SUN, JUDGE, LONGHORN & other respected Big 12 cappers

[Allnet]

I remember watching the Neb/USC game...Callahan went on a fake punt early in game, and failed......I told myself, the guy doesn't think they have a chance...sure enuff they didn't.

But, I admit in this game I am biased...I have been waiting for weeks to go against the Huskers and this is it..........rain or shine...me on the Horns!!

common opponent Iowa St

neb wins 28-14 ...21-7 at the half
tx wins 37-14 ....30-0 at the half

 

[Sun Tzu]

It wasnt 30-0 at the half. It was 16-14 early in 2nd qtr, 30-14 at half, and 37-14 final. Iowa State blew many chances. Moved the ball easily through the air. In any event...I dont buy game comparisons like that.

 

[Allnet]

My bad...misread the box scores....sorry about that.

 

[The Judge]

It wasnt 30-0 at the half. It was 16-14 early in 2nd qtr, 30-14 at half, and 37-14 final. Iowa State blew many chances. Moved the ball easily through the air. In any event...I dont buy game comparisons like that.

While head to head comparisons are certainly overused by many when handicapping a game, they also should not be discounted entirely.

I have to believe the Horns cover this small number easily. GL

 

[LET'S EAT!!!]

completely agree on this point. its amazing how some will twist stuff to rationalize a play. what did people expect this line to be? to me, this is texas or nothin. this line/setup is almost identical to ohio state and iowa. very capable home dog playing against a premier program that is looking to re-establish conference hegemony.

very well said gman...i find it laughable to hear some people talk as if they have found the super secret formula that tells them which side vegas wants the suckers to bet....gimme a break....i figured the line would be 4 to 4.5 and my book opened at 6....what the fvk do i know?....also it is very much like osu/iowa....where alot of people were saying that vegas wanted osu money and how iowa would cover and osu was a trap....blah-blah-blah....i got a brilliant idea for some....how bout capping a game and place a wager based on those results and what the line is,instead of trying to out think vegas by going the other way of the side "you" think they want u to play....just an idea i dont know:shrug: ....my #'s said horns by 11.5 so i played em at 6.....who knows?...my luck nebraska wins by 17....good luck

 

[gman2]

very well said gman...i find it laughable to hear some people talk as if they have found the super secret formula that tells them which side vegas wants the suckers to bet....gimme a break....i figured the line would be 4 to 4.5 and my book opened at 6....what the fvk do i know?....also it is very much like osu/iowa....where alot of people were saying that vegas wanted osu money and how iowa would cover and osu was a trap....blah-blah-blah....i got a brilliant idea for some....how bout capping a game and place a wager based on those results and what the line is,instead of trying to out think vegas by going the other way of the side "you" think they want u to play....just an idea i dont know:shrug: ....my #'s said horns by 11.5 so i played em at 6.....who knows?...my luck nebraska wins by 17....good luck

over the last few years, it seems like an inordinate number of people are taking legitimate capping tools and distorting them so bad that these 'capping concepts' have almost become parodies of themselves.

anti-public? certainly a valid capping tool/concept.
but laughable when you see a play being rationalized with "im fading the 61% on so and so...."

vegas wants "so and so" money? valid tool when kept in the proper context and applied to a correct type of game.
but laughable when you hear "vegas is begging for louisiana monroe money" or "the squares are all over montana state and vegas doesnt give away free money on these big sky games".

to be fair, texas/nebraska is a marquee game. but how could anyone expect this line to be higher than it is? it seems pretty accurate. time to set aside all the other nonsense and cap the game.

 

[LET'S EAT!!!]

over the last few years, it seems like an inordinate number of people are taking legitimate capping tools and distorting them so bad that these 'capping concepts' have almost become parodies of themselves.

anti-public? certainly a valid capping tool/concept.
but laughable when you see a play being rationalized with "im fading the 61% on so and so...."

vegas wants "so and so" money? valid tool when kept in the proper context and applied to a correct type of game.
but laughable when you hear "vegas is begging for louisiana monroe money" or "the squares are all over montana state and vegas doesnt give away free money on these big sky games".

to be fair, texas/nebraska is a marquee game. but how could anyone expect this line to be higher than it is? it seems pretty accurate. time to set aside all the other nonsense and cap the game.

