Spreadsheet early picks - week 14

Jimboski

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Man, time goes by fast as hell during college footsball season doesn't it? If you think it goes by fast for you, how bout somebody (like me, f'rinstance) who doesn't play along until WEEK 5? I had to get some reliable data into the spreadsheet and none of it was from some of the early weeks with all those mismatches either so it took 4 weeks to get enough useable data into the SHEET.

I took a closer look as to what was going on with the $$ after it got a little, actually VERY little, sour with the picks last week and I'm noticing that it's "ULTRA BESTEST RATED PLAYS" are doing much better than all the teams rated below those this year. I have been posting the "STRONG" picks and the next level, "SOLID" picks, so far. This week I'm going to list only the top (STRONG) plays. I've had good luck this season going with my OWN picks whether on paper (that's mostly the case) or for real when I LUV the team the the SHEET sez is NOT gonna cover. That is - I'll be fading 2 of it's STRONG picks this week. But, for the record - all 6 of these $$ strong picks count cause this thread is all about the $$ (Super Sheet). Asfaras I'm concerned I'll only be looking at 4 of them though.

Let's say these count whatever the closing spread is cause these plays are so highly rated, based on the opening spreads it entered, it shouldn't make a difference.

Houston (playing SMU)

LSU (playing Ark.)


FRESNO ST. : At the spread (-7) that I entered for this one - this one would be most preferred this week.

Rutgers (playing UCONN)

Now, here's the 2 $$ STRONG picks that I ain't buying at all and I'm gonna take my chances fading the monster on these two.

S. Carolina: gimme CLEMSON

UCLA: It looked to me like USC was hyped crapola earlier this season but I'm a believer now after having watched them more than once since their early games this year. Gimme them Trojans.

Good luck whatever you decide to do.
 

Clint1001

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Thank you for the picks. I really do like the way you go about picking them. Does the $$ work on other sports? It seems like the most consistent way of picking winners is to use a method like yours. Which appears to me to be: not bet at the beginning of the season, wait for the data and then let the math make the decisions.
 

lostinamerica

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I'm not happy The Sheet is not picking Clemson, but I guess you're not too happy about it, either.

Thanks for your excellent contributions.

GL

************************************************

Oh my Barney, Oh my Barney,
Had a jail but couldn't lock it.
Had one bullet for his pistol,
Had to keep it in his pocket.
 

joefrog91

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Agree with you on the Clemson, USC picks. Already had Houston and Fresno St was a large play for me too.
 

Jimboski

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Thank you, MJers

Thank you, MJers

Gee whiz, I really didn't expect to get all the visitors and It's great to get a nice surprise to see you all were here. I'll reply to y'awl in one paragraph. Oh, Hailmary - sometimes you gotta be quicker with the trigger with these thangs. I hope that spread you got scared you away from that Fresno Fiasco. Here's something from Dimes place, the last column is O/U

11/26/13 11:37:44 AM 8.5/-110 OFF
11/26/13 12:17:44 PM 8.5/-110 71-110 (Open)
11/26/13 2:17:45 PM 8/-110 71-110
11/26/13 4:37:43 PM 7.5/-110 71-110
11/27/13 9:07:44 AM 7.5/-110 71.5-110
11/27/13 12:47:44 PM 7.5/-120 71.5-110
11/27/13 12:57:47 PM 7.5/-120 71-110
11/27/13 1:17:48 PM 7/-110 71-110
11/27/13 6:17:44 PM 7.5/-115 71-110
11/28/13 1:17:43 PM 7.5/-110 71-110
11/28/13 4:57:59 PM 7.5/-108 71-105
11/29/13 12:37:44 AM 7.5/-105 71.5-105
11/29/13 3:47:44 AM 8/-105 71.5-105

I DO believe ya though, cause I just saw the closing line of - 10. A moot point - Heck, it coulda been a pickem and it woulda made no differeence :( . I got a little lucky with that one... er, NO, NO, I didn't change my mind and fade the bastages (LOL).... thems were my bastest bet for this week and that usaully means I pley them as a side, single play for 3 or even 4 units. INSTEAD, I put them in two different parlays (I pretty much ALWAYS put different teams in multiple parlays}. That is, one paricular team can only be in ONE parlay, no duplicates. INSTEAD, I put them in both of the parlays I made (only ONE unit on each), so I wound up cuttimg my losses. I'm sorry I wrote that comment for Fresno, MJers. I LUVED that pick and so did the $$.

Here's a bummer - this week I only used the TOP/"STRONG" rated teams and left out the "SOLID" plays. Well here';s the record so far....

1-2

Guess what, if I woulda included the SOLIDS it would be 3-2 for the games that got played so far. Oh well. AND... . . I also paid a price for fading a $$ plick when I went against Wash St. SOM-IN AH- BEACH .

I ran a few more games on the monster with the hope I could add to the listing... no dice.... every game came up a WEAK plick OR a "NO PLAY".

