Strangest NFL line I've ever seen: Philly -20, O/U 36
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That's the thing...I could see it going UP! I watched a fair bit of the Houston game today...offence is totally non-existant.
This line says Philly wins 28-8. I'm thinking 8 points for Houston is being optimistic!
This line says Philly wins 28-8. I'm thinking 8 points for Houston is being optimistic!
well... good parlay chance....
overs and philly
or
unders and texans.
slim odds it will go other way.
overs and philly
or
unders and texans.
slim odds it will go other way.
I think the line is legit. I make my own lines before LV puts one out and I had Philly at -19.5. Houston may have one win, but they are a very poor team, and Philly is certainly one of the top 4-5 teams.
Houston is the biggest bore of a team to watch.....Dom Capers is completely unimaginative, the O-Line is the worst I have ever seen, James Allen looks like he is running in a sandbox, the receivers are horrible and can't catch, and rookie Carr is thrown into this mess.....
I can't see playing the Texans at all for a while.....unless they get 20 points against a bad team at home.....defense isn't that bad, but you cna't go out there after 3 plays every time.....special teams is also very poor.....
What really sucks is that they have to show this bunch on TV here....and we can't watch any other game while it is on.....i would rather watch the Solheim Cup replay then sit through an entire Texans game.....bad bad bad television.....then to make it worse, with all the punts and lack of sustained drives, you get double dose of repetitive commercials......
I can't see playing the Texans at all for a while.....unless they get 20 points against a bad team at home.....defense isn't that bad, but you cna't go out there after 3 plays every time.....special teams is also very poor.....
What really sucks is that they have to show this bunch on TV here....and we can't watch any other game while it is on.....i would rather watch the Solheim Cup replay then sit through an entire Texans game.....bad bad bad television.....then to make it worse, with all the punts and lack of sustained drives, you get double dose of repetitive commercials......
no.....i can barely afford cable......
Fox blacked out their game due to NFL policy so I had to sit through the Texans game....went to sleep in the first quarter and woke up in the 4th....missed a bunch of punts
Fox blacked out their game due to NFL policy so I had to sit through the Texans game....went to sleep in the first quarter and woke up in the 4th....missed a bunch of punts
This game reminds me of Oakland vs Dallas. On Oct 7 2001 Oakland was an 18.5 pt fav (I know I bet it higher) & the total was 41.5 & Oakland never came close to covering as they only won by 7 in a game Dallas could have won.
have you seen the Vegas recommendation to books for this game:
RECOMMENDED: NO SIDE TO TOTAL PARLAYS!!!
RECOMMENDED: NO SIDE TO TOTAL PARLAYS!!!
I think line will end up -21/35
28-7 final score?? I think it will be luck for the texans to score 7 points against the Eagles.
28-7 final score?? I think it will be luck for the texans to score 7 points against the Eagles.
Oh I agree, I think the line is legit Valuist. And I also remember that Oak/Dal game...even that game didn't qualify as line > 50% of total.
Gotta seriously consider those parlays. If Hou scores exactly 8 you cannot lose. I'm just not sure that Hou can actually score 7 or 8 here!
Would not be surprised to see the line rise and total fall either.
Gotta seriously consider those parlays. If Hou scores exactly 8 you cannot lose. I'm just not sure that Hou can actually score 7 or 8 here!
Would not be surprised to see the line rise and total fall either.
20 is alot! i'd becareful if u are backing the eagles,although they are playing houston!
eagles are coming off 2 big divisional wins! could struggle offensively as texans d is not all that bad!
but gl!
eagles are coming off 2 big divisional wins! could struggle offensively as texans d is not all that bad!
but gl!
I like most here watched all the Texan's game. Houston was really lucky Ind didn't win by 35. Ind kept shooting themself in the foot everytime they got to the red zone.
Houston really didn't show any kind of ability to produce point.
Their offense really sucks. If not for Wells, their running back,
this team would be 3 and out everytime. Phil should have no problem stopping Wells with a 8 man front and frocing Carr to throw.
I personally think Phil and Over teaser and Parlay would be a good small play.
Houston will proably get shut out.
Houston really didn't show any kind of ability to produce point.
Their offense really sucks. If not for Wells, their running back,
this team would be 3 and out everytime. Phil should have no problem stopping Wells with a 8 man front and frocing Carr to throw.
I personally think Phil and Over teaser and Parlay would be a good small play.
Houston will proably get shut out.
Side to total parlay is simply parlaying the side & total of the same game. When the line is 1/3 or more of the total, you have a mathematical advantage (so I am told, never proven it myself) by betting matching parlays. One on Fav & Over, and one on Dog & Under. One of those must lose, but the other, if it hits, pays 2.6:1, for a net gain of 1.6 units, after subtracting the 1 unit must-lose play. Of course, if both lose, you lose 2 units. With the line at over 50% of the total you should be in a huge mathematical advantage position theoretically with these two parlays.
I see a number of these games go Fav & Under though, when they don't hit. Which is my concern here...if Hou can't score, that could happen.
I see a number of these games go Fav & Under though, when they don't hit. Which is my concern here...if Hou can't score, that could happen.
A little data on how the really large favorites have performed. This is from my own data which I have collected over the past 6 years. Note, the biggest statistical category I have is "17?+ point favorites"... 20 is right off the map!
14+ Fav's ATS
2001: 4-2
2000: 7-4
1999: 3-4
1998: 3-3
1997: 5-3
1996: 0-4
Overall: 22-20, but 11-6 over the past two years.
17?+ Fav's ATS
2001: 1-0
2000: 0-1
1999: 1-1
1998: 0-2
1997: none
1996: 0-1
Overall: 2-5. Only 7 occurences over 6 years, hard to draw any conclusions from that.
(The 17?+ Fav's were also included in the data for 14+ Fav's)
14+ Fav's ATS
2001: 4-2
2000: 7-4
1999: 3-4
1998: 3-3
1997: 5-3
1996: 0-4
Overall: 22-20, but 11-6 over the past two years.
17?+ Fav's ATS
2001: 1-0
2000: 0-1
1999: 1-1
1998: 0-2
1997: none
1996: 0-1
Overall: 2-5. Only 7 occurences over 6 years, hard to draw any conclusions from that.
(The 17?+ Fav's were also included in the data for 14+ Fav's)
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I should also point out (if it's not already obvious), most of those 14 point covers in 2000 were the Rams. They kept laying the huge lumber each week, but amazingly kept covering anyways. Definitely an unusual team and a real oddity. They throw the rest of the #'s out of whack a bit.
