Sun Conf Final.....

[Box and one]

Need a little help...I want to hedge 2 games today but get confused sometimes
I have Davidson +230 to win the A-10 and Houston +375....to win their conf...if I bet the moneyline and take URI -145..how do I come out ahead with the -145...I get confused ..lets say I have $300 on Davidson to win at +230...what do I put down to hedge that taking URI....is it worth it and the -145....not good at figuring this out...also I don't even see a moneyline out yet on Houston-Cinncy...

Back later with some picks
Like UTA +1.5 a lot and Davidson +2.5 ...

yest
11-4 +14*'s
with yest 11-4 +23*'s
that's 22-8 +37*'s
that is not normal and the balloon could burst or will burst at any moment...leaving for Vegas on Wed so looking forward to the opening of March madness...love the 4 days at the casino's trying to watch 6 big screen TV's in front of you...love making "live wagering" plays....I really do good in those...I would love to be the guy in Vegas who is watching all the games and then during a timeout makes a decision like Zaga -2...its only one hotel or guy that puts the live wagering up..so I think every place put those odds up...they freak'in tease your ass...but when your sitting right under a big screen you almost feel your there....its probably overall a bad bet but I love it...
back later..any advice..if I had any brains would just let it ride today..but if any of you reading this here also have no brains..no offense... the Cayman Island fantasy is really unrealistic but its like what Cervantes wrote about in Don Q attacking those windmills..." the impossible dream..
thanks Palmetto,Dilly,203,Buckwheat and Randercity...
back later

 

[ROBB MACK]

Need a little help...I want to hedge 2 games today but get confused sometimes
I have Davidson +230 to win the A-10 and Houston +375....to win their conf...if I bet the moneyline and take URI -145..how do I come out ahead with the -145...I get confused ..lets say I have $300 on Davidson to win at +230...what do I put down to hedge that taking URI....is it worth it and the -145....not good at figuring this out...also I don't even see a moneyline out yet on Houston-Cinncy...


Back later with some picks
Like UTA +1.5 a lot and Davidson +2.5 ...

yest
11-4 +14*'s
with yest 11-4 +23*'s
that's 22-8 +37*'s
that is not normal and the balloon could burst or will burst at any moment...leaving for Vegas on Wed so looking forward to the opening of March madness...love the 4 days at the casino's trying to watch 6 big screen TV's in front of you...love making "live wagering" plays....I really do good in those...I would love to be the guy in Vegas who is watching all the games and then during a timeout makes a decision like Zaga -2...its only one hotel or guy that puts the live wagering up..so I think every place put those odds up...they freak'in tease your ass...but when your sitting right under a big screen you almost feel your there....its probably overall a bad bet but I love it...
back later..any advice..if I had any brains would just let it ride today..but if any of you reading this here also have no brains..no offense... the Cayman Island fantasy is really unrealistic but its like what Cervantes wrote about in Don Q attacking those windmills..." the impossible dream..
thanks Palmetto,Dilly,203,Buckwheat and Randercity...
back later

Here u go Box...Davidson would pay $690 at +230 risking $300. U really cant make a killing. Take RI -145 to WIN $300. Uvwood be risking $435. If RI wins u break even. If Dav wins u win $255. Hope this helps.

 

[Randercity]

Here u go Box...Davidson would pay $690 at +230 risking $300. U really cant make a killing. Take RI -145 to WIN $300. Uvwood be risking $435. If RI wins u break even. If Dav wins u win $255. Hope this helps.

You can keep it simple or you can make it real complicated. Since the games involved start at different times you have the option of playing a teaser. If you tease Rhode Island to Cincinnati for five points, you would have the Rams plus two and a half or three putting yourself in a position to win both plays Davidson future and keep the teaser alive.

If you have $300 bet on each future for a total of 600 at risk you could play the teaser 650 to win 500 so now your total investment is $1,250. This to me is the safest play because you reduce your risk from $600 down to 260.

Davidson wins collect $990 lose $260 if teaser loses. Should Davidson win by 1 or 2 keeping the teaser alive, you are guaranteed a profit of $700 as you'll have both teams in the later game basically at Pick'em. You could further muddy the waters my plan another teaser taking Houston plus nine and a half or 10 to a future game.

But in this scenario I believe playing a 5 point teaser gives you the ability to reduce your risk and possibly increase your profit. [emoji41]

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[Randercity]

Playing the teaser for $500 results in the following:

If both Futures lose, teaser hits, lose $100

Davidson wins by three or more and Houston loses you end up losing $260

If Houston wins you can't lose money but you reduce your profit considerably.

It really comes down to the first game how much do you trust Davidson?? [emoji848]

Another option would be to play a 3-team 8 point teaser given you Rhode Island + 6 Cincinnati + 3 and 1/2 or 4 which would give you better middle possibilities. The 13 would be a game tomorrow or a late NBA play so that if your teaser is still alive you could finalize everything by betting against on the later game.

Like I said you can make it complicated 🤣🤣

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[Boxscoring]

I'll be in Vegas on Friday... perhaps I'll see you in the book at Caesar's... I suppose you'll be the one staring at the live lines with drool hanging from your chin!:0034

 

[gk51]

Box hedging is for landscapers :142smilie
Let it ride.
I leave Wednesday for Vegas. Will be in the ballroom at Southpoint.

 

[BuckwheatJWN]

Wait and get an IN GAME bet once the underdog gets the lead, if you want to gamble opcorn2

 

[udown]

youre on a good roll. let it ride:0074

 

[BigGaycapper]

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting...gy/how-to-hedge-a-sports-bet/T3N2JT3CPUKG78TG

Box, This may help. Took it from a thread in the main forum. Thanks for all you do and everything you share with us and good luck the rest of the way through March!

 

[Box and one]

Thank you guys for explaining to me some different ways to make those plays..reread them..seem more confused..will later reread and see what I do.. i knew it would be a little confusing...but in my feeble mind I think I'm going to win big either way...not so


UTA +1.5 over Ga St ****
The only reason I took La Laf for a small play was LAF's Gant only played a few minutes 2 games ago and yest played 9 minutes and scored 3 pts and 1 rebound...when I took my program out when they played Tx St I liked the 6'8 Gant...think he had around 6-8 points,7 rebounds and 3 blocked shots...one of those blocked shots zipped right over my head...knowing he wasn't full strength yesterday should of taken UTA +6..but didn't..
I have been so wrong with this team all year..I guess the way I handicapp some teams I give to much credit for..have been up and down with the MAV's since day 1..they best BYU,lose to Bama by 1,then beat North Texas by 5,lose to Coastal and by 30,lose to Fl Gulf,beat Tx St by 1 and recently 3[where I lost by 1/2 pt because I refused to buy a freak'in pt} I had to hitchhike home to austin,because I bet my Toyota Camery on that game...anyway they have been up and down..Like I said way back in Novemeber..this team is good... Hervey is big time..can hit 3's,drive to the hoop,rebound above the rim,etc..but is a head case...comes out of the Tx game,passes his whole team and sits behind the gatorrade cooler so it doesn't even look like he is on the bench...if I was Cross the coach at that point I would of walked over to him and said.. " sir,can you do me a favor and just walk about 5 more steps from the cooler into the hallway,into the lockeroom and then into the bus outside waiting..get the "F" out of here"..but that can't happen for me.. UTA up 8 pts...I need the -3.5...and that will never happen because these coaches need to win..and that's one reason why I'm sitting in row 3 and the Coach is still coaching
anyway UTA has won 5 in a row...they are playing like last yrs champions.. Neal the pt gd is just outstanding...he had 18 last nite with his 5 assists..Hervey had 14 pts and 11 bds.
Ga So best player Simonds played terrible despite they winning...Mitchell had a big game..these guys are good..they can shoot,rebound,etc.. Hunter is a no nonsense coach..
In their last game vs each other Ga St won 81-75...Simonds had 29 pts and 10 bds..Hervey had 22 and 13 bds and Wilson who was out a few games had 21...but he is so selfish...forcing shots,had Hervey open but didn't pass to him...you notice things like this when you have alot of *****'s on the game...
UTA will win the bds today...Neal will have his usual game.. Hervey did need to step up and plays his A game..with Simonds playing so bad yesterday fouling out scoring 6 points and 5 turnovers ..do't want a reakout game..UTA is going dancing and wins outright..they ended there season beating the top 3 teams in the conf in Laf,GSt and Ga So...its all about timing...



