Stat Help Needed - Wildcard
- Thread starter Scarecrow
- Start date
I believe that wilcards were in existence from the very 1st season of the NFL-AFL merger, 1970. At that time each conference had 13 teams in 3 divisions with 5 teams in each conference's East Division. Central and West divisions all had 4 teams. Eight teams would advance to the playoffs: the 6 division champions and 2 wildcards, one from each conference.
Before the merger, the NFL had 4 divisions of 4 teams each while the AFL had 2 divisions of 5 teams each. I doubt that at that time the NFL had any wildcards and it is possible the AFL had a couple wildcards but I doubt that also. But don't know for sure.
By the way I believe the 4 NFL divisions were known as the Central, Capital, Coastal and can't remember the other.
Before the merger, the NFL had 4 divisions of 4 teams each while the AFL had 2 divisions of 5 teams each. I doubt that at that time the NFL had any wildcards and it is possible the AFL had a couple wildcards but I doubt that also. But don't know for sure.
By the way I believe the 4 NFL divisions were known as the Central, Capital, Coastal and can't remember the other.
Pre-1990: Each conference sent three division winners, plus two wildcards, to the playoffs. Weekend #1 ALL THREE division winners got a bye. The two wildcard teams would play each other. The winner of that game played against the #1 team in the conference, while the other two rested teams played against each other.
I'm not sure if this was always the case all the way back to 1970, or if maybe it started out with just one wildcard team per conference? That seems reasonable.
1990-2001: An extra wildcard team was added. Division winners with the top 2 records received byes, while the division winner with the worst record and all three wildcard teams played off in Week 1 of the playoffs. The weakest division winner was always made the #3 seed, and the other teams were seeded in order. Higher-seeded winner got team #2 in the next round; lower-seeded winner played against #1.
2002-now: Still 6 teams per conference, but now 4 divisions per conference. It's still an important change though.
Now, we see the #5 seed as being (usually) a very strong team, whereas #4 is usually weaker by comparison. Take this year for example in the AFC. Tennessee was a #5 (12-4), Baltimore was #4 (10-6 despite playing 6 games against relatively weak division rivals Cleveland, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh). Most years now, the way things fall, the #4 team in at least one of the conferences is going to have it's hands full with a real, quality #5. Mathematically, the odds of the four best teams in a conference all coming from different divisions is unlikely.**
In prior years though, it was the #4 team that was usually very strong...and the #3 team that was a "weak" division winner. But #3 and #4 would NEVER meet in the playoffs (unless they both made it to the conference final...it's the only way possible).
It changes the entire dynamic of the playoffs having this new system!
============================================
** - If my math is correct, the odds of the four best teams in a conference all coming from different divisions is about 9%.
The first team can come from any division.
The second team has a 75% chance of not being in the same division (3 divisions out of 4).
The third team has a 50% chance of not being in one of those two divisions.
The last team has a 25% chance of being in the final division.
75% x 50% x 25% = 9.4%
Of course teams in the same division play each other twice a year, instead of once or not at all...which increases the chances of a non-division winner having a worse record than would otherwise be the case because they may have had to play the #1 team twice... etc etc.
Ok, that's more than you asked for and my head hurts now...
I'm not sure if this was always the case all the way back to 1970, or if maybe it started out with just one wildcard team per conference? That seems reasonable.
1990-2001: An extra wildcard team was added. Division winners with the top 2 records received byes, while the division winner with the worst record and all three wildcard teams played off in Week 1 of the playoffs. The weakest division winner was always made the #3 seed, and the other teams were seeded in order. Higher-seeded winner got team #2 in the next round; lower-seeded winner played against #1.
2002-now: Still 6 teams per conference, but now 4 divisions per conference. It's still an important change though.
Now, we see the #5 seed as being (usually) a very strong team, whereas #4 is usually weaker by comparison. Take this year for example in the AFC. Tennessee was a #5 (12-4), Baltimore was #4 (10-6 despite playing 6 games against relatively weak division rivals Cleveland, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh). Most years now, the way things fall, the #4 team in at least one of the conferences is going to have it's hands full with a real, quality #5. Mathematically, the odds of the four best teams in a conference all coming from different divisions is unlikely.**
In prior years though, it was the #4 team that was usually very strong...and the #3 team that was a "weak" division winner. But #3 and #4 would NEVER meet in the playoffs (unless they both made it to the conference final...it's the only way possible).
It changes the entire dynamic of the playoffs having this new system!
============================================
** - If my math is correct, the odds of the four best teams in a conference all coming from different divisions is about 9%.
The first team can come from any division.
The second team has a 75% chance of not being in the same division (3 divisions out of 4).
The third team has a 50% chance of not being in one of those two divisions.
The last team has a 25% chance of being in the final division.
75% x 50% x 25% = 9.4%
Of course teams in the same division play each other twice a year, instead of once or not at all...which increases the chances of a non-division winner having a worse record than would otherwise be the case because they may have had to play the #1 team twice... etc etc.
Ok, that's more than you asked for and my head hurts now...
After checking the above site out I can confirm that the Wildcard format started in 1970 with the league merger.
Miami and Detroit were the 1st wildcard teams that year.
Prior to the merger there was no wilcard. One year (1967 I believe) the Rams and Colts both finished 11-1 in the same division and only 1 of them went on to the playoffs!
Miami and Detroit were the 1st wildcard teams that year.
Prior to the merger there was no wilcard. One year (1967 I believe) the Rams and Colts both finished 11-1 in the same division and only 1 of them went on to the playoffs!
Thanks, ocelot, for your input and the NFL historical link...and thank you GM for your detailed explanation (really more than I needed, but very much appreciated...sorry for the headache).
Now I can proceed with my number crunching for the likely SB winner.
Scarecrow
Now I can proceed with my number crunching for the likely SB winner.
Scarecrow
per northcoast,
the wild card round was started back in 1978 & only 6 times has a team been involved in the wild card round & advanced to the super bowl. none of the teams this year are wild card teams.
good luck
the wild card round was started back in 1978 & only 6 times has a team been involved in the wild card round & advanced to the super bowl. none of the teams this year are wild card teams.
good luck
