Only one thought here, Michigan took Kansas to OT on the road :0003
2 UNITS
92243752 CBB[716] KANSAS STATE +7?-140 (B+1?)
2 UNITS
92243752 CBB[716] KANSAS STATE +7?-140 (B+1?)
ST VALENTINE'S DAY MASSACRE
- Thread starter GENO
- Start date
Could not get to the pending page for a paste,
1 UNIT at risk
CUSE - 210 W
A big price yes, take the dog, I am chicken :scared , plus I would need +10.5 to back W VA:nono:
:0003
1 UNIT at risk
CUSE - 210 W
A big price yes, take the dog, I am chicken :scared , plus I would need +10.5 to back W VA:nono:
:0003
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WELL I was right but wrong in the same post, btw, I bumped this to 2 units when I saw my buddy Hi-Lo Kaiser on the CUSE - 5. Stuck with the ML for my second unit got it at -220, wasn't gonna get greedy you know.
Why was I wrong ? Well it took +11 to push and +11.5 to cover the dog. I had a personal number on this one at - 6.5, too close to 5 to lay the points but way off from the +6.5 & four insurances points I like to hold or withhold IF I am playing the favorite. That was why I wanted +10.5. Just a little insight into my CBB approach.
Why was I wrong ? Well it took +11 to push and +11.5 to cover the dog. I had a personal number on this one at - 6.5, too close to 5 to lay the points but way off from the +6.5 & four insurances points I like to hold or withhold IF I am playing the favorite. That was why I wanted +10.5. Just a little insight into my CBB approach.
- Feb 26, 2001
- 13,593
- 164
- 63
So you saw no value at -5 but though the ML was value at -220? Those are equivalents. You are just risking more money. I just don't get how buying these points is EV+. If you can't find value at the 11/10 line you aren't going to be a winner. Buying 1.5 points raised your break even point from 52.4% to 58.3%. Hitting 55% in the sports with tons of liquidity in the market is hard enough.
Let's take an example of the two bets you made tonight. They are perfect examples of how you are losing cash. You cost yourself money on both of those plays by purchasing these points. I haven't looked through your posts lately but when I do see them I just find it hard not to comment. I don't really expect you to realize this but I figured I would add an opposing view if any squares are seeing these posts. You need to lose your ass before you learn.
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The whole point you are misssiing T/U is that you can't lose your ass if you are always cashing winning tickets,:mj07:
IF I had a crystal ball I should have played K St on the Money Line, I realize that now, but had NO way of knowing it before tip-off,.. althought I seriously, and I mean SERIOUSLY considered a HALF UNIT on it when the Kansas number climbed late.
I saw K ST +230 to +265:nono:
So spend your time telling every K ST backer they screwed up at Laying -110 to get a +5.5 or 6, instead of playing the money line, $$
You play your way, I will play mine, do you buy fire insurance on your home? Isn't that wasted $$$$, IF it never burns?
Another capper here I respect had HAW -4 as his bigger play last night, don't think a WINNING ticket at -170, is better than a loser at -4:shrug: :shrug: :shrug:
THE POINT YOU and many others miss is you GOTTA KNOW, approximately what the number should be.
The number is as sharp as it has ever been, IMHO on most games, and a few are to MISLEAD the masses. Maybe like last night's Kansas number.
Do YOU think every home court in CBB, is worth the same number of points?
My numbers had NEV as a 1-2 point favorite, it would have been an excellent ML/DOG + points middle shot with the heavy side being the DOG, I was thinking seriously about that too with a 3 unit + pts/1 unit ML shot, I would have really looked pretty smart with those tickets this AM but I DID NOT play, and I did not play it because YOU think it is a bad Idea, I passed because of the travel factor and I would not have a chance to look at the half time.
I cash tickets:0074
IF I had a crystal ball I should have played K St on the Money Line, I realize that now, but had NO way of knowing it before tip-off,.. althought I seriously, and I mean SERIOUSLY considered a HALF UNIT on it when the Kansas number climbed late.
I saw K ST +230 to +265:nono:
So spend your time telling every K ST backer they screwed up at Laying -110 to get a +5.5 or 6, instead of playing the money line, $$
You play your way, I will play mine, do you buy fire insurance on your home? Isn't that wasted $$$$, IF it never burns?
Another capper here I respect had HAW -4 as his bigger play last night, don't think a WINNING ticket at -170, is better than a loser at -4:shrug: :shrug: :shrug:
THE POINT YOU and many others miss is you GOTTA KNOW, approximately what the number should be.
The number is as sharp as it has ever been, IMHO on most games, and a few are to MISLEAD the masses. Maybe like last night's Kansas number.
Do YOU think every home court in CBB, is worth the same number of points?
My numbers had NEV as a 1-2 point favorite, it would have been an excellent ML/DOG + points middle shot with the heavy side being the DOG, I was thinking seriously about that too with a 3 unit + pts/1 unit ML shot, I would have really looked pretty smart with those tickets this AM but I DID NOT play, and I did not play it because YOU think it is a bad Idea, I passed because of the travel factor and I would not have a chance to look at the half time.
I cash tickets:0074
- Feb 26, 2001
- 13,593
- 164
- 63
As I stated in my post, this really isn't for you. I wish you GL in your endeavor. :0074
By the way nowhere in my post did I have a problem with someone getting + money on the ML. That is lowering your break even point. I hope you keep cashing your tickets, but you are swimming against the current. But ML bets aren't all bad. If you think they are EV+ bets you make them, but the value you get for buying half points are a quick trip to the poor house.
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thanks FCP, great ride on tonight's CBB train ride also 10-1 on A plays
Tex Tech + 19.5 never in doubt
Mich St + 17.5 ditto
TB NHL +1.5-260 NBA Kid had them as a ML play they lose by one.
Drake + 17 Thanks HiLo
V Tech -175 Liked myself just outside my limit for a spread play, thanks for the post to reinforce HiLo!:toast:
Thanks Hawkeye for a 4-1 night:toast:
only loss an OT switch to an over during OT
and
I owe someone else a word of thanks for the UNDER 138 Seton Hall :toast:
I cash tickets, with a little help from my friends:0074
Tex Tech + 19.5 never in doubt
Mich St + 17.5 ditto
TB NHL +1.5-260 NBA Kid had them as a ML play they lose by one.
Drake + 17 Thanks HiLo
V Tech -175 Liked myself just outside my limit for a spread play, thanks for the post to reinforce HiLo!:toast:
Thanks Hawkeye for a 4-1 night:toast:
only loss an OT switch to an over during OT
and
I owe someone else a word of thanks for the UNDER 138 Seton Hall :toast:
I cash tickets, with a little help from my friends:0074
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