Station Casinos Handicapping Contest: Week Three

[WhatsHisNuts]

YTD: 6-4
LW: 4-1

This is a really tough week but I'm growing fonder of these picks as the week moves on.

Lions +7: Last year, I would have jumped on Philly because this line stinks. However, if you look at the Sagarin Ratings, Philly should be a 9.5 favorite so this line is actually not as stinky as it looks.

Bengals +3: The Seahawks aren't going to stop this offense. This is my best bet on the board.

Dolphins +3: I have decided that the Fins will be the team I choose to screw my brains out. Last year it was the Browns, this year its the Dolphins. On a serious note, Miami is not playing badly. Jets should be a 5 point fav according to Sagarin so the line isn't that far off. Thanks to 2006, this is a great value play.

Titans +5: I'm just hoping this isn't the Saints-Falcons Monday Night replay from 2006. The Aints have their backs against the wall @ Home on MNF so that's a bit scary. The Sagarin line shows TEN -1.5, so that scares the piss out of me but I have to go with it.

Cowboys +3: The Bears got me good last year, but I think it's time I start getting some payback. Line is accurate, but the Cowboys are the better all around team. Should look similar to the SD-CHI from week 1.

:scared FIVE ROAD DOGGIES! :scared

 

[smurphy]

Gary - how high do you need to finish in order to make some money?

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

I believe it is top 25. Last year I finished 61st out of over 300, and that was after a disastrous 4 week finish to the season. I heard someone say there is only 200 people in it this year, but I think the payout is still thru top 25.

By the way, thanks for not pushing me on the entry fee in front of Erica. If you caught it, the actual entry fee is $1k.

 

[The Sponge]

I believe it is top 25. Last year I finished 61st out of over 300, and that was after a disastrous 4 week finish to the season. I heard someone say there is only 200 people in it this year, but I think the payout is still thru top 25.

By the way, thanks for not pushing me on the entry fee in front of Erica. If you caught it, the actual entry fee is $1k.

Gm you ever get my emails? Miss the give and take this week.:shrug:

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

Gm you ever get my emails? Miss the give and take this week.:shrug:

Yeah, sorry about not getting back to you. I am not crazy about many games this week so I don't think I have that much to offer. Either way, I'm going to send you my spreadsheet for Week 3. Take a look at it and let me know what you think. This is what I use to make all my picks in the NFL.

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

I've been using the Sagarin Ratings a lot so far and I'm starting to piece together some correlations. Could all be coincidence, but I think it is worth a look.

If I was going solely off of Sagarin Correlations through the first two weeks, here would be Week 3's best bets:

Houston +6
SD -4
Cardinals +9
Lions +7
Falcons +3.5
Saints -5
Giants +3.5

Very curious to see how this pans out.

 

[smurphy]

By the way, thanks for not pushing me on the entry fee in front of Erica. If you caught it, the actual entry fee is $1k.

No problem. What she doesn't know (in this case) won't hurt her. ...And that amount isn't actually very much when you spread it over the whole season.

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

No problem. What she doesn't know (in this case) won't hurt her. ...And that amount isn't actually very much when you spread it over the whole season.

Well, I'm dealing with someone that goes into a depression when they lose $5 in Penny Slots over a 5 day vacation. Thanks again.


dance1

 

[smurphy]

Well, I'm dealing with someone that goes into a depression when they lose $5 in Penny Slots over a 5 day vacation. Thanks again.


dance1

:mj07: :mj07:
I know the type. I wish I was that type. Instead I chase that $5. Then I chase the $20 I lost trying to get the 5. Then 100, 500, next thing you know I've lost Satation Casino contest money.:shrug:

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

After the 1pm games, I am 0-1-1. Not all bad. I get 1/2 point for pushes, so I'll take what I can get.

Watching the Cinci-Seattle game and Cinci's defense doesn't look so hot.

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

Unreal. The Bengals got me a push and another 1/2 point but that damn decision to go for 2 cost me a full point. Instead of being 1-1-1, I'm 0-1-2. Crap.

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

I've been using the Sagarin Ratings a lot so far and I'm starting to piece together some correlations. Could all be coincidence, but I think it is worth a look.

If I was going solely off of Sagarin Correlations through the first two weeks, here would be Week 3's best bets:

Houston +6 - Push
SD -4 - Loser
Cardinals +9 - Winner
Lions +7 - Loser
Falcons +3.5 - Loser
Saints -5
Giants +3.5 - Winner
Very curious to see how this pans out.

Updated Sagarin Correlation Theory plays. Looks like it will depend on how MNF turns out. In this case, I sure hope it craps the bed so I win my contest play.

 

[The Sponge]

You see the Falcons game bud. Sometimes betting these bad teams just kills ya. We had two dropped touchdown passes and had to settle for a fgoal. Just killed us. can't blame this one on Harrington. Just pitiful receivers. Plus the fact that Delone got hurt didn't help at all. He kept us in the game the whole time then bam he is hurt. I knew we were ion trouble them.

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

How'd you like the effin dropped TD by Dallas's Crayton...then miss the FG????

I'm gonna lose it if the Cowboys lose this one. This just sucks.

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

The Cowboys win gets me to 1-1-2 with one game to go. This is goin to be a big game for me tonight.

GO TENNESSEE!!!!

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

Finished up 2-1-2 on the week and I'm sitting at 8-5-2 YTD (9 points). I'm happy. The grind continues.

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

Hopefully, this won't rub anyone the wrong way but I made a mistake with one of the lines I posted for this contest last week. I posted Bengals at +3, but they were actually +3.5 in the contest. I thought I had them at 3.5 but looked back at this thread on Sunday and saw I only had it listed at +3 and was understandably pissed.

This is the first line correction I have ever posted so I hope you don't see this as anything but a simple mistake.

UPDATED/CORRECTED RECORD:
Week 3-1-1
YTD 9-5-1 (9.5 points)