Getting back on track with a couple of winning days in a row. May have been small but on the plus side anywho.
'Capped a few games of interest.
Results aren't spectacular but here they are:
phillies 57% (-125)+1
--Myers had an excellent spring but his first start was so-so. Volquez had a great spring, too, so I have to give some credit there; he showed little with Texas last year. Small edge pitching and hitting but not great value.
Brewers 72%/58% (-220/-103)+3/+7
--Sheets with a poor spring but was excellent in his 1st. Zito had a horrid spring and was poor in his 1st. Monster edge at the dish and a large home-field advantage. Might try the Brewers runline at home vs L until it fails.
nationals 46% (+130)+2
--Lannan and Lohse both had solid springs. Lefty Lannan could turn into something. Cards 4-game winning streak a turn off here. Would consider the under with an ump better than Layne for such endeavours.
Cubs 70%/56% (-185/+110)+5/+8
--Carlos with an excellent spring and a great 1st start. Backe with a poor spring and a so-so 1st start. Berkman and Wigginton both unlikely to play giving the Cubs a decent sized edge at the plate, to go along with a monster edge on the hill. Looks safe to parlay or runline.
Rockies 63%/50% (-136/+150)+5/+10
--Morales had a few solid goes late in '07 but had a pretty bad spring. Gonzalez was mediocre in '07 but had the better spring. Still giving a tiny edge to the Rox hurlers, though their BP has started rather cold. Medium-sized edge at the plate (stacked lineup has to begin producing sometime) and a sizeable home-field edge--Rockies 0-2 at home shouldn't last long. Not sure about this one. D'Backs had their troubles with lefties last year but have certainly seen several so far in '08 and have done fine.
Padres 56% (-132)-1
--Young was decent this spring and solid in his 1st save for being a bit wild. Young was phenomenal at Petco last year. Lowe had mixed results this spring and a so-so 1st go against the Giants. He's 0-3 in 6 career starts at Petco. Small edge to the Dodgers offense leaves me with no perceived value here. Looks like we'll see a lot of 7's for Petco totals. Still wondering what the Petco total results were from '07 (or even '06) if anyone has them.
Jays 53% (+100)+3
--Roy had a fairly solid spring and was decent in his opener against the Yanks. He was 11-1 at the Rogers Centre last year. Beckett's making his 1st start off the DL due to back spasms. He's 3-3 vs the Jays with a 4.50 era; pitched dynamite in his only Rogers appearance last season. Happy with yesterday's production but 'Sox still have the edge at the plate. Dunno here, either...I think it would be silly not to play Doc all year long at home for even money--may not happen again, at least not often.
tb-NYY under 9.5 50%
--Shields has very poor numbers against the Yanks and TB's offense should get some off of Wang. Yanks unders at home vs a righty might be silly all year.
Tigers 61% (-153)even
--Justin with poor numbers vs Chisox. His spring was a bit rough and his 1st go so-so; when he gets in a groove he'll be a good side or under if bats are still hurting. Mark had a solid spring but his 1st go was horrid. He has decent career numbers vs the Tigers. Tigers smoked lefties last year and, despite Buehrle going 1-1 vs last year, they hit Mark at .326 in three '07 meetings. Don't think I can touch this one. Justin may dominate but I'll wait for one of those before backing him so expensively.
The other games listed are beyond the scope of this contamination.
GL
'Capped a few games of interest.
Results aren't spectacular but here they are:
phillies 57% (-125)+1
--Myers had an excellent spring but his first start was so-so. Volquez had a great spring, too, so I have to give some credit there; he showed little with Texas last year. Small edge pitching and hitting but not great value.
Brewers 72%/58% (-220/-103)+3/+7
--Sheets with a poor spring but was excellent in his 1st. Zito had a horrid spring and was poor in his 1st. Monster edge at the dish and a large home-field advantage. Might try the Brewers runline at home vs L until it fails.
nationals 46% (+130)+2
--Lannan and Lohse both had solid springs. Lefty Lannan could turn into something. Cards 4-game winning streak a turn off here. Would consider the under with an ump better than Layne for such endeavours.
Cubs 70%/56% (-185/+110)+5/+8
--Carlos with an excellent spring and a great 1st start. Backe with a poor spring and a so-so 1st start. Berkman and Wigginton both unlikely to play giving the Cubs a decent sized edge at the plate, to go along with a monster edge on the hill. Looks safe to parlay or runline.
Rockies 63%/50% (-136/+150)+5/+10
--Morales had a few solid goes late in '07 but had a pretty bad spring. Gonzalez was mediocre in '07 but had the better spring. Still giving a tiny edge to the Rox hurlers, though their BP has started rather cold. Medium-sized edge at the plate (stacked lineup has to begin producing sometime) and a sizeable home-field edge--Rockies 0-2 at home shouldn't last long. Not sure about this one. D'Backs had their troubles with lefties last year but have certainly seen several so far in '08 and have done fine.
Padres 56% (-132)-1
--Young was decent this spring and solid in his 1st save for being a bit wild. Young was phenomenal at Petco last year. Lowe had mixed results this spring and a so-so 1st go against the Giants. He's 0-3 in 6 career starts at Petco. Small edge to the Dodgers offense leaves me with no perceived value here. Looks like we'll see a lot of 7's for Petco totals. Still wondering what the Petco total results were from '07 (or even '06) if anyone has them.
Jays 53% (+100)+3
--Roy had a fairly solid spring and was decent in his opener against the Yanks. He was 11-1 at the Rogers Centre last year. Beckett's making his 1st start off the DL due to back spasms. He's 3-3 vs the Jays with a 4.50 era; pitched dynamite in his only Rogers appearance last season. Happy with yesterday's production but 'Sox still have the edge at the plate. Dunno here, either...I think it would be silly not to play Doc all year long at home for even money--may not happen again, at least not often.
tb-NYY under 9.5 50%
--Shields has very poor numbers against the Yanks and TB's offense should get some off of Wang. Yanks unders at home vs a righty might be silly all year.
Tigers 61% (-153)even
--Justin with poor numbers vs Chisox. His spring was a bit rough and his 1st go so-so; when he gets in a groove he'll be a good side or under if bats are still hurting. Mark had a solid spring but his 1st go was horrid. He has decent career numbers vs the Tigers. Tigers smoked lefties last year and, despite Buehrle going 1-1 vs last year, they hit Mark at .326 in three '07 meetings. Don't think I can touch this one. Justin may dominate but I'll wait for one of those before backing him so expensively.
The other games listed are beyond the scope of this contamination.
GL
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