Davidson +2.5 over URI ****
Cats playing awesome...Love the aircraft carrier in Aldridge but he is really not a true "carrier" he can hit the 3 like yests 4 or 5 he hit.. Grady is tough and can score and Axel Gudmundson is amazing..love that kid...yes he is white from Iceland and his middle name is really Axel,1st name jon...Wildcats have the best coach in the country in Bob McKillop from the NY HS coaches...I won more sectional titles and went to the State Finals 3 times..way more then McKillop..what the hell happened to me...
URI has struggled again and just beat st Joes...but they have the talent to beat anybody anyday..think Wildcats go dancing because URI is already in..Wildcats might be in too but I'm sure McKillop is telling them this morning that Lunardi called him and if we lose today its NIT's...Cats are 10-2 in Feb...win outright today

Harvard +2.5 over Penn **
Tough game since this is a home game for Penn.. I like harvard a little better..Crimson has the better defense and Penn the better offense...like towns a lot and Juizany..just realized this game already started..dam.. but did get my bet in..sorry


Houston +4 over cinncy ***
running late Like the Coogs here...Cinncy defense is unreal ranking them 2 ...but Coogs defense is really good and think they have more offense

just realized all dogs today...will play with those teasers tahnks

 

[Box and one]

Harvard +2 at half**
stupid play since I haven't seen one second of the game..

GK51..think I'm going to let it all ride...thanks for all the scenarios but still a little confused or gun shy..Bog G that was a good article...Buckwheat I do that also...I like seeing someone getting 2 early fouls or 3...then they sit..

good luck to everyone..thanks for all the nice comments...won't be able to do any long and boring ass write ups in Vegas...will make them short and hopefully sweet.. Go Davidson and Coogs and also Mavs
" Hervey you 6'8 lazy ass..can you step up to the plate today and hit a home run"...

 

[thadchr]

Any early feel for who you like to win it all Box, before the brackets come out? I know it's a "less valuable" exercise because it's less realistic without the brackets, but in a way I think it's more helpful to analyze because it gives you a truer sense of who you genuinely think the best teams really are.

I have two I like that I made abut a month ago (clearly before both teams were slated as potential #1 seeds):
Kansas +1800
Xaviers +2500

opcorn2

 

[Box and one]

Thad I have XU also. And Texas am. But will watch tonite and see the brackets. Will make a few prop plays to win it all.

 

[Box and one]

Thank you Davidson. Whew what a game. I am jumping up and down while my wife plays candy crush. Wife says ? you must have money on this game? and I married 41 years.

 

[tcon142]

Great run box! Heading to Vegas Thursday night. You hit the nail on the head not a better venue for the games. Staying Famingo. Walkway between there and the Linq will be rocking all weekend! Appreciate your write ups! Continued GLTU!!

 

[Box and one]

Played ga st -11 live wagering 2 time outs ago. Small play

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

...I want to hedge 2 games today...hedge that taking URI....is it worth it and the -145...love making "live wagering" plays....I really do good in those...
... the Cayman Island fantasy is really unrealistic but its like what Cervantes wrote about in Don Q attacking those windmills..." the impossible dream..

