Statistics deceptive this time of year

[IE]

OMAHA, NEB. ? At first glance, it looks a mismatch. North Carolina won 53 games, Mississippi State only 38. North Carolina won its league tournament; State went two and out.

The nation's baseball coaches ranked North Carolina No. 3 in the last USA Today/ESPN poll; State was unranked. Opponents hit .292 against State pitching. Opponents hit only .246 against North Carolina. The Tar Heels ranked No. 4 in the NCAA's final RPI ratings, the Bulldogs No. 22. North Carolina has won five of six previous meetings with State.

Indeed, every single statistical category would appear to favor the Tar Heels.

But this is college baseball and this is Omaha in mid-June.

If the favorites won every time, Mississippi State's season would have ended two weeks ago in Tallahassee. Instead, State has knocked out Atlantic Coast Conference powerhouses Florida State and Clemson on back-to-back weekends. North Carolina, tonight, would be the Bulldogs' third successive ACC victim.

"It gives us a lot of confidence knowing that we already have beaten two really good ACC teams to get to where we are now," State catcher Ed Easley said. "Now we face another ACC powerhouse, but at least we've proven already we can play with the best in their league."

WINS AT FSU CARRY WEIGHT

For the record, North Carolina finished in between Florida State and Clemson in the final overall ACC standings. FSU won 24 league games, North Carolina 21 and Clemson 18.

Also, for the record, State's run through FSU and Clemson captured North Carolina's attention. Garrett Moore, the Heels' sophomore second baseman, put it this way: "Anybody who goes down to Florida State and beats those guys two games is really good. Florida State was probably the best team we saw."

North Carolina lost two of three at Florida State in late April when the Seminoles were ranked No. 1 in the nation.

"I'm not going to say we were surprised to see Mississippi State beat Florida State and Clemson, because when you reach this point everybody is good and anybody can beat anybody," Moore said.

Which is my point precisely.

When you reach this stage, it usually comes down to what happens on the mound, which team's pitcher has the best day. Tonight it's North Carolina right-hander Robert Woodard against State lefty Justin Pigott. The two are similar in styles. In fact, said State catcher Ed Easley, Woodard "is like a right-handed Justin Pigott."

Woodard, like his team, has the numbers on his side. He is 33-5 as a Tar Heel, and he has been in this position before. Just 363 days ago, he threw a three-hit shutout at Clemson in the College World Series. And get this: Woodard has won 28 of his last 31 decisions, with the three defeats coming on the road against nationally ranked teams.

"He's a command guy," said State assistant coach Tommy Raffo of Woodard. "He's not overpowering, but he knows how to pitch. He has total command of his fastball, a breaking pitch and a change-up. He'll throw any of them at any time."

But the Bulldogs are confident in Pigott, who has won three of his last four decisions, including victories over both Florida State and Clemson. He held FSU scoreless on three hits over seven innings. State coaches like the matchup of Pigott against a Tar Heel lineup that features five left-handed swinging starters.

DOGS, ACC OLD FOES

MSU coach Ron Polk said Friday we shouldn't make too much of the fact that State is going up against a third straight powerhouse.

"It's another great team and it's another great pitcher," Polk said. "It just so happens it's another ACC team."

That may be, but it only stands to reason the Bulldogs' confidence level gets a boost from having won four straight games against two of the ACC's elite teams.

And there's still another factor to be considered where the ACC and Mississippi State are concerned.

Said Easley, "None of us who were around the last two years have forgotten who ended our seasons. It was Miami the year before and Clemson last year. Both of them are ACC teams. The way I look at it, we still owe that league."

 

[IE]

Rice has plenty to prove at Omaha



Owls set mark for offensive futility last year at CWS

OMAHA, Neb. ? When Rice designated hitter Kenny Ford drove in Aaron Luna with a groundout to second base in the fourth inning of the Owls' 2006 College World Series victory over Miami, no one knew that run would be the Owls' last of the tournament.

The Owls could not land the knockout blow against Hurricanes starter Danny Gil, but when Cole St. Clair, Bobby Bell and Bryce Cox hunkered down to protect that 3-1 lead, few expressed concern. But what appeared to be a solid start to the Owls' fifth CWS appearance ended with back-to-back shutout losses to Oregon State and a CWS record for consecutive scoreless innings (23).

"It was a little embarrassing for back-to-back games to (be shut out)," shortstop Brian Friday said. "One game you go up against a great pitcher, and it can happen to anybody. We definitely went pretty cold with the bats, and I don't expect that to happen now."

