Strong Sagarin Plays (11/12)

[Scott4USC]

*System last week went 4-1 ATS with 3 OUTRIGHT winners.

*System is now 8-1 ATS and 6/9 underdogs have been outright winners!

:142hail: :142hail: :142hail: :142hail:

This week we have 5 plays.........


Georgia Tech +3.5 over Virginia

Sagarin Power Rankings

Georgia Tech: 79.83
Virginia: 75.19

Sagarin has G-Tech winning by 4.64 pts!

That is a difference of 8.14 pts from the Vegas line!


Central Michigan +1.5 over Western Michigan

Sagarin Power Rankings

Central Michigan: 70.42
Western Michigan: 66.36

Sagarin has C. Michigan winning by 4.06 pts!

That is a difference of 5.56 pts from the Vegas line!


Tulane +2 over Rice

Sagarin Power Rankings

Tulane: 58.36
Rice: 51.35

Sagarin has Tulane winning by 7.01 pts!

That is a difference of 9.01 pts from the Vegas line!


Central Florida +6.5 over UAB

Sagarin Power Rankings

Central Florida: 71.11
UAB: 64.94

Sagarin has C. Florida winning by 6.17 pts!

That is a difference of 12.67 pts from the Vegas line!


Stanford +4 over Oregon St.

Sagarin Power Rankings

Stanford: 75.39
Oregon State: 73.12

Sagarin has Stanford winning by 2.27 pts!

That is a difference of 6.27 pts from the Vegas line!

 

[buddy]

Scott,

Who was last week's loser?

 

[Scott4USC]

Scott,

Who was last week's loser?

Wyoming +3.5 over Utah was a loser.

 

[DIRTY Diapers]

Scott - Are you playing all of these games?

 

[DU46]

Scott,

Of these 5, which one's to you feel most confident in?

Keep up the good work!

 

[Hokie Fan]

As long as you dont start hyping an outright Wisconsin win again....

 

[Scott4USC]

Scott - Are you playing all of these games?

NO!

Scott,

Of these 5, which one's to you feel most confident in?

Keep up the good work!

Thanks. I am not sure yet. I'll let you know after I cap them. I am personally not betting this system blindly "yet." Others can and that is why I post it. Like I said before, it is more of an experiment for me and I am loving the results so far. This system makes logical sense and we are seeing the results! Last week I had Central Michigan as big play partly due to system and handicapping. I also had Oregon as small play. My advice is to see what teams the system likes and handicap it yourself. If you agree, BET IT! The only reason I say this is this system has not been tested before. That is what I am doing this year!

Congrats to all those who have been betting and believing in the system the last 3 weeks! :clap:

As long as you dont start hyping an outright Wisconsin win again....

Why? I put $500 on Wisky ML +400 because I felt strongly they could have won outright. I'd do it again! Can't win if you don't play. Unfortunately I lost my ML wager and 15 units on Wisky +10.5. My analysis on the game was wrong. I had bad info. $hit happens!

 

[Fabulous]

Didnt NIU cause another loss last week?

 

[gman2]

Didnt NIU cause another loss last week?

believe hes going with the early line where niu was a 3.5 point favorite, though the line went down to 3 right away and then 2.5 all week. it did open higher though. but it wasnt available for more than a day.

 

[NJHawgFan]

Scott,

Have you been able to track this over a full season? My experience is that power ratings are pure cr@p the first 2-4 weeks of any season until the bugs work out with actual on the field play. Is this why you waited until later in the season to start tracking it?

I like these type of contrarian systems as a means of whittling the field down to a few games. Then, you can cap the list. It limits the urge to play every game on the board.

I've used a similar system this season with the Statfox power ratings which are very similar each week to the Sagarin predictor factoring in the 3 pt home field advantage. I used a different angle, though. I would play the favorite assuming Vegas was begging you to take the other side. I discovered that games 8 points or more off of the Vegas line were gold playing the favorite, 9-3-1 on the season. The games that were less than 8 points blew chunks, though. ("Who is chunks?")

So, I tweaked it and started playing dogs when the difference was less than 8 points. Doing this, the system is 20-7-3 on the season.

Sorry to derail, but it warms my heart that I'm not the only one who looks at these types of plays.

NJHawgFan

 

[Scott4USC]

Didnt NIU cause another loss last week?

I have posted all my Sagarin plays the day the lines came out. No capping involved so good to put plays in right away before public changes lines. We want vegas #'s not public #'s going against Sagarin #'s. Remember one of the parameters is it has to be 5pts different from vegas #. I think 2 plays this week missed out by 1pt, but they miss out even if it does go 5pts more at end of week if public moves the #. It appears putting in Sagarin plays early has paid off # wise. It prob. evens out eventually. I personally buy pts at 3 and 7 and has paid dividends this year capping.

Scott,

Have you been able to track this over a full season? My experience is that power ratings are pure cr@p the first 2-4 weeks of any season until the bugs work out with actual on the field play. Is this why you waited until later in the season to start tracking it?

Yes that is why I waited. And NO I have not tracked this before. So this year it is more of an experiment. My system makes logical sense and has parameters that are centered around the Sagarin Power Rankings.

I like these type of contrarian systems as a means of whittling the field down to a few games. Then, you can cap the list. It limits the urge to play every game on the board.

I agree. Makes sense too. For example if team has injuries, a system like this doesn't take that into account. That is the negative in using a system.

I've used a similar system this season with the Statfox power ratings which are very similar each week to the Sagarin predictor factoring in the 3 pt home field advantage. I used a different angle, though. I would play the favorite assuming Vegas was begging you to take the other side. I discovered that games 8 points or more off of the Vegas line were gold playing the favorite, 9-3-1 on the season. The games that were less than 8 points blew chunks, though. ("Who is chunks?")

