who posts his "units won" sans the juice. WTF is that all about?

You gotta do a whole lot better than that partner.

 

[theGibber1]

Ummmm......for the umpeenth time, YES!

so KC Wolf is the luckiest bastard alive.. amazing.. cause i know he does this for a living

If you want to think you will be a winner at this Gibber, go right ahead.

i dont think.. i am.. and i have been for awhile..

So....you should be hitting at 100% if that's all there is to it!

what kind of dumb shit statement is that... ?? no im not going to hit a 100%? not every game goes as planned.. however i am saying it is possible to win the majority of the time over the long haul..

The only thing missing is, "Don't bet for 30 minutes after eating."

this is the kind of shit i was talking about... you bring nothing positive to the forum.. just smart ass remarks..


as far as my no no list and JT.. my no no list is just what you said it was.. MINE!! that doesnt mean its for everyone.. JT knows how to bet the halftimes.. that is his strength not mine..

And I can't take seriously a guy who posts his "units won" sans the juice. WTF is that all about?

i already explaind this before.. im not going to do it again..besides what the phuck does it have to do w/ this argument???

well if you dont like the units and i have to do better..

hows this..

98-56-4 ytd... is that better partner?
:shrug:

 

[Tman]

Very interesting thread, agree a little on both sides here. I strongly believe you can win at this if you stick to whatever plan you decide to do, and never vary from it. I have six books, all of which i looked deep into before going with any of them. IMO there are 2 very important variables to winning. Numerous outs is the first, and what i believe to be the MOST IMPORTANT is reduced vig. I wager on a lot of games and quite simply it has been a huge difference. There is a certain system i stick to as far as same amount on each bet and when to make my bets. I have never had any luck at Bases so just coattail only. Other sports i look at certain cappers before playing my own games. I have kept my records since the 2000-2001 season. These are my records since then.

NFL 272-238 .533
NBA 410-356 .535
CFB 394-322 .550
CBB 543-468 .537

Like i said a lot of games but this is for all 3 years, keep in mind the reduced vig, and it makes a huge difference. Usually i can get anywhere from -107 to -110, so you do the math. I don't think you can make a living at this unless you can wager a lot each game. I can't do that at this point in my life, but just showing there are people who can win. And i enjoy it very much and the extra cash helps. Anyway sorry for rambling, interesting topic. Good Luck