Here's the deal for me.. I agree wth yas who like USC and I'm making that one my "new" bestest bet. They have a sizeable advantage over UCLA asfaras the margin they beat the spreads by and they are looking/getting even better as their competition gets stronger. I also like the fact that they're home. Even though the $$ like the Bruins, it shows a calculated spread as -9 to USC. Go figure. Actually, it uses completely different calculations to come up with a spread. That just gives me another prospective to rate the pick.

Just to make sure there's something here for any of yas that come back --> that there N.D./Stanford game? Well, it has N.D. as a WEAK pick. But I'm going with that one. Yes, Stan. wins a LOT, but they really don't put excessive points on the board and they just might not have enough clock time due to their "run, run, run" game to overcome 15 1/2 pts. AND - their running game advantage over N.D. is surpassed by N.D.'s passing advantage over them despite the different ratings for each team's Q.B. I don't see them being able to give the Irish that many pts.

Enjoy the games.
 

Jimboski

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Gotta share this ....

Gotta share this ....

Posting this cause a KEY game still has a quarter to go and it may be an idea somebody likes....

I like them "sucker" (parlay} bets but ONLY play a few of them and the single, side bet or (2) bets are aside from these. Fresno did in my two main parlays this week, but ...... .. . EVERY TIME I put in the serious parlays I put in a REAL sucker (multi teamer) bet parlay that I did no research on at all. No stats, trends, SHEETS. Just from what I think about the teams. It's only for a fraction of a unit and sometimes I think it's the best way to playem... :00011

Pending 5 Team Parlay
Pending 12/1/13 1:00pm NFL Football 430 Cleveland Browns -280* vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Win 11/30/13 12:00pm College Football 353 Duke +7 -140* vs North Carolina
Win 11/30/13 3:00pm College Football 378 Nevada +14? -110* vs BYU
Pending 11/30/13 3:30pm College Football 391 Baylor -12? -120* vs TCU
Win 11/30/13 3:30pm College Football 404 New Mexico State -3 -120* vs Idaho

I checked the scoreboard BEFORE starting this reply and Baylor could use some HELP; me too this week. :s1:

EDITED: And, that 's why thems are SUCKER bets - ONE stinkin losah kills 3 or 4 winnahs. SHEEET !'ve had enough luck with them small bet multi-teamer parlays in tbe past, enough to make me continue doing them. They don't cost much and could tuen a winning weekend into a bonanza or a disaster weekend into a so/so one. The small cost of them things is just about negligible.
Really sucks when your team is looking sooo good for MOST of the game and you watch them struggle in a quicksand puddle late. BTW, that's why I stopped playing college hoops. You know, just waste your time for 2 hours or so watching the dang thang but sooner or later you just gotta realize that your fate is gonna be determined in the last 20,10, TWO (?) seconds of play.

Oh.. and GOooo Fighting Irish too. (How bout that Bama/Auburn game?)

Goooo Trojans. Oh.. .. . AND BEARS.
 
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Jimboski

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reply

reply

Thank you for the picks. I really do like the way you go about picking them. Does the $$ work on other sports? It seems like the most consistent way of picking winners is to use a method like yours. Which appears to me to be: not bet at the beginning of the season, wait for the data and then let the math make the decisions.

Sorry, Clint, I didn't ignore your question..... I made this $$ specifically for COLLEGE footsball. when I started making it, like 6 or 7 yrs. ago. The first step was to do something called a correlation coefficient analysis on TWO seasons of college FB to determine all (the're plenty of them) the factors that affect the ATS result. AND how much of an effect each one has on the ATS outcome. Better believe that took awhile to get done.

I also made one for the NFL and it seems to work too, but not quite as good as the college version. The NFL sheet is not nearly as sophisticated as the college one but it does work on the same principle. I just used the ORIGINAL factors I got from the college work described above. That means if can't be as good as the college sheet. Well, SHOULD not be as good IF we beleive there really is something to this project. But, like the college sheet, it does adjust that data as each week goes by. Like I wrote once befoe - this year it's a real hassle to feed the data by hand into these monsters; not like it used to be with that site the used post their football spreadsheet data every week. Just too much work and time to run the NFL version now.

Tellya, I'm watching the late games as I write this and Im afraid I'll be looking for the Preperation H soon. :eek:
 

Jimboski

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OK, let's wrap this baby up

OK, let's wrap this baby up

Sheet record for this week: 3-3

My record? Well, when you fade the $$'s winahs and play it's losahs... it ain't good.

I did cut the loses with a 2nd half UCLA pick and caught Notre Dame pretty good. No parlay winnahs; close but no ceegar.

I'm sure all sane MJers will be looking for that FLA. ST. vs. Duke spread for next week? My guess is to jump on it real quick like IF you like FSU. Still, we all know that being sane is no guarantee of winning at this stuff.

Giambi-Juice, I'm thinking that your thoughts about just playing the SHEET's picks and keeping our noses out of making the decision whether or not to play it's picks is good advice. It does feel great to fade it and come up with a wiener, but, in the long run, you'll/we'll pay the price for doing that. Not saying I won't do that again, but I sure as hell won't do that as much as I did this week.

Oh... don't know why, but I'm really liking Cleveland's (NFL) chances today to cover.

Good luck y'awl.
 
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