Strong Sagarin Plays (rivalry week)

[Scott4USC]

*System last week went 2-3 ATS but had 2 outright winners!

*System is now 10-4 ATS and 8/14 underdogs have been outright winners!

:142hail: :142hail: :142hail: :142hail:

This week we have 4 plays.........

Ohio +3.5 over Akron

Sagarin Power Rankings

Ohio U.: 64.76
Akron: 62.11

Sagarin has Ohio winning by 2.65 pts!

That is a difference of 5.65 pts from the Vegas line!

***

Missouri +1 over Kansas St.

Sagarin Power Rankings

Missouri: 75.71
Kansas State: 69.52

Sagarin has Missouri winning by 6.19 pts!

That is a difference of 7.19 pts from the Vegas line!

***

Minnesota +4 over Iowa

Sagarin Power Rankings

Minnesota: 86.90
Iowa: 82.37

Sagarin has Minnesota winning by 4.53 pts!

That is a difference of 8.53 pts from the Vegas line!

***

Stanford +4 over California

Sagarin Power Rankings

Stanford: 77.31
California: 75.38

Sagarin has Stanford winning by 1.93 pts!

That is a difference of 5.93 pts from the Vegas line!

*Sagarin system plays always buy 1/2pt on key #'s, Ohio +3.5

 

[Blackman]

Interesting system and based on from what you've been doing it seems profitable.

My only concern would be that I think Sagarin is overvaluing the Big Ten strength of schedule slightly, which is distorting the numbers. I guess you could say that Minnesota's and Iowa's number would be equally distorted if that is the case, but Minnesota falling into his top ten has me scratching my head. Just seems like the number 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, and 11 schedule strengths all in one conference will skew the numbers.

This might be more relevant in non-conference games, I'm not sure, just thought it was interesting.

Also do you go straight by the numbers or do you adjust based on homefield advantage? For the game in Iowa I do think that is a factor.

Sorry to bog down your thread with questions but I was just capping the Iowa game and found these numbers pretty interesting.


Thanks in advance.

 

[mw]

Sagarin has Ohio winning by 2.65 pts!

No, he doesn't.

Aside from the fact that you're using "Rating" instead of "Predictor" numbers, you're not adjusting for home field.

 

[Scott4USC]

No, he doesn't.

Aside from the fact that you're using "Rating" instead of "Predictor" numbers, you're not adjusting for home field.

Why are "you" telling me how to calculate "my" system?

It is clearly noted I used the "Sagarin Power Ratings." I do not use the "elo chess" or the "predictor." I use a combination of both. Sagarin himself says to use the predictor to predict future games and add 3pts to home team. Does that mean I have to do what Sagarin says? :nooo:

I use the Sagarin Power Ratings along with 2 of my own parameters. #1 Sagarin Rating must have vegas underdog as favorite. (false favorite) #2 Sagarin Rating must be 5 or more pts from the vegas line. I do not factor in home field. For arguments sake, if you did want to give 3pts to home team, ALL my plays would have a min. 2pt advantage over Vegas line.

I have clearly stated how and why I use these calculations in past threads. In every new thread I clearly state how I calculated each team.

I don't mind someone offering suggestions (constructive criticism) on tweaking the system etc. I do mind someone telling me I am calculating my system incorrectly. Remember, it is my system so shouldn't it involve my rules?

 

[Scott4USC]

Interesting system and based on from what you've been doing it seems profitable.

Thanks. I think the system making logical sense makes me a believer that this can have longterm success. This is the first year I am using it and is more of an experiment. Each week i took 1-2 plays from the system and made them offical plays.

My only concern would be that I think Sagarin is overvaluing the Big Ten strength of schedule slightly, which is distorting the numbers. I guess you could say that Minnesota's and Iowa's number would be equally distorted if that is the case, but Minnesota falling into his top ten has me scratching my head. Just seems like the number 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, and 11 schedule strengths all in one conference will skew the numbers.

Sagarin doesn't value any conf. over the other. What he does is give each game on the schedule equal weight. HUMANS (SEC fans) often will only look at 2-3 games on a schedule. Sagarin looks at every game, who you play and where you play. There is no exact science in calculating SOS but nobody can say Sagarin's calculations are flawed. He has bias to any team or conf.

Didn't the Big 10 play a lot of BCS teams in OOC play? Didn't Ohio St. play Texas, Michigan vs ND, Purdue vs Arizona, Illinois vs Cal, Penn St. vs S. Florida & Cincy, Northwestern vs Arizona St., Wisconsin vs UNC, Purdue vs ND, Michigan St. vs ND, Indiana vs Kentucky.

ALL BCS SCHOOLS IN OOC PLAY! Pretty impressive for OOC play. Unlike the SEC, you don't see too many directional schools. (La. Monroe, Citadel, Western Kentucky, Fl Int., UL Laf. , etc.) For example, ND has played more BCS teams than the ENTIRE SEC! SEC is a 12 team conf.

What is even more impressive is I left out bunch of teams from the Mountain West and MAC. Those are not BCS teams but still respected conf. (I think I remember Big 10 teams playing Miami Ohio, Bowling Green, Colorado St., SDSU, etc)

As a conf. Big 10 plays quality OOC schedule. You can clearly see that. So in conf. play teams might not have bunch of w's because they did play quality OOC opponents. Sagarin knows that and is not focused only on wins and losses. That is why teams from other conf. are always ahead of SEC teams in BCS. Computers factor EVERY game played, not just 2-3 games. But the polls always have SEC teams ranked high. Most fans just look at polls, wins/losses, & only focus on 2-3 games on a schedule and wrongly come to the conculsion the SEC is superior. Which is obviously incorrect.

