Spreadsheet picks - week 1

[Jimboski]

THESE ARE NOT SREADSHEET picks; I need at least 2 or 3 weeks of data before I can get the SHEET in gear. "SPREADSHEET" is in the title to this thng cause some folks may remember it from the plays I posted last season . Some MJers may remember that last year the SHEET got off to a tremendous start from the "1/4 pole" (week 4 when I started using it) to the halfway mark and then faltered (mediocre or even a bit worse) after that. I've used it for a good no. of years and that is the first time it didn't improve on it's picks as the season progressed. Still can't figure out why that happened. :mj03:

VERY UNFORTUNATELY, I put down small moola at the beginning of last season on it's picks and gradually raised the stake$... BAD, BAD, move. I woulda had one hell of a season IF i QUIT AT THE HALF WAY POINT. ugh! Check out the archives; what a freaking, great start it had that lasted for several weeks. We'll see what happens this year when I start posting it's picks if there's some interest here.

I usually START playing the college footbawlers at WEEK 3 or 4 (using the SPREADSHEET picks), but I'm gonna give it a go on my own right from week 1 this year cause I usually get off to good start ON PAPER every year. Dang IT!

Going with small (betting wise) parlays to start off this year and the picks below are the ones I got going so far. Sorry, couple of the plays already were already played and there's a couple of tennis plays in them. I've ALWAYS liked my chances at picking mixed sports and if you can do that, I really recommend doing it cause IMO, I like my chances of coming up with TWO footsbawl wieners and maybe TWO tennis wieners and don't like my chances of coming up with FOUR wieners in any one, particular sport. IF basebawl wasn't a dart game (FOR ME, that is) I'd love to add ONE of them picks, but I learned NOT TO DO DAT for certain. :nono: I don't want to even think of how many single basebawler picks added to a parlay that costed me by killing an otherwise "winning" parlay in the past. Once we get to week 4 - I'll start using two teamers and straight, single plays on the college footbawl dudes and the bet amounts get more serious ($). Right now, I got two parlay alive yet (there was a third one that lost - went with Wash St. -7 vs. Rutgers, (my dang Alma Matre) and that play killed it real quick like.

Note that I bought from 1/2 to 2 pts for a couple of the football games. I always do that for parlays, NEVER for single bet straight,side action plays.

These picks were based on:
Returning offensive and defencive starters
Coaches
Recruites with plenty of potential
Previous matchup records between the two schools
Teams that have unusally good/bad Home or Away records for the past couple of years. (BTW, this one didn't apply to this week's plays)

In that order.

Pending 8/30/14 4:00pm College Football 179 Arkansas/Auburn Over 56 -140*
Pending 8/30/14 12:00pm College Football 330 Illinois -10 -120* vs Youngstown State
Pending 8/30/14 8:30pm ATP Tennis 121 Nick Kyrgios -108* vs Tommy Robredo
Pending 8/31/14 11:00am ATP Tennis 141 Marin Cilic -185* vs Kevin Anderson

Win 8/29/14 9:00pm College Football 149 Colorado State/Colorado Under 59? -110* (didn't buy a thing for this one)
Pending 8/30/14 9:00pm College Football 203 LSU/Wisconsin Under 50 -110*
Pending 8/30/14 7:00pm College Football 370 Texas Tech -29? -120* vs Central Arkansas
Win 8/26/14 11:00am ATP Tennis 197 Kei Nishikori -325* vs Wayne Odesnik

Good Luck whatever you're playing this week.

 

[Jimboski]

Results

Results

NCAAF : 3/2

Only comment I have was with the Illinois game... "Was that game's closing line -17 ?" HUH? :0023
When I put that one in, the line was -10 1/2 and I only bought the hook (1/2 pt).

Adding one game for Monday:
Miami +3: Their Achilles Heel has been their passing defense and Im not finding anything good about the Cards NEW quarterback. Canes have a good record asfaras starting the season like a pack of lions and there's little doubt that Louisville is gonna "bounce" (DOWNward, that is) after last year's OVERachieving record ESP. with only 5 returning defensive starters. Oh, BTW - you know what Miami's record is for the 10 games they were in with close game spreads (a field goal or less)? How bout 10-0. Without my good ole Spreadsheet's help I'm gonna go with the +3 pts. but something tells me I may regret it by not taking a shot with MOOLA LINE (+150).

G.L.

 

[WildBillPicks7]

GL Jimbo!!

I'm on the Canes as well even with frosh QB starting, he's a different animal than last year's clown.

I'm looking forward to what your spreadsheet puts out!!

Appreciate your info and hard work!!

:0074

 

[Jimboski]

Reply

Reply

GREAT to seeya, Wild Bill. I glanced through the usernames, but this place (zoo?) is just sooo action packed I didn't seeya. I ain't used to this much excitement, coming from the Horse Palace Room/"(quiet) Library" (UGH!)

