Strong Sagarin Plays (11/5)

Scott4USC

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System is 4-0 ATS and 3/4 underdogs were outright winners! :eek:

Here are this weeks plays........

South Florida +3.5 over Rutgers

Sagarin Power Rankings

South Florida: 77.57
Rutgers: 74.12

Sagarin has South Florida winning by 3.45 pts!

That is a difference of 6.95 pts from the Vegas line!

***

Central Michigan +3.5 over Northern Illinois

Sagarin Power Rankings

Central Michigan: 71.50
Northern Illinois: 68.54

Sagarin has Central Michigan winning by 2.96 pts!

That is a difference of 6.46 pts from the Vegas line!

***

South Carolina +5.5 over Arkansas

Sagarin Power Rankings

South Carolina: 75.78
Arkansas: 68.33

Sagarin has South Carolina winning by 7.45 pts!

That is a difference of 12.95 pts from the Vegas line!

***

Wyoming +3.5 over Utah

Sagarin Power Rankings

Wyoming: 72.01
Utah: 68.68

Sagarin has Wyoming winning by 3.33 pts!

That is a difference of 6.83 pts from the Vegas line!

***

Oregon +1 over California

Sagarin Power Rankings

Oregon: 88.20
California: 75.27

Sagarin has Oregon winning by 12.93 pts!

That is a difference of 13.93 pts from the Vegas line!


*I did +3.5 instead of +3 on the games. I think it is smart to buy 1/2pt at 3. Plus the opening line 2/3 games was 3.5 and Pinny currently has it at -115 vig.
 
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Higgs

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I use a similar type of system. Do you happen to have a way to calculate the lines faster? I have been going through the games one by one week after week and its been taking a lot of time. Any help would be greatly appreciated. Good Luck with the system.
 

Scott4USC

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This prob. doesn't answer your question but what I do for this is use the Sagarin Ratings sorted by Conference. Since most of the teams are in conf. play it makes it fast and easy. Then I scroll down Pinnacle lines and anything I see at under 7pts and has chance of being wrong team favored I check. I am not 100% certain I have listed every system play but I doubt I missed any.

Whose ratings do you use? What is your system?
 

Higgs

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I use the Sagarin ratings as well, but I use the predictor number. I add 3 points for homefield advantage and come up with a line. If I see a huge discrepancy between that line and the vegas line I look into playing the game. I am just looking to see if the process could be automated in a spreadsheet or something.

Based upon the calculations here are my early leans.

Memphis -3
Uconn +14.5
Pittsburgh +18.5
Ohio +12.5
Temple +35
Eastern Michigan +4.5
Central Michigan +3.5
Kent State +11.5
BYU -12
New Mexico State +35
Iowa State -7.5
Army +13.5
Virginia Tech -6.5
Oregon +1
Hawaii +6.5
Miss St +17
NC State +14
 
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Sun Tzu

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You arent using Sagarin unless you use the predictor number and factor in homefield. One can debate the merit of your "system" but you certainly arent describing it accurately.
 

Scott4USC

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:banghead: :banghead: :banghead:

#1 it is my thread, my picks, my system.

#2 the system is based off Sagarin Ratings, clearly stated.

#3 why are you telling me how to calculate my system? Again, why are YOU telling me HOW to calculate MY system?

That is like telling someone how to handicap their games. If I want to give the home team 1pt because their HC has 30+ career wins, then that is part of MY system. If I want to use Sagarin ratings combined with statfox ratings, then that is part of my system. If I want to give team with higher SOS 3pts, then that is part of my system. Key word is "MY!"But why the hell tell someone they are calculating their system incorrectly? If YOU want to use the Sagarin predictor or give home team 3-4pts, that is YOUR system. That is not MY system. So far, MY system is 4-0 ATS and 3/4 teams outright winners. I hope YOUR system has the same success rate. Oh wait, YOU don't post a system. But you attack this one?

:banghead: :banghead: :banghead:
 
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Sun Tzu

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Thats right ...it is your "system" not "Sagarin plays" My point exactly. Sagarin doesnt have XYZ team "winning by 3.45 points" - you do in how you distort it. To accurately state what "Sagarin has" you would ahve to include homefield and use his predictor rating.


And I hate to tell you that isnt capping, just as your ripoffs of NorthCoast newslatters and annual guide arent "capping" either.

No I dont have a system. I just win.
 
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Scott4USC

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Sun Tzu said:
Thats right ...it is your "system" not "Sagarin plays" My point exactly.
And I hate to tell you that isnt capping, just as your ripoffs of NorthCoast newslatters and annual guide arent "capping" either.