That sounds similar to this system. But remember, if a system "blows chunks" it is still a good system. FADE IT!

So, I tweaked it and started playing dogs when the difference was less than 8 points. Doing this, the system is 20-7-3 on the season.

Thats great. You should post it. Be interesting to track these type of systems and see what happens. I'll play my current system for big $$$ next year if I like the results. Same with yours. Looks solid and might take stab at it next season. Even if it works 1 year, might not the next but at least you are betting on a proven system.

Sorry to derail, but it warms my heart that I'm not the only one who looks at these types of plays.

:toast:

Good, maybe I'll bring out more posters who have systems similar to mine. My system makes logical sense. Vegas giving false favorite who Sagarin says should lose SU! You can post your system plays in this thread if you want. Just explain how it works so people know.

 

[DeDe]

scott, thanks for posting these. always play them and have been cashing

glty

 

[slickjim]

Great job!!!Thanks!!

 

[NJHawgFan]

You can post your system plays in this thread if you want. Just explain how it works so people know.

I think I'll start a separate thread to keep the clutter down in your thread.

 

[Hokie Fan]

Hey Scott,
Just pulling your leg buddy,
I loved that game too.....
Sorry if I hurt your feelings..

Hey what about $C this weekend..
I rarely play there games but I like em this weekend.

 

[Scott4USC]

Hey Scott,
Just pulling your leg buddy,
I loved that game too.....
Sorry if I hurt your feelings..

Hey what about $C this weekend..
I rarely play there games but I like em this weekend.

USC/CAL game is tough. I think USC is motivated and focused but CAL has played USC well 3 straight years. 2/3 @USC. I heard many CAL fans are selling tix to USC fans. Prob. 20k USC fans will be at the game and some say small chance at 30k!

USC is very very very banged up. If there is a team who has suffered more injuries than USC, I want to see that team. USC is DEPLETED on D yet Carroll makes this a very very competitive defense. Amazing job by Carroll. Media prob. has no idea how much this D has suffered this season.

But not being 100% on D is scary going against Tedford. This guy is an excellent coach and if you have weakness he will expose it. He also is not afraid to stick with a gameplan (like Weis @ND) 2 years ago USC was weak and starrting freshman at safety and Tedford attacked it all game with success. Last year USC took away the deep ball and Tedford threw short all game. Smart and consistent coach! CAL will try and play like ND against USC. RUN, RUN, and hope to convert 3rd down. RUN RUN and hope to convert 3rd down. Make your 3rd downs, you have chance to win! ND did amazing job converting 3rd downs. Can CAL? I don't think so and ND went against below average DB (#18 Walker) who has since been replaced and demoted.

All in all, it comes down to 2 things for me. Can USC stop the run? Cal has EXCELLENT RB"S and Excellent OL. USC has been excellent at stopping the run this year! If USC stops the run, they easily win and prob. cover. To easily cover, USC needs to force turnovers. USC is excellent forcing turnovers and Cal QB Ayoob will turn it over. I think both scenarios are likely so if both happen, USC will cover. If CAL doesn't turn the ball over and has some success rushing, CAL should cover and maybe even hang with USC all game.

So the question you have to ask yourself, can CAL run the ball and not have turnovers?

If USC was healthy on D, I think the answer would be quite clear. NO! USC is not healthy so there is no definitive answer. But if USC makes it to Rose Bowl, their opponent should face a healthy USC D, a D who was never healthy all year and people will be shocked!

As for the USC offense. Min. 35pts will be scored. USC will reach 50 if CAL turns the ball over. (just like Stanford turning the ball over LW) CAL offense will score between 14-27pts. You also have to factor Carroll always playing 2nd and 3rd stringers in 2h. Did it against Stanford and Stanford won the 2h against USC but USC had I think 44-7 halftime lead. Carroll doesn't give $hit about style pts or style wins.

If I was vegas and didn't care about getting 50/50 action, I prob. set the line at USC -13. I predict USC to win by 13, but CAL scoring bunch of pts in garbage time against USC reserves. Similar game to last week against Stanford except USC will not have a 44-7 halftime lead. USC will dominate and then let up with reserves. CAL isn't experienced enough on D to win this game.

USC 40
CAL 27

 

[Beezy25]

Thanks for posting this system...it helps a lot!!
I was looking at GT and UCF before i saw this thread and now that I see them on your list Im def. gonna play them both.

Thanks a lot Scott
B

 

[treefrog]

Scott-

I look at Sagarin occasionaly myself so I am by no means bashing the system. Like you and another poster said though, their ratings are way out there earlier in the season.

Does anyone know how he comes up with his opening ratings? They are worthless as they seem to be solely based on last year. Look how high UNC is rated by Sagarin in basketball....

 

[Scott4USC]

Scott-

I look at Sagarin occasionaly myself so I am by no means bashing the system. Like you and another poster said though, their ratings are way out there earlier in the season.

Does anyone know how he comes up with his opening ratings? They are worthless as they seem to be solely based on last year. Look how high UNC is rated by Sagarin in basketball....

Good question. I too would like to know the answer to that. Look at the NCAA hoop ratings. Duke is #1, UNC #2 and Illinois #3. How did he put Duke #1? Love someone to explain this.

Does Sagarin have an e-mail?

Like you said, power ratings are good AFTER few weeks. For my system, I waited over 5 weeks. So Sagarin has collected ton of data and should be accurate. I would like to use something like this for NCAA hoops. But that might take long time to do every night. NBA hoops would be easy. Might give that a try after couple more weeks. Maybe in NBA just take ML on all dogs that should be favs. Then the system doesn't need to hit over 50% to turn a profit.

 

[Scott4USC]

BOL today Scott

PS: Is there anymore strong Sararin plays after last weekks knock out punch

:bump: