sucker bet sunday

[sleybon]

ok ill take the bengals +7.5. someone has to

i guess its christmas in vegas because they are giving away free money. all u have to do is bet the jaguars and u cant lose. easy free money.

 

[sleybon]

easy winner last week

havent decided yet what is the biggest sucker bet this week

its either NE - 3.5, car -10, balt -1, tenn -3 or nyg +3

i may bet them all but I think right now by best play is Hou +1

tough spot for BALT, Hous is a very good home team.

 

[Whitt's End]

of that group, it has to be either the HOU/BAL or NYG/PHI matchup, i think.

GL

Whitt

 

[HUDSON]

Houston opened up favorites in that game....I like BAL in this one!

 

[sleybon]

going to go with the bills as my top play today.
this game smells something awful.

i also like seattle more and more as i look at it.
i have seen this before in the NFL. young team that isnt used to being good (like MIAMI) now playing the role as a big favorite. they are "expected" to win now. this is a different kind of pressure. everyone is overlooking seattle.
they can come up and bite you in this one.

i know the stats of west coast to east coast for early start, but miami looks too easy today.

so going with

bills +4
seat +8.5


good luck today

 

[kenman]

agree with you there... I am bucking that East-West coast trend and jumped on the SEA +8.5 bandwagon this week. GLTU

Line is going down to 7.5 at some places.

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

I think the Giants are going to get a ton of action. If a book wanted even money on both sides, Philly -3 isn't going to get you there. I'd guess that the line should be Even or NYG -1 if that was the case.

Also, the Lions/Jags game is another interesting case. "All they have to do is beat the lowly Lions by a TD and I win".

 

[sleybon]

gmroz22,

i def. agree with you about the giants game. i go through the games before the lines come out and put down what i think the line should be and i had the giants as a pick or a small fav.

i hate laying points in the NFL so I probably will take eagles ML. iggles need this game so much more and they are playing very well. I dont think the giants are this good. they have looked shaky at times this year.

if i were to bet the lions, i would buy it up to 7.5.
jac is in shambles but they could come out strong in this one. they already had their meltdown weeks (CLEV and then CINCY). i do not think they are overlooking anyone right now even the lions . its not like they just came off a big win or anything like that. det is really really bad, just remember that. that being said though, i would never bet the jags here in a million years, its det or nothing but like i said i would buy up to 7.5.

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

Sley: If you want a good tool for figuring out what the lines "should" be, check out the Sagarin Ratings on the USA Today website. If you factor in the home advantage (given by Jeff Sagarin every week), you'll see that the majority of the lines match up to the difference in power ratings + home adv. It is good information because when some lines look to be wrong, they really aren't (based on Sagarin).

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

Here is an NFL Sagarin spreadsheet I keep....this is Week 3 from this year as an example. This particular week wasn't a good example since it is when there are a lot of corrections being made after the first couple weeks of play....as the year goes on, the Sagarin and book lines become much closer.

 

[sleybon]

this is very interesting. thank you very much.
i def. will look into this more.

good luck today

 

[HUDSON]

going to go with the bills as my top play today.
this game smells something awful.

i also like seattle more and more as i look at it.
i have seen this before in the NFL. young team that isnt used to being good (like MIAMI) now playing the role as a big favorite. they are "expected" to win now. this is a different kind of pressure. everyone is overlooking seattle.
they can come up and bite you in this one.

i know the stats of west coast to east coast for early start, but miami looks too easy today.

so going with

bills +4
seat +8.5


good luck today

Careful with Seattle...they are a bad team! Traveling across country with no offense. SEA came out and bit Tampa Bay a few weeks ago with a back door cover in which they got dominated in the game. Don't think so today....MIA puts them away. This team is maturing week after week and a lot better then people think. Ronnie Brown should have a big day today. GL with your plays!

 

[sleybon]

scratch the bills play. dont like the line movement.
this week is tough. i usually only bet dogs and just dont like this week at all


just playing these sides for early games

seat +7.5
detroit +7.5 -140


totals i like

under stl/jets 43.5
under gb/min 44.4
under atl/no 51