Strong early lean

[Jayhawk_Thor]

I have a very strong early lean on UCLA for Monday's game.

At first glance it would seem that they will be able to bottle the Gators perimeter play and find a way to throw Noah off.

Just seeing if I could get some other thoughts on this one before I go in depth with it. What are your guys's thoughts? We have 48 hours to get the last game of the year right... :com:

 

[Jayhawk_Thor]

One other thing:

UCLA backers can get over +100 on the money line right now... Is this the time to jump at that? Where do you guys see the line going?

I am hesitant to make a bet right now, because I think the public will be on Florida, and I might be able to squeeze a higher payout...

 

[pt1gard]

like ucla quite a bit, FL played much softer teams IMO, ucla throttled two good off. teams with diff. talents ... ucla is band of no names and hard names to pronounce in some cases.. bruins are west coast softies, pac-10 sux etc ... sec is powerhouse, etc... well, ucla and howland should have enuff def. to handle gators, i was on gators b4 +155, but will take ucla now +2 and win some money i hope


gl, gregg

 

[Jayhawk_Thor]

Gregg-

Where can I get +2? I see +1 at Pinny right now...

Also, are you going to pull the trigger on this now? Or hope to get some more value tomorrow evening (or Monday)?

This is a UCLA or nothing play for me right now, and it could potentially turn into a fairly big play... but as you say, public perception is probably that the Gators are a better team (more prolific offensively, more name players, NBA prospects, etc.)... and waiting is risky, but could pay off here.

 

[pt1gard]

gotocasino had +2 off the bat

tuff not to side with the hot defense, SB theory for me anyhow

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

JT,

FWIW, I think UCLA wins this game fairly easily. I don't think you should be too worried about taking the points. I don't think +1 or +2 is going to make much of a difference. And I could be wrong, but I am actually expecting the line to move the opposite direction, with people taking UCLA. They just put a severe ass-whooping on a team that everyone was in love with, so I would expect a lot of people to jump on them now. I'm going to have a lot on UCLA on the moneyline. As cliche as it may sound I do believe that defense wins championships, and I think it will turn out to be true in the Championship Game. Good luck to ya...

 

[Jayhawk_Thor]

Glenn-

The reason for a wait wouldn't be to get more points... I am going to be playing the moneyline as well...

And the differance between say +102 and +115 is substancial... I absolutely agree with you... points are not going to have any value in this one... straight up winner is going to cover...

 

[lowell]

refs will determine this one. if florida gets 28 fouls shots they will hit more than lsu. they also will hit some 3's . what i find interesting is what will be the tempo. if the total drops before tip off i may play bruins and vice versa.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Glenn-

The reason for a wait wouldn't be to get more points... I am going to be playing the moneyline as well...

And the differance between say +102 and +115 is substancial... I absolutely agree with you... points are not going to have any value in this one... straight up winner is going to cover...

My bad, I read your post wrong. I thought you were asking about where you could get more points. You may be right to wait on the moneyline. I couldn't wait though and grabbed it at +105. If I can get a better payout tomorrow I'll probably put some more on it then too. I really like UCLA in this game...

 

[nchiappetta]

I don't agree that the public perception is that the Gators are the better team. If people are watching this tournament, didn't they just see UCLA dominate LSU, the same LSU team they know beat Texas AND Duke? Along with the fact that Florida DID have somewhat of an easier track to get here, UCLA could be viewed as the play. IMO, it SHOULD be a close game but I am on Florida.