Lay the lumber on pickup trucks, bad breath and body odor giving 11.5 on Thursday. Might be my only play all tourney. Good luck all.
Steers & Queers....
- Thread starter Nick Douglas
- Start date
for possibly the only game you may bet on in the tourney, you sure picked a crappy game.
If I remember correctly, Princeton almost beat us in Austin last year. One of our players hit a 3 at the end to win it. Princeton is a bad team but they're good at it.
GL Nick.
If I remember correctly, Princeton almost beat us in Austin last year. One of our players hit a 3 at the end to win it. Princeton is a bad team but they're good at it.
GL Nick.
Wilson,
You have no clue about handicapping. Stay out of threads where legitimate handicappers post.
Monk,
The value was at 11.5. You can't just give away half points on lines this tight. Game opened at 12 and I wanted 11.5, preferably 11, if I was going to play it. If you play games at bad numbers you're going to be like Wilson and lose all your money over the long term.
To explain it mathematically, each half point is worth about 10 cents around -110 and by playing lines that are a half point off you increase the 5% ROI point (the goal for all of my plays) from 55% to 57.3%. In my opinion on this game there is no value there having to give that extra edge to the book.
You have no clue about handicapping. Stay out of threads where legitimate handicappers post.
Monk,
The value was at 11.5. You can't just give away half points on lines this tight. Game opened at 12 and I wanted 11.5, preferably 11, if I was going to play it. If you play games at bad numbers you're going to be like Wilson and lose all your money over the long term.
To explain it mathematically, each half point is worth about 10 cents around -110 and by playing lines that are a half point off you increase the 5% ROI point (the goal for all of my plays) from 55% to 57.3%. In my opinion on this game there is no value there having to give that extra edge to the book.
I have to agree with Nick here. (OUCH)
Looking at the numbers, Vegas is either F'n crazy giving Princeton this many points or they know the public is going to goble them up.
Looking at the road scoring numbers for each of these teams and the scoring numbers for the last five, one would have to jump on Princeton with their tourney history getting these points against a Texas team coming off a massive blowout loss.
I'll tell you were this game is at...Rebounding
Texas will crush this team ugly and I'll lay what I have to.
GL
edit
my line...-12
Looking at the numbers, Vegas is either F'n crazy giving Princeton this many points or they know the public is going to goble them up.
Looking at the road scoring numbers for each of these teams and the scoring numbers for the last five, one would have to jump on Princeton with their tourney history getting these points against a Texas team coming off a massive blowout loss.
I'll tell you were this game is at...Rebounding
Texas will crush this team ugly and I'll lay what I have to.
GL
edit
my line...-12
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Nick, your initial post suggested to lay the lumber on Texas -11.5. This, to me, implied that you had confidence in UT covering by atleast 12 points. Even though the line went up .5, that would still give you a push and no loss. So if your mindset was that Texas was going to crush them, why would half a point have such an impact on your play?
the title of this thread is politically incorrect and might be considered offensive, please adjust accordinglly....bovines have feelings too....w/the way the chalk has performed so far, points seem like a gift today....:shrug:
Nick, a legitimate question for you.
I understand your reasoning behind ROI and why you don't find value at 12, but have you ever kept track of all of these games you pass on due to .5 movement and calculate loss of profit had you played the game at the new line? I think for your reasoning to hold up you would have to do this over a period of time to calculate a true ROI.
I understand your reasoning behind ROI and why you don't find value at 12, but have you ever kept track of all of these games you pass on due to .5 movement and calculate loss of profit had you played the game at the new line? I think for your reasoning to hold up you would have to do this over a period of time to calculate a true ROI.
well if the line went up to 12.5 from 12, then I would understand his reasoning because that could equate to a loss. but when the line goes up only to make an even number, which would only give you a push had it landed on it, why would you back off of it? it just doesn't make any sense to me.
saint,
You are right that ROI is always an approximation. You never know it exactly. That said, one of the best ways to make money betting sports is to hit off numbers and stay away from everything else. The line opened at 12 and that was probably a good line. I still like Texas to cover 12, but it is just not strong enough for a wager recommendation. At 11.5, I think the lean turns into a play. Good luck to you all, especially those who really need it like Wilson.
You are right that ROI is always an approximation. You never know it exactly. That said, one of the best ways to make money betting sports is to hit off numbers and stay away from everything else. The line opened at 12 and that was probably a good line. I still like Texas to cover 12, but it is just not strong enough for a wager recommendation. At 11.5, I think the lean turns into a play. Good luck to you all, especially those who really need it like Wilson.
I will not utter another word about the plight of the american bovine, have to go w/your instincts/principles....agree w/Monk you need the 12 no matter what, anything over that is a loss, don't see any real difference, I know the hook can kill you on the off number , but tough on an even w/chalk... win/push scenario, if it is that tight w/your system would it be even be worth a shot?
Good Luck either way...
Good Luck either way...
Monk,
A push when you could have had a half point better is still a loss in my book. The bottom line is always line value. The people that make real money in this game know that. I'm not one of those people but I try my best.
A push when you could have had a half point better is still a loss in my book. The bottom line is always line value. The people that make real money in this game know that. I'm not one of those people but I try my best.
keep up the good work, Nicky! Keep supporting those 10 dollar bets with million dollar strategies. :thefinger