Canes do look good with what little we have to go on this early in the season. HOPE we can nail that one. You know, you always have speed on your side with that team as well

I'll start fresh (record wise) with the SS plicks and postem; appreciate your interest. VERY disappointed in how it finished out last year's season.. SO MUCH unlike the way it did in the many previous years I've used it. Checked out the logic and equations in it 3X to make SURE that no bugs got into it (been using it a LONG TIME) and tested it with it's old results from past years.. NO BUGS FOUND If it does a repeat performance of last year, I guess it's time to retire the old Cash Cow.

Football ain't a science and it's really silly to think that a number cruncher could predict game results, but I got to be a believer after seeing how that thing did for quite a few seasons. I think it was around 2006 or 2007 that I can't even write here how it did in the BOWL games cause nobody would ever believe a thing I write here after reading it. I did post most of it's PICKS (no "L" in PICKS for that run.. LOL) in a different forum back then.

Glad you like the Canes too... . let's getem tomorrow night.

 

[Jimboski]

Game result

Game result

PERSONAL record is now dead even 3-3 (just what would be expected by :00011 )

A few comments on this game....

Miami SunShowers were just that. Absolute DULLSVILLE. Typical weekday college game.
Only one game, but Miami had the one-man-team look to me. Of course, that would be Johnson Jr. Dorsett really didn't show me anything.
Lastly, their defense has a shit load of POOR tacklers, first tackler just slows the runner up and then it takes two others to bring the runner down. Thinking they may be fade material vs. any of the big time offensive running teams.

Didn't notice anything much for the Cardinals. Their rookie QB is plenty better than what I expected. He's only gonna get better ESP. after they talk to him about what he does before he thows the dang ball. I think their staff can correct those (ball security and too much time) problems.

I'm looking at a few games for this week (2) but I gotta check them out further to be confident enough to post or play any of them. Starting to like my chances with Overs/Unders better than side picks cause I did some "ON PAPER" plays for week 1 and the O/U's did pretty dang good.

Looking forward to seeing how the Spreadsheet thingy makes out. Gameplan is to use it starting week 4.

G.L. luck this weekend, Y'awl.

 

[gk51]

Good luck with your picks Jimbo. Looking forward to when the spreadsheet kicks in.

 

[Jimboski]

Reply and a couple for this week

Reply and a couple for this week

Thanks, gk51. Interest in the SS (used to write it -->,"$$") is what keeps me posting.

Nomally for the first couple of weeks I run it, I'd recommend using the SS to just see if it has a team YOU LIKE or just see how it does. Then start going with it's picks for more and more as the weeks progress. That is EXACTLY the opposite of what worked last season! Neva acted like that before. I purposely "bred" (yeah, I play the hosses) the thing to get better and better as the season progresses, IT SHOULD DO EXACTLY THAT too.

It's actually such a logical, complicated, scientifically (mathematics - wise) sound monster that it should be absolutely WORTHLESS for predicting an ATS score for a dang football game. But, it unbelieveably and easily held it's own against the odds for the 12 or so years I've used it. For two of those years, it was just unreal. :0

I should mention that it did have losing seasons for 3 of those years, but not one of them was a disaster and those two I mentioned above were $$ windfalls. Also, it usually has one very bad week during the season almost every year.

I tried to make reading this post worthwhile for yas by coming up with a couple of MY picks for this week and I gotta admit that I ain't very confident about them. Here's the two teamer I'll be on for this week.....

Illinois -6: mostly based on BIG 10 vs. Conf. USA (<-- so much for anybody tailing this pick ... LOL)

Kansas - 24 (brought it down from -26)
(1)Jayhawks are expected to improve this year due to changes made by Weis, (2) plenty of returning starters, (3) there record last year?... ah, did you see their schedule for last season?, (3) should be highly motivated vs. the cream puffs they'll be facing in their opener AT HOME .

G.L.

 

[Jimboski]

Halfway home

Halfway home

Illinois covered, that gets the tougher one done, now for the easier one.. UT OH.

Need one mo week of data and then it's Spreadsheet Shitty (how you speel dat?) ..er.. make that -->CITY!

 

[Jimboski]

Results - WAS 3/4s the way home

Results - WAS 3/4s the way home

Are we having fun yet... I SURE ain't... mutha jumpas ran exactly like my hosses did on Sat.

First quarter they covered MY spread (-24), second quarter, 0-0, third quarter they added 3, 10-7 and how bout that freakin 4fh quarter... ZERO -TWENTY ONE. SHEEEET!

Hope it's ok to mention this ... Kansas killed a parlay that had one play left to cash, it's an NFLer.. New England bought to -3. What to do? Brady or no Brady (think it's gonna be "Brady" though).. N.E. -3 at 2 units. Only had to buy the hook.

With more to go on, I'll be posting more college plays and then it's time for the Spreadsheet pLicks. I should mention that I don't just make picks off the top on my head.. I do research them or I wouldn't post a thing here before posting the SHEET's plays.

MY personal picks are 3-4 now, I think.

Happy NFLing

 

[gk51]

Jimboski

Jimboski

Are you going to start up the Spreadsheet picks this season? Week 5 and wondered if you have enough information for the spreadsheet. Looking forward to your selections.