Kotys DAD.........Heres the activity I am doing.............
Activity Objective:
This activity will help show you an application of simulation and statistics in real scientific research. .
Science Background:
In 1997, the magazine Nature featured an article describing a recent find of a nest of 22 Troodon eggs at Egg Mountain near Choteau, Montana. The eggs had hatched, but the lower two-thirds of each shell was intact and fossilized in limestone rock. These eggs provide valuable clues to the nesting and reproductive habits of the Troodon. Based on the arrangement physical characteristics of the nest, paleontologists determined that the eggs were laid in pairs. If this were indeed the case, the nest would provide valuable evidence for scientists trying to determine evolutionary links between dinosaurs and birds.
If they were laid in a random manner, it would suggest that the reproductive system of the Troodon was like that of modern-day crocodiles. This, in turn, would represent evolutionary evidence for a dinosaur-reptile link.
On the other hand, a pairing of the eggs would suggest that the Troodon laid the eggs in pairs and over an extended period of time. Modern day birds lay their eggs in a similar manner, only they do so one at a time. However, the evolutionary forerunners of birds possessed two working ovaries. Thus, a paired arrangement of the eggs would represent evolutionary evidence for a dinosaur-bird link.
So, here?s the big question: ?Was the placement of eggs the result of purposeful biological behavior or just a random event ? a lucky coincidence that occurred by chance?? In this activity, we will see how scientists used simulation and statistics to answer this question.
Math Notes:
First, you need to find out what a ?normal? distribution is. I am also interested in something called the Empirical Rule. This rule tells us the proportion of data that will be within one, two and three standard deviations of the mean ? providing the distribution is normal.
OK, back to the eggs: The question facing the consulting statistician was how to establish that the eggs were actually paired. Of course, it is possible that the eggs were laid in a random manner and they just appeared to be laid in pairs.
The statistician first developed a quantitative measure of ?pairedness.? The minimum average paired distance (MPD) is obtained by examining each of the possible pairings of the eggs in the nest, measuring the distance between pairs, and selecting the pairing that minimizes the sum of the distances between each pair. The MPD is this sum divided by the number of pairs.
The statistician then used simulation to construct 1000, randomly laid dinosaur nests. For each of these "virtual" nests, he determined the MPD. Thereafter, he constructed a histogram of the 1000 MPD's to create a distribution of MPD's for randomly-laid nests. In other words, the histogram (constructed via simulation) represented a picture of what nests would result if the eggs were truly laid in a random manner.
He then compared the MPD of the original nest with the histogram of MPD's and determined that it was very unlikely that the nest was laid in a random manner. The reasoning underlying this is as follows:
From the graph, it can be inferred that if a dinosaur nest is laid by random means, the MPD of the nest will probably be about 3.5. It is possible that a random nest could have an MPD of about 2 or 5, but both of these events are less likely than the random nest with MPD of 3.5. Likewise, an MPD of 1 is even less likely to occur than is an MPD of 2. In general, obtaining an MPD of 1 or less is so unlikely to happen that, were it to happen in an actual nest, we would question the assumption that the nest were truly laid by random means.
This is exactly what happened in the actual research. The distribution of random MPD's was shaped much like the image above. However, the MPD of the actual nest was very small. In fact, if we use the scale of the figure above, the MPD of the actual nest was about 0.5! The chance of this happening if the eggs were truly placed in the nest at random is remote ... so remote that the researchers can justifiably question whether or not the nest is truly random. That leaves the alternative ... the eggs in the nest are paired.
The Activity:
To determine whether or not the eggs in the nest were paired, the consulting statistician simulated the laying of 1000 nests. In each nest, the eggs were laid by random means. Although the original nest contained 22 eggs, one can consider a smaller number of eggs and still develop an understanding of the research and the role of simulation in the research. In our activity, we will consider nests of 4 eggs.
The Scenario
News Flash: Researchers have stumbled across a nest of 4 Troodon eggs. The eggs appeared to be paired, but the researchers would like more conclusive evidence.
The Research
You are going to simulate the laying of "random" nests of four eggs each, determine the MPD of each nest, and construct a histogram of your results. Based upon your results, you will develop a rule: If the MPD of the actual nest is less than (SOME VALUE), then I reject the claim that the eggs in the actual nest were laid in a random manner.
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Calculate the MPD for each nest. To do so, label the eggs in each nest (1, 2, 3, and 4). There are 3 possible pairings of the eggs in your nest:
Pairing 1: egg 1 with egg 2, and egg 3 with egg 4
Pairing 2: egg 1 with egg 3, and egg 2 with egg 4
Pairing 3: egg 1 with egg 4, and egg 2 with egg 3
For each pairing, find the average paired distance between the centers of the paired eggs. For example, for pairing 1, use your ruler to measure the distance (in cm) from the center of egg 1 to the center of egg 2, and the distance from the center of egg 3 to the center of egg 4. Add the two distances and divide by two. This average is the average paired distance for pairing 1. Repeat the process for pairings 2 and 3. The MPD is the minimum of the three average paired distances.
Repeat this process for 6 nests.
Based upon your results, identify a rejection value V. The rejection value is a number V such that if the MPD of the actual nest were less than V, then you would conclude that the four eggs in the actual nest were not laid in a random manner. Justify your value of V.
According to the Law of Large Numbers, true trends in the data are only revealed by a sufficiently large sample.
What is the connection between the Law of Large Numbers and this simulation activity?
OK.......I did this activity and came up with the following numbers
7.8, 5.3, 8.5, 6.5, 4.5, 5.0.................MPD NUMBERS.
I need to answer the following questions............
1. How would a nest that is laid by random means differ from one in which the eggs are paired?
2. What is the connection between the Law of Large Numbers and this simulation activity?
3. What is my rejection v...????
PS.....I did this from 54 nests and my numbers are
7.8,5.3,8.5,6.5,4.5,5.0
5.8,4.8,7.0,5.5,6.5,7.1
3.4,5.1,5.5,4.6,8.4,3.2
2.6,4.3,4.5,3.2,3.8,4.0
6.0,5.2,4.1,5.2,6.9,4.9
4.2,8.4,8.7,8.9,7.4,3.9
7.8,6.4,7.8,9.4,4.2,3.5
7.9,5.7,9.6,10.2,9.6,9.9
2.5,3.5,6.5,6.5,6.5,4.0...........since the eggs are pretty close together for this number of times, I would have to conclude the are being layed in pairs and not randomly since if they were being layed randomly these numbers would be more erractic. Is this correct?
