Ok ok, I have nothing to do, Im drunk and I dont want to go to bed, so here is a question for all of you. How many of you have the stats of this NFL season concerning to all the games with a 6.5 or less spread??? my experience tell me that most of the time a +6.5 or less dog win outright. This question comes to me after I bet steelers -9.5 on MNF (vs the colts on special points +210) talking about night games the SU winner has cover all the times (im almost sure) and I also believe that teams that are favorites by that number covers the spread by more than 10 points. Im telling you this because maybe next time instead of getting the points you should only bet the ML, and instead of betting the fav team, we should bet special points (if your book has it). I dont know just a question from a drunk guy.
SU vs ATS winners. Does it worths to take +6.5 or less???
- Thread starter Doctor Baseball
- Start date
Jessy
Do you mind if I respond ? I dont want to clutter up your post with meaningless drivel....
:thefinger JK
Scott-Atlanta
Do you mind if I respond ? I dont want to clutter up your post with meaningless drivel....
:thefinger JK
Scott-Atlanta
You cant Scott, you already over all madjack per day limits on # of replies, # of quotes, and # of words. If you continue breaking madjack rules you will be kick, so please dont do it. By the way I just realize that it is sunday, so maybe you still have enough replies allow.
:thefinger
Did you already hit the over?????????????????
:thefinger
Did you already hit the over?????????????????
Jessy
yeh Sunday starts my new week.
thanks for letting me know Jessy.
Good luck tommorrow !
Scott-Atlanta
yeh Sunday starts my new week.
thanks for letting me know Jessy.
Good luck tommorrow !
Scott-Atlanta
Just keep a good replies and quotes management and you?ll be fine. By the way, I dont have the exact numbers, but it seems that in -6.5 or less games the dog wins SU or favs won by more tha 7 ATS. I?ll check more tomorrow (now Im to ****ing drunk) but it seems that with my bookie odds, a 1 unit play on the ML dog, and a 1 Unit play on the special ponts favs, should show a profit.
I've got the data on my computer, but I'm exhausted so if you need a more detailed response it will have to be tomorrow. So far this year there have been 17 occasions where a dog has covered the spread but lost the game. Another 40 occasions where the dog won the game outright. And the favorite has won & covered 43 times. (The numbers may be a little bit off compared to others as there are some instances where it's hard to say exactly WHO the favorite was as some games opened with one team favored and closed the other way, but these #'s are close).
Anyways, by my quick count, it looks like 8 times a team has covered a spread of 6? or less but still lost the game this year. There are at least three times where it happened when a team was getting 7 as well.
I'm beat, good night.
Greg
Anyways, by my quick count, it looks like 8 times a team has covered a spread of 6? or less but still lost the game this year. There are at least three times where it happened when a team was getting 7 as well.
I'm beat, good night.
Greg
A one word answer to your question: absolutely.
I think pts only doesn't matter in the NFL when its 2.5 or less then go moneyline if you like the dog. The majority of spreads in the NFL are 4.5 or less. There's a guy on the radio who's always spouting pts don't matter; its usually after he takes all chalks and wants to justify his picks.
I think pts only doesn't matter in the NFL when its 2.5 or less then go moneyline if you like the dog. The majority of spreads in the NFL are 4.5 or less. There's a guy on the radio who's always spouting pts don't matter; its usually after he takes all chalks and wants to justify his picks.
Ya, "The points don't matter, just pick the winner" translates to "I take all favorites". 
I agree in general Valuist, though I did get burned on the ML once this year, when Carolina collapsed against Dallas. I could have had Car +2 but instead went ML, and of course they lost by 1. Bound to happen eventually...but I tell ya, in this case that one hurt!
I agree in general Valuist, though I did get burned on the ML once this year, when Carolina collapsed against Dallas. I could have had Car +2 but instead went ML, and of course they lost by 1. Bound to happen eventually...but I tell ya, in this case that one hurt!
