STRAIGHT PLAYS:
BEARS -9.5
SAINTS -9
HOUST -9.5
4TEAM, 7POINT TEASER:
BEARS -2.5
SAINTS -2
HOUST -2.5
RAVENS OVER 34
WAGER 1 TO WIN 2
The 3 side selections are based on an undeniable NFL trend: ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS ARE TERRIBLE THEIR 1ST NFL ROAD START. Rookie QBs are a combined 2-13 straight up (87% Against) and they are only 6-9 ATS (60% against) sine 2007. Since then only Mark Sanchez and Andy Dalton have been able to win their very 1st NFL road start. V.Young, Leinart, Edwards, Ryan, Flacco,Stafford, Freeman, Bradford, Clausen, McCoy, Newton, Gabbert and Pounder ALL WENT DOWN IN DEFEAT. That is an incredible trend that really makes sense. It must be an absolute harrowing experience popping your cherry on the road in the NFL. The crowds know your a rook and they let you have it, HARD! Fighting through communication issues with all new teammates, a hostile home crowd screaming for your immediate death and dismemberment along with the technical aspect of running the offense for real for the 1st time are all major challenges for a Rookie QB.
In week 1, we have Luck going into Chicago, RG3 going into New Orleans, and Tannehill going into Houston. 3 rookie QBs going into 3 VERY VERY difficult venues to get a win, versus 3 teams with realistic expectations of a playoff caliber season. All 3 games have a spread of 9 or 9.5..
How were Dalton and Sanchez able to win? Both of these games were predicted to be tighter games. Dalton and the Bengals were 6 point dogs at Cleveland Wk1 2011. The Bengals were a playoff team in 2011. He beat a Cleveland team that would finish the season a dismal 4-12.
Sanchez was with an established Jets team in 2009 that also went to the playoffs his rookie year. They were 4.5 point dogs at a very mediocre (8-8) Texan squad when he got his win.
In my opinion, we have 3 teams; Colts (luck), Skins (RG3) and Dolphins (Tannehill) that do not look as if they have a realistic shot at making the playoffs this year no matter how well the Rookie QBs play. These 3 rooks are going against 3 solid teams that are EXPECTING to make the playoffs in 2012-13 at stadiums that are EXTREMELY loud and difficult for any team to get a win. Last year they were a combined 18-6 at home but 3-0 SU in their home openers. and 3-0 ATS.
IN REVIEW: So, rookie QB's are 2-13 SU (87% against) in their 1st road NFL games since 2007. However, they are a PERFECT 0-8 (100% against)when their team is more than a 7point dog!!! Also when getting more than a touchdown, Rookie QBs are a mere 2-6 ATS first start on the road (75% Against). We are taking 3 sides with very realistic expectations of going 2-1 ATS and possibly 3-0.
Then we are going to tease the 3 sides down below a FG (taking advantage of the 8-0 SU trend history) and add the Ravens/Bengals game over 34. The Ravens new "sugar" no-huddle offense is going to be potent. Last year, the Ravens/ Bengals games produced 55 points at Balt and 40 at Cinnci. That was with a LESS potent Ravens offense and a MUCH BETTER defense. The Ravens always struggle to shut down teams with big receivers. It will be much more difficult without Suggs and J.Johnson. Yes, I know the Bengals have injury issues on the Offensive line. Rest assured, Dalton to Green will be good for at least 20 with the Ravens being good for at least that much.
With the information provided, if anyone has a better suggestion of HOW to play this, please share. But I do feel confident with the information and the picks. Good Luck Ya'll.
POSTED PLAYS RECORD - FOOTBALL:
2012-2013 2-2 (50.0%)
2011-2012 24-12 (66.7%)
GO ORIOLES!!
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