Let me try to put it another way. Let's say you bet the game at -11.5 and it landed on 12. You check your account and see that they changed your line to -12. Would you feel cheated? Or would you say "no harm because it's the same as if I hadn't bet it"?
Steers & Queers....
- Thread starter Nick Douglas
- Start date
Line movement makes a confident Gamer wager more
My specialty is baseball. I see a game go from -120 to -130 and I double my units. Its like doubling down on a 10 vs 9 in BlackJack...not a sure thing, but you have to be aggressive to win $$
If W. MIch goes to -1.5 today I'm not calling of the Dogs, I'm calling the Bookie!!
My specialty is baseball. I see a game go from -120 to -130 and I double my units. Its like doubling down on a 10 vs 9 in BlackJack...not a sure thing, but you have to be aggressive to win $$
If W. MIch goes to -1.5 today I'm not calling of the Dogs, I'm calling the Bookie!!
Nick, your the moron!! Just because you can write makes you smart:nono: :moon: The object is to win and what was said earlier, 11.5 to 12 is no difference IMO. If you gamble yr round then most of the time it will even out. 55% is the goal, but if you ML favorites then 55% might not get it done, or vice versa.
Nick does this because he has no life and needs attention, which he has obtained is objective.
Nick does this because he has no life and needs attention, which he has obtained is objective.
picasso said:
That's hardly the same. That would be getting cheated!
It seems to me that people are reeeeeealy trying to overthink, and overrationalize this.
If I get this straight, there are two camps:
A) Make the bet at 11' and pass on 12
B) Make the bet at 11' or at 12
I can see both arguments, to an extent.
There is no doubt that both camps would rather get the game at 11' (That should be a no brainer) If it lands on 12, we all win. Now, I have to agree with the 12 bettors, in that they aren't lossing any money if it lands on 12. I can only assume that the 11' camp is saying "hold out for the 11', and you will increase your win potential". Again, this is a correct. Sheer math dictates that you will get more wins in the long run, than the 12 bettors, when a game lands on the 12.
I think the confussion comes from the 12 bettors saying, "We didn't lose anything", and the 11' bettors saying, "But we won, and you didn't, so you are losing!"
But wagering, is not a perfect world. You just can't always get the best number. We would all love to, but you just don't know where the number will go. That's part of the gamble of gambling!
I might have the "Nick Douglas" camp wrong, but I was thinking that his thought went like this: (And I'm sure he will correct me if I am wrong!)
He is willing to put, let's say, 220 on that game. If he puts it on at -12, he is locked in. Now, the numbers shifts to -11', and he is screwed. Now, he can in some way, shape, and form, bitch that he screwed himself out of a half point by betting too soon. Thus, a 12 point win would feel like a loss.
(Like I said.......I'm just trying to figure the mindset, here.)
But we can all find points in time when this that or the other thing "cost us".
Let's take this another step.......
Suppose the line went to 12'? Now, all the guys in at 12 are wizzards because they get their cash back, instead of losing?
We have all won and lost games by half points, and will continue to do so. IMO, if a half point scares you from making a wager, you shouldn't be making it in the first place. I would rather handicap a game into my comfort zone, than buy it there.
yyz said:
Actually, I never suggested that one should pass if the line went from 11.5 to 12. That is Nick's perspective. My point is that there is value lost if one bets it at 12 rather than 11.5. Now when one reads it like this, the reaction may be "well duh -- of course betting it at 11.5 is better than betting it at 12...". But some of the responses seem to suggest that there is no difference because one would not get hurt by a push. Perhaps my first example in which one is allowed to make exactly 100 bets and goes either 50-50 or 49-50-1 better illustrates it. Perhaps it doesn't help to clarify things. As I said in that post, I wish I could say it better.
My main contention is that every half point difference does equate to some value, regardless of whether it moves one from a win to a push or from a push to a loss. How much that value equates to of course varies depending on other parameters (as I've tried to describe in earlier posts), but it's not 0.
Personally, I would probably still bet the game at 12. This may seem counter to my argument, but it's actually not. My view (as I mentioned in an earlier post) is that a final margin of 12 is not common enough for me to think that I've lost all value. If I felt I had an edge at 11.5, I probably still have an edge at 12. But I've still lost value in the long run because my bottom line would be different in the long run (as I tried to illustrate in the 50-50 vs 49-50-1 example).
Jack, PLEASE give me Wilson's email so that I can book his bets. I'll give you a $300 limit with a $1,500 settle figure to start. Remember the rules. Every line I give with a (1/2) gets moved up a "worthless" half point.
Also, pending Wilson's agreement to this arrangement, I'd like to RSVP for the MJ's Atlantic City bash and offer a round of drinks for everyone on Wils-- errr, me.
Also, pending Wilson's agreement to this arrangement, I'd like to RSVP for the MJ's Atlantic City bash and offer a round of drinks for everyone on Wils-- errr, me.
yyz,
You can't worry about always haviing the best number, you can only try your best. The difference in overall value was illustrated nicely in this thread already. If the game lands on 12 1.3% of the time then a play rated at 55% winners and a 5% ROI becomes 54.4% winners and a 3.8% ROI. In other words, for some people a play becomes a lean.
Once you make your bet, it certainly is possible that the line will move in your favor, thereby revealing that you bet a bad line. That's the game. To handicap the games well AND to bet good lines by understanding how lines are likely to move.
As I said earlier, I rarely pass because of a half point in line movement. This was an unusual case because it was a game not handicapped by numbers and because it was in a sport I rarely handicap.
You can't worry about always haviing the best number, you can only try your best. The difference in overall value was illustrated nicely in this thread already. If the game lands on 12 1.3% of the time then a play rated at 55% winners and a 5% ROI becomes 54.4% winners and a 3.8% ROI. In other words, for some people a play becomes a lean.
Once you make your bet, it certainly is possible that the line will move in your favor, thereby revealing that you bet a bad line. That's the game. To handicap the games well AND to bet good lines by understanding how lines are likely to move.
As I said earlier, I rarely pass because of a half point in line movement. This was an unusual case because it was a game not handicapped by numbers and because it was in a sport I rarely handicap.
