Steers & Queers....

[Felonious Monk]

Do you have natural blonde hair or is it highlighted? Because that was one of the worst attempts at reasoning in some time. Not that it would surprise me after this roller coaster thread.

I'm no professional capper like some of you big wigs in here but I would have rather chosen to buy the hook down to -11 to increase my winning % even more. WINK WINK

Good luck in convincing yourself fellas, I'm done here.

 

[Nick Douglas]

Monk,

Give up gambling on sports. It will save you money in the long term.

 

[Wilson]

Monk..better listen..God has spoken :tongue

 

[GENO]

FM, I care not what Nick said about his play, my post is all about simple math, no reasoning needed.

GO check my play thread you will see a lot of -130's I buy points not half points.

He who pays the piper names the tune. I am done also.

 

[Wilson]

I don't understand how you make money laying all that juice..you would have to hit 55% just to show a profit.

 

[Nick Douglas]

You can make money paying juice if you pick your spots. I like to avoid saying the word, "never," but I think it would very, very difficult to turn a profit playing a lot of favorites at high juice.

 

[Felonious Monk]

Monk,

Give up gambling on sports. It will save you money in the long term.

Touche. The quote on your page only gives me affirmation that if you can't do it, then I can't either.

"I think I am probably done for the week. Obviously it is very disappointing to post four consecutive losing weeks."

Nick's Free Pick Page

 

[hellah10]

I dont even know what this thread is about anymore :shrug:

 

[doochuk]

Geno, I think we can all agree about the percentage differential. No matter how you try to explicate it, that half point rise had no bearing on losing that bet. It's a PUSH! You can't win the game by 11.7 or 11.8 points so why throw up a red flag that it is no longer a sound play at -12? He even stated that this may have been his only play in the entire tournament, obviously conveying a strong lean. It works both ways in NBA and College so what's the difference?

I dunno, maybe it's just me? :shrug:

it's not just you monk.......i understand your reasoning 100%....not trying to choose sides here but i thought the same exact thing that monk did........u like it at -11.5 goes to 12 you stay off it...that does not make sense......that 1/2 pt should not matter one way or the other......the worst that happens at -12 is a push...(that is the only factor that changes)......it seems pretty simple really---

 

[kickserv]

I still say wait until the game is done.......if the fav wins by three....then bet the fav at -2.5....you'll win every time :tongue

 

[DR STRANGELOVE]

here is my $.02

I see where both Nick and Travis are coming from, they are both correct in their own way.

 

[TMS31078]

What's Going On?

What's Going On?

What am I missing here? Nick, I will have to say you take the animosity cake on this board, but why you do I really don't know. I read your post after I had made my bet, TX -11 (-120). But why is everyone so mad at Nick, if you don't agree with his posts/picks then don't play them is all, but why jump down his throat? Nick I enjoy your picks/posts, so keep them coming. As far as "lay the lumber" I don't knwo why people are thinking that has to do with money, even with units, only an individual player knows their bankroll and how much they should or are willing to play on any one game.

 

[lenniethelock]

yea its simple like it at11.5 got to like it at 12,unless they were going to win by the ever popular11.6.if you even said it was at 12 then didnt like it at 12.5 i could maybe understand that,cause it would take it to a new number.

 

[Nick Douglas]

Tell you guys what. I will book your action. Just call me up with your bets and on every spread that has a (1/2) in it, I'll take an extra half point because it doesn't matter if you push, right? Every +6.5 is a +6, every -7.5 is a -8, etc. No need to worry about that useless half point because it will only cause a push, never a loss, right?

Just let me know when you agree to that and that way I can retire from handicapping and just worry about collecting every week.

I finally figured out what got Monk so riled. It was the queers thing. Duh. Texans are good folks from the ones I met. Definitely the most fun guys to have around a blackjack or craps table in Vegas. I'd recommend that anyone go to Vegas during NFR at least once just to experience how much fun it is gambling with cowboys.

 

[hellah10]

I could fill my house up with dollar bills with all the money I lost by a half point

 

[picasso]

A couple comments about things mentioned in this thread.

First, a statement like "each half point is worth about 10 cents..." is at best misleading and at worst flat-out wrong. A book typically charges 10 cents to buy a half point. That is the ONLY association between a half point and 10 cents. How much a half point is worth depends on the particular pointspread. Obviously, the bigger the pointspread, the less a half point is typically worth. For example, would anyone equate buying on or off 25 as being the same as buying on or off 2 in college basketball? Not even close.

I checked my database for this season's college basketball. I show a closing line of -11.5/-12/-12.5 occurring 153 times. Of these 153 instances, the favorite won by exactly 12 only twice for 1.3% of the time. 153 is not a big sample size, but I suspect the result will not deviate by much for sufficient sample sizes.

Second, NEVER buy a half point for 10 cents. You are wasting money. The books already have a nice edge. Why help them out even more? Sure, every so often that half point saves you. But, in the long run, not nearly frequently enough to justify the cost. Ask yourself this: if a half point is worth 10 cents (or more), would a book offer it to you for 10 cents? Of course not.

To the person who buys a point for every game at a price of -130: your break-even percentage is 56.52%. Break-even for -110 is 52.38%. Break-even for -120 is 54.55%. I know I won't change your mind. But something to think about...

 

[picasso]

Just wanted to follow up with one more comment. While I believe that Nick is overestimating the value lost when a college basketball line moves from -11.5 to -12, he is correct in saying there is SOME value lost. I've read a lot of responses saying that betting the game at -12 would result in a push and thus no harm. While I can certainly understand how some might view it this way, it's really not quite correct. I've been trying to think of a way to illustrate this. While I wish I could state this better, let me toss this out:

Let's say you have $100 and are allowed to make exactly 100 bets at $1 per bet. To make this example easier, let's assume the bets are vig-free. For every game you win, you get back $2. For every push, you get back $1. Let's say the lines are really sharp and you went 50-50 and thus get your $100 back...or so you thought. Your bookie Guido comes back to you and says "that one game that landed on 12...your line was actually -12 not -11.5...". Therefore, you actually go 49-50-1 and he pays you $2 for each of the 49 wins and $1 for the 1 push for a total of $99. Thus, instead of breaking even, you finished down $1.

Hope this example helps to clarify things. Every half point does indeed have SOME value. How much value it has depends on a number of parameters and can vary widely.

 

[CapMan]

Here's the difference, the 1/2 only matters when you are turning a potential Push situation into a loss situation, 11 to 11.5 does matter, it eliminates the push and increases you loss ratio. Moving from 11.5 to 12 increases your Push ratio but DOES not increase Loss ratio. Its just silly to me. Nick, I know you have a respected reputation and all, but I doubt you've won millions in Sports Gambling either...No one can Cap the bounce of a ball.

11.5 to 12 = -115 to -125....not that intimidating

 

[Wilson]

How the fawk can there be VALUE LOST if the bet pushes at 12???

He doesn't lose a penny..nada, nothing, zilch. Are you guys fawking idiots? This is starting to piss me off

Don't let Nicky spin this by talking about ALL 1/2 point moves...we are specifically talking about the Princeton line move between 11.5 and 12. Nothing more and nothing less!

Nick, give me your phone number...I'll place some bets with you..get my email from Jack.

 

[Wilson]

thank you cap man..finally somebody with common sense.