As the top-ranked Owls (54-12) open the 2007 CWS against Louisville (46-22) this afternoon at Rosenblatt Stadium, their dubious record drapes over them like an albatross.

After failing to score during the final five innings against Miami, the Owls mustered only seven hits in two games against the Beavers, who rode their pitching to a national title.

'Still in question'
One year later, the Owls are dogged by their stretch of ineptitude, not because they are flashing back to those zeros on the scoreboard, but because others won't let the manner of those losses rest.

National pundits have questioned the legitimacy of the Owls' title hopes because their offense has done little this postseason to erase the memory of a year ago.

"Oregon State did a great job pitching," center fielder Tyler Henley said. "But you can hit great pitching. It's up to us to get the job done, regardless of how good the pitching is."

During that 23-inning stretch, the Owls hit .122 (9-for-74) and stranded 13 runners. This postseason, they've hit just .275 and scored 22 runs in five games.

"If you look at our playoffs, we haven't really scored a whole lot," pitcher/first baseman Joe Savery said. "I think our offense is still in question; I wouldn't assume anything with us, especially up here. We're going to see some quality arms and some good teams."

Rice coach Wayne Graham stressed a more sound hitting approach last fall, one geared toward success in Omaha.

More than changing basic philosophies, Graham insisted the Owls battle at the plate. He wanted every at-bat to be an exhaustive fight, one in which even an overpowering pitcher felt as though he'd been taken through the wringer.

When the Owls struggled with situational hitting earlier this season, Graham reinforced those notions of scrapping and clawing, and not surprisingly, Rice responded positively. But compared to last year's squad, the Owls have inferior offensive numbers in batting average (.310 to .315), on-base percentage (.406 to .409) and slugging percentage (.466 to .504).

Those statistics won't silence the critics.

"People jump on anything that is historic. Anything," Graham said. "Hitting comes and goes, and because it comes and goes, the best teams can go into a mini-slump."

Past bright spots
And with that, Graham launched into a historical profile of the Owls' postseason offensive highlights, noting their 14-run outburst against Stanford in the 2003 CWS final and the pounding they put on LSU in the 1995 NCAA South Regional at Baton Rouge. Graham has heard whispers in the past questioning the Owls' offensive capabilities, but producing over the next 12 days at Rosenblatt Stadium would surely bolster his position.

"You try to address the issues, and sometimes you're better able to address the issues after you fail. Hopefully," Graham said, with his fingers crossed, "we've done that."

 

[IE]

Cards were waiting for this





New coach began preparing them on Day One

OMAHA, Neb. -- Dan McDonnell made it to the College World Series as a player and came close on several occasions as an assistant coach.

So after he was hired as the head coach by the University of Louisville last June, McDonnell immediately started prepping his team for the day U of L made its first appearance in the World Series.

That day is today. The Cardinals will take center stage in the opening game against Rice at 2 p.m. EDT in Rosenblatt Stadium. The game will be broadcast on ESPN2.

"We have been preparing for this, and I think our guys are ready," McDonnell said. "We have been open to the media; we have signed autographs since basketball season, just doing things to get the kids used to this type of atmosphere.

"It's different here, and we're just trying to take it in stride. We have done a lot of things for this day along the way. You don't want your kids to be rattled."

The Cardinals (46-22) enter the Series as one of the hottest-hitting teams in the country and don't figure to be rattled, but they have a tough opener.

Rice (54-12) has one of the best pitching staffs in the country. The Owls also have the experience. Rice is making its sixth trip to the World Series and won the title in 2003.

The Owls are No. 1 in the current Collegiate Baseball poll; U of L is No. 8.

"We're not intimidated, because we play good baseball," U of L senior left fielder Isaiah Howes said. "We're not scared of anybody. We're just going to go out and play like we know how, and if it's not good enough, then it's not good enough.

"But we know what we're capable of doing. We like coming out of the shadows."

The Cards have been the underdogs since this season's NCAA Tournament began. U of L, which had never won a tournament game, had to fret about even getting in this season.

The players settled down once the bid came, McDonnell said. The Cardinals have scored 88 runs in eight NCAA games.

"We're just having fun," first baseman Daniel Burton said. "We just worry about ourselves and try to play relaxed. Our method for trying to keep this going is by not really talking about it."