:flush: :flush: :flush:

I use Sagarin Power Ratings. It is part of MY system. I do not want to mislead people into thinking I have my own calculated power rankings. They know the source. They can make up their own decision. How I come up with the system plays is clearly stated.

:flush: :flush: :flush:
 

INtheBLUE

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Based on YOUR system Scott and the current line of the USC and Texas upcoming game, who would you bet on?

Heres a hint: 6.14
 

Scott4USC

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INtheBLUE said:
Based on YOUR system Scott and the current line of the USC and Texas upcoming game, who would you bet on?

Heres a hint: 6.14

Texas +6 over USC

Sagarin Power Rankings

Texas: 101.13
Southern California: 100.99

Sagarin has Texas winning by .14 pts!

That is a difference of 6.14 pts from the Vegas line!

I never said I bet my system. I made small wager on TCU and actually bet against the system BIG with New Mexico ML over CSU. I post it in case others want to bet it and some did and won $$$. That is the point of this site. For me, it is more of an experiment. I find it interesting and will continue doing it. IMO, it makes logical sense. Lets see how it does at the end of November.

Would I bet USC -6 or Texas +6? I dunno. I have a very large future wager on USC to win it all that will come into play. I also must analyze USC's play the rest of the season and their opponent. If V-Tech wins out, I think USC will be playing V-Tech. Assuming USC wins out too!
 

bear

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Scott.......
You do a GOOD JOB!
...I enjoy reading your stuff..
Can you say ANYTHING without someone busting your chops??
Keep it up!.........and gl with your BIG future on USC

bear
 

Scott4USC

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bear said:
Scott.......
You do a GOOD JOB!
...I enjoy reading your stuff..
Can you say ANYTHING without someone busting your chops??
Keep it up!.........and gl with your BIG future on USC

bear

:mj07:

Thanks. These people are jealous and there is no doubt about it. Good luck to you this weekend and hopefully this system is a success! :)
 

INtheBLUE

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Scott4USC said:
:mj07:

Thanks. These people are jealous and there is no doubt about it. Good luck to you this weekend and hopefully this system is a success! :)

Jealous of?

a. Your stellar record this year?

b. Your new USC pajamas?

or

c. Your plush suite at casa de familia?

Dont worry Scott, I'll get this chip off my shoulder by the end of the week and quit hopping on everything you say. I guess I really had a problem with "Here is your problem". It was like your opinion was gospel and others just are wrong. Didnt set well.

Anyway, guess I'm done. Oh, and good luck to you on Wisky and the 13 units, I got it too, and I would hate to see you go down on yet another Big bet.
 

Scott4USC

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INtheBLUE said:
Jealous of?

a. Your stellar record this year?

b. Your new USC pajamas?

or

c. Your plush suite at casa de familia?

Because of my success and strong opinions! I have won well over 50k on posted wagers at this site. All documented. I am not afraid to say how much I wager and I keep a detailed record. Win or lose! All my actions are held accountable!

Dont worry Scott, I'll get this chip off my shoulder by the end of the week and quit hopping on everything you say. I guess I really had a problem with "Here is your problem". It was like your opinion was gospel and others just are wrong. Didnt set well.

How can you "praise" a defense when they have not faced an offense ranked in the top 40 in the nation? V-Tech has played 1 team ranked in the top 50 in total offense and that is Boston College @V-Tech and BC is ranked #45. That is why I said....."here is your problem"
 
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Cabo

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Blue, the pajama comment and the casa comment were funny as hell, Scott I respect your opinions and your passion for SC. I think both you all are good cappers and extremely entertaining. Scott I hope you nail Memphis on Tuesday as I too am on them, but only for 2 units (200.00). Anyway guys hope all your plays come through, ats that is..Cabo...
 

DerekNJND

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Scott4USC said:
Texas +6 over USC

Sagarin Power Rankings

Texas: 101.13
Southern California: 100.99

Sagarin has Texas winning by .14 pts!

That is a difference of 6.14 pts from the Vegas line!

I never said I bet my system. I made small wager on TCU and actually bet against the system BIG with New Mexico ML over CSU. I post it in case others want to bet it and some did and won $$$. That is the point of this site. For me, it is more of an experiment. I find it interesting and will continue doing it. IMO, it makes logical sense. Lets see how it does at the end of November.

Would I bet USC -6 or Texas +6? I dunno. I have a very large future wager on USC to win it all that will come into play. I also must analyze USC's play the rest of the season and their opponent. If V-Tech wins out, I think USC will be playing V-Tech. Assuming USC wins out too!


you are toast pal, b/c South florida's "ranking" is so SUPER INFLATED by one game, the Louisville blowout, that any ranking system that produces a number for them is out of whack. That being said, Rutgers looks too easy at -3 so s. fla is probably the play
 
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