Also do you go straight by the numbers or do you adjust based on homefield advantage? For the game in Iowa I do think that is a factor.

I do not factor in HF advantage. However, if you give 3pts to home team, my selection still has a min. 2pt advantage over vegas line.

Sorry to bog down your thread with questions but I was just capping the Iowa game and found these numbers pretty interesting.

Not a problem at all and good luck this weekend! This isn't a proven system but it makes logical sense and so far it has been a great success.

 

[cmamoulelis]

emotional retirement press conference for k-state coach. i think they come out and win for him in his final game.

 

[genosays]

How about Virginia Tech as a play .... Sagarin has them rated quite a bit higher than UVA right??

 

[Scott4USC]

How about Virginia Tech as a play .... Sagarin has them rated quite a bit higher than UVA right??

You are correct. Sagarin has V-Tech winning by 16pts over Virginia. However it is not a system play.

To qualify under my system, the team must be an underdog who Sagarin has winning outright based on his power ratings. 2nd, it must have difference of at least 5pts from the vegas line.

 

[DerekNJND]

With all these criticisms scott, you might want to draft a Disclaimer. I dont think people comprehend that its YOUR system and not Sagarin Plays. Just a thought.

 

[Shibby]

If this "system" were used throughout the entire season, I think you'd find that the ATS record would be .500 or less.

 

[Buck i]

cmamoulelis

That did not work for wiscy and coach :cursin: Berry last week.

 

[Scott4USC]

If this "system" were used throughout the entire season, I think you'd find that the ATS record would be .500 or less.

Why would you use this system throughout the entire season? That is why I started it in Oct. after weeks of data have been entered and processed. That is when power ratings are most beneficial.

Why do you think you would find it to be .500 or less?

I don't know how the end results will be and that is why I am testing it out. But curious why you formed the opinion of it going .500 or less and not .500 or more. Is there a flaw in the system? Something not make sense to you? Not a bash to you, just curious why you look down on it and forcast poor results.

 

[INtheBLUE]

If this "system" were used throughout the entire season, I think you'd find that the ATS record would be .500 or less.

Many "systems" are only implemented after week 6 or seven. The whole point is to make money. If you think a system will make money but not until week 7, why would you care what it did in weeks 1-6?

Any betting on week one and 2 are based on opinion or someone that follows the teams in depth. Why do you think that so many people listen to Gman about the MAC? He knows the teams before the stats do.

Shibby, if you are looking for a system that bats over .500 (or I think you would want a little higher) that will work year-round, you wont find it. Scott, as much as I hate saying it, has tweaked this to suit specific games. He cant bet more games, because they dont fall into the system, but he can bet more on the games when they do and make more money. Its still money management just higher units.

The point is that Scott's way of betting is making money. Instead of criticising him on how he should do it, you should be looking at betting the way he has been showing you. I havent done the math but you would be up on his "system if you had been betting SU or on ML's.

Show some respect, huh.

BTW, Scott, still think you're obnoxious!

 

[DerekNJND]

Scott and I have come to blows over his beloved Trojans and my Irish, but as far as this system goes:

Read it and play it
Read it and dont play it

I dont think Scott cares one way or the other. He said he doesnt even play all the picks himself, so if you dont like a pick, then DONT PLAY it.

If everyone took the time to criticize everyone else's system or picks, no information would be shared here, because you would have to read through endless posts and threads full of controversy and criticism instead of helpful, meaningful posts. GL scott

 

[vinnie]

Read it and play it
Read it and dont play it

:yup :yup

 

[ces]

Looks like you could add some nice teasers with these teams, too.

 

[Scott4USC]

Sagarin 0-1 to start the week!

 

[edludes]

iTS ALL IN THE NAME

iTS ALL IN THE NAME

The reason no one knows these picks are your variation,adaptation,prediction is that you use Sagarins well known name in the title of your post.If you titled your thread Strong Scott Plays there would be less confusion.Less interest,less credibiltiy too,which I'm sure is why you do it in the first place.You can't get attention with a $15000 play every week. LEARN MONEY MANAGEMENT.GL and Peace

 

[Scott4USC]

The reason no one knows these picks are your variation,adaptation,prediction is that you use Sagarins well known name in the title of your post.If you titled your thread Strong Scott Plays there would be less confusion.Less interest,less credibiltiy too,which I'm sure is why you do it in the first place.You can't get attention with a $15000 play every week. LEARN MONEY MANAGEMENT.GL and Peace

:flush: :flush: :flush:

So now it is a problem that I type Sagarin in title of my post? I didn't plan on disclosing this system to the forum. I was going to just keep it quiet to myself because it has never been tested but then I thought there was so much value in TCU over AF that why not post it. LET OTHERS DECIDE FOR THEMSELVES IF THEY WANT ACTION ON TCU! So I posted it, TCU came in easy, posted showed their appreciation, so I decided to post every week for forum and I can track it that way and maybe help others as well. I am not playing the system blindly and I stated that.

I give Sagarin 100% of the credit. Only thing I did was add filters. I am giving SAGARIN all the credit in the world for his strong rating system. I am sure he appreciates it. :lol: It would be dishonest for me to not explain my system and not give Sagarin credit. I am sure MOST people on the site appreciate me disclosing ALL info how I come up with these system plays. I explain my source AND explain my calculations. Then they can make their own decision on whether the system is BS or not. Also they could tweak the system more to fit their needs. IMO this site is all about info. Why don't you go bug the posters who don't explain themselves instead of one who fully explains himself. :mj10:

 

[BUCKY1]

You still havn't explained where you got all your bogus info on the penn st/wisky game.
-alvarez imposing gag order?
-bernstien playing?
-walk-on lineman?
practice what you preach. gl