Many expect the opening game to be a battle of strengths: Rice's pitching staff vs. U of L's hot bats. The Owls have allowed only eight runs and 31 hits in five tournament games.

Rice will start right-hander Ryan Berry (11-2), who was named National Freshman Pitcher of the Year. He has thrown seven-plus innings nine times with 119 strikeouts in 116 1/3 innings.

"There's an old saying that good pitching beats good hitting," Berry said. "We'll see."

Rice's Joe Savery (10-1), the team's leading hitter at .360, was supposed to be the star pitcher but was slowed by shoulder surgery early in the season. He also plays first base but was drafted as a pitcher in the first round by the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Owls also have a sensational closer in Bobby Bramhall (6-2), who has 76 strikeouts in 58 innings. On offense, the Owls hit .310 as a team.

U of L will start Zack Pitts (10-3), who shut out Oklahoma State for seven-plus innings in the super-regional's first game, but the bats have been the story.

The Cardinals hit .336 in the super-regional. Five regular position players are batting better than .300 this season, led by Howes' .392 average. Boomer Whiting leads college baseball in steals with 73, and Logan Johnson leads the team in doubles with a school-record 27.

"When anybody scores that many runs, a lot of bad pitches are being made, there's no doubt," Rice coach Wayne Graham said. "They have been hitting it. The key to (pitching against) Louisville is making good pitches."

The Cards know they aren't expected to win, but that's something they have heard all season.

"We know we're the underdog," right fielder Pete Rodriguez said. "You can talk about Omaha and think about Omaha, and you never know if it's really going to happen. But now that we're here we soaked it in a little on Sunday and Monday, but when it came Tuesday for practice we were really focused.

"We're ready, and now we have a new agenda."

 

[IE]

Rice rookie doesn't throw like one



Owls start Berry against Cardinals

OMAHA, Neb. -- When Rice played in the College World Series a year ago, Ryan Berry was fresh off his senior prom and was watching the game on television.

This year, Berry will be on the mound as the Owls' starting pitcher against the University of Louisville in the opening round of the College World Series at Rosenblatt Stadium today. The 6-foot-1, 195-pound right-hander wasn't highly recruited out of high school.

"I honestly thought I had no shot to make the traveling team," Berry said. "Now, the opening-day starter in Omaha, it's a dream."

Injuries and Berry's potential forced the Owls to give him a shot, and the kid ran with it, Rice coach Wayne Graham said.

Berry (11-2) has started 18 games and has a 2.71 ERA with 119 strikeouts in 116 1/3 innings.

The 18-year-old from Humble, Texas, was named Collegiate Baseball's National Freshman Pitcher of the Year and is on the U.S. National team.

"He doesn't pitch like a freshman, he doesn't walk around like he's a freshman, he doesn't talk like he's a freshman," shortstop Brian Friday said. "He acts like he's a junior or senior and has been doing this forever. That's the most impressive thing."

One thing that has made Berry so successful on the mound is that he has a fastball, slider, spike curveball and changeup he can throw anywhere in the count, Graham said.

"A four-pitch pitcher is rare in college baseball," Graham said. "What Berry has done for us has helped our staff tremendously. He's been great for us."

Berry tied the school record for victories in a season by a freshman. The tie is with two former Owls, including the 1995 mark of St. Xavier High School standout Matt Anderson.

It wasn't expected.

Berry wasn't drafted out of high school, and most schools recruiting him were from out of state, he said. But after the Owls beat Texas Christian in an early-season tournament that included Baylor, Berry was the talk among the coaches.

Neither opponent had recruited him.

"But how do you recruit 86 miles an hour in high school?" Graham said. "Well, you watch him really close, and then he gets 90. We were there when he hit 90, and we were there when he hit 91. We were just there."

Berry has been sensational since he was given a shot early in the season. He's thrown seven-plus innings nine times and has won five times against teams that made it into the NCAA Regional. He was named National Pitcher of the Week in February.

Now, he'll get the ball to open the World Series.

"This has been an amazing experience," Berry said. "I just hope to be able to put the team in a good position. (Louisville) has been on a hot streak, and they're a good-hitting ball club. I try to work quick, and when you have four pitches and you can locate them, I just try and get outs. All I try to do is eliminate outs."

 

[Kramer]

IE, do you have an opinion on the 11.5 total for
the NC/MS matchup, looks like an under to me,
just curious. TIA

 

[IE]

yes, i would lean to the under.