If URI had been listed at +145, instead of -145, then I suspect the same dilemma would present itself; the only real difference being that the guaranteed profit, from your overall risk for the URI-Davidson game, would be a fair bit higher then coming back on the other side as the -145 fave.

I'm chiming in, post-game, as it seems to me related hedges totally have to be judged on a case-by-case basis and, more awkwardly, they will require a subjective component. Means, motive and opportunity may be a way to consider any such cases, with the opportunity including available line (-145, and other possible options, in this case). Means remains 'objective', too, arguably, but motive is the obvious culprit responsible for putting the hammer down.

I haven't seen this covered anywhere, to my satisfaction, despite the number of articles available on arbitrage mathematics and the like. I had a different hedge opportunity a couple days back and while my decision wasn't going to break my bank or theirs, it did get me thinking about subject, probably a little too intensely for what reality warrants. My (further) confused ramblings for this are in the GD forum, for any masochists present.

?The wounds received in battle bestow honor, they do not take it away...?
― Miguel de Cervantes Saavedra, Don Quixote

I think the above is true for us sports wagering participants.

?Finally, from so little sleeping and so much reading, his brain dried up and he went completely out of his mind.?
― Miguel de Cervantes Saavedra, Don Quixote

Stay tuned.

 

[Randercity]

My teaser play hit btw [emoji6]

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[jng]

Away off topic, but I had two share this!

http://highline.huffingtonpost.com/articles/en/lotto-winners/

 

[Box and one]

I give coaches points the way I handicapp...not a lot depending on the coach..there are some coaches I hate and take -2 or -3 from my formula...sometimes those are as much as a home game.. I hate Sampson. he was a -3 today....think he is a terrible Xand 0 coach but has done very well with Houston this year...think they been in 3rd place the past 2 yrs in the AAC..had some good players and had a great year...have to give him some credit this year though..but he still sucks..they are up 3 with the ball but lose it.now tie score with about 23 seconds left with the ball..time out..instead of a play they let Gray just kill the clock dribbling at the top of the key..last shot..if it goes in they win or at least a tie and overtime...some coaches want to shoot with a few seconds left so maybe you get an offensive rebound...but fighting for that rebound means no offensive foul..no over the top...etc..so without any screens they let Gray shoot an NBA 3,he misses and Houston commits a foul with 4.5 seconds...the one thing you cannot do...if Cinncy rebounds and outlets the ball and they hit a jumper..fine..but no foul on the rebound..mortal sin...they foul...Cinncy hits a FT and with 4.5 seconds left Gray dribbles up the court and passes to his wing Robinson ..but the pass is behind him...turnover..game over..I'm not upset at that play..human error..the key question is...have they ever practiced that last second play...if they did and it didn't work that's fine..but if they never did and it didn't work that's on the coach...Cinncy wins 56-55...I had Houston +375...wow..that errant pass cost me mucho..but that's part of the game....it actually didn't cost me much making the play but sure took away some winning money...
I want to thank you guys for explaining to me the different scenarios of hedging...I appreciate that a lot.. I just couldn't pull the trigger...I won with Houston +4 anyway and maybe was just a little greedy..
Extrap..thanks for that..JNJ..that was some story.. I read it and it took 20 minutes..

today
3-2 +3*'s
didn't count the in live wagering of the Ga St game but won by a point.. or the Davidson moneyline win that was sweet..

I watched the selections on TBS and ESPN
I did 4 games tonite and came up with some lines.. I know they are out but cannot look at them before I handicapp...I just did teams that I know..will do some games tomorrow and look
if I see the lie before I get influenced by it...lets see how off I am

Duke -20 over Iona
UCLA -3 over Bonnies
Zona -7 over Buffalo
Texas -1 over Nevada
Kentucky -3 over Davidson
will come back tomorrow ...hopefully not to far off..did a "cliff note " capping on these...
again thank you..