exactly....by no means do i think using contrarian methodology or anti-public methodology as tools or elements to capping is absurd.....but to place a wager solely or mainly on these principles is an absolute joke....i think its comical and ur right it appears to be a more and more popular trend as of late.....i think vegas is laughing there asses off too....i dont know,maybe its out of laziness for not wanting to spend the time it takes to cap games that has made it so popular

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

exactly....by no means do i think using contrarian methodology or anti-public methodology as tools or elements to capping is absurd.....but to place a wager solely or mainly on these principles is an absolute joke....i think its comical and ur right it appears to be a more and more popular trend as of late.....i think vegas is laughing there asses off too....i dont know,maybe its out of laziness for not wanting to spend the time it takes to cap games that has made it so popular

I think it is laughable that people quote trends provided by a sportsbook. I also think its laughable that people think the casino is looking to get even money on every game. If you don't think psychology and inside info is used to make betting lines, you're in the wrong racket.

I suppose the Auburn/Florida line from last weekend was expecting even money on both sides by favoring a team off an embarrassing loss over the #2 team in the country. Makes sense to me.

Am I saying every line is set this way? Hell no. Am I saying that everyone of the wrong favorites, 6.5 & 2.5 dogs are guaranteed winners? Of course not. However, understanding that opportunities exist outside of your Gold Sheet and USA Today Sports section might help you win a few more games than you lose.

For the people that think the line should have opened at 4.5, why wouldn't you bet it at +6.5? That's 2 free points.

I will be on Nebraska if I bet this at all.

Just my two cents and good luck.

 

[ThrowinPicks]

I hear folks saying that but I dont buy it. i really think the line is where I expected. I dont know how anyone can say the line is begging for Texas money. Heck, you have a once beaten team at home against a frosh QB and some injury issues getting a td. I could argue it is begging for Husker money. This is one of those nonsensicel things that people will twist to suit their agenda for either side.

I really think this game is a no play either way.

Begging for Husker money would be Texas -8.5. And at that line, would probably cover. Texas wins by 3 or 4 on Saturday.

 

[Jayhawk_Thor]

By no means respected either...

But I am on Nebraska +6.5 and the ML. Reasons in my Big 12 thread.

GL.

 

[3 Seconds]

If Texas does not cover -6.5..........


I will never post at MJ's again.


:scared :scared

:sadwave:

:nono:

I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that UT will make this much easier than most of you think.....:SIB

 

[tendog]

why would you say that? it is just one of thousands of games and to say you will never post here again if texas doesnt win by at least 7 is idiotic. i really dont care if you post here again, but that statement is bizarre.

 

[3 Seconds]

why would you say that? it is just one of thousands of games and to say you will never post here again if texas doesnt win by at least 7 is idiotic. i really dont care if you post here again, but that statement is bizarre.

Thanks for your opinion for whatever it is worth & thanks for caring....

You broke my heart.....:142lmao:

 

[tendog]

i really dont care to see you leave, and dont know if texas will cover or not. just dont see the point of no longer posting if they dont.

 

[3 Seconds]

i really dont care to see you leave, and dont know if texas will cover or not. just dont see the point of no longer posting if they dont.

Call it a leap of faith. :com:

Good Health to ya if you take the Huskers!

At least one of us will be happy after this one.

Texas by 7 or more or else I am

:sadwave:

 

[hedman]

I remember watching the Neb/USC game...Callahan went on a fake punt early in game, and failed......I told myself, the guy doesn't think they have a chance...sure enuff they didn't.

But, I admit in this game I am biased...I have been waiting for weeks to go against the Huskers and this is it..........rain or shine...me on the Horns!!

common opponent Iowa St

neb wins 28-14 ...21-7 at the half
tx wins 37-14 ....30-0 at the half

NU actually was successful on that fake punt. Callahan played to tight to the vest against USC and it showed by just trying to keep it close, and it could have been had Lucky not fumbled and Grixbie intercept Booty and return it.

Your thoughts on the Iowa State game are off as well. UT was not 30-0 at half. If you watched both games and that is your angle on how you wager UT is the sure play. NU had a long TD before half to make it 21-7 and then slept walk through the 2nd, and Iowa St had some huge calls go against them, UT just rolled them.

I think the difference here, is Mo Purify, if NU has a chance this special wide out has a big day.

 

[Sooner P.I.M.P]

JUST MY 2CENTS

JUST MY 2CENTS

This is one tricky game UT by all stats and the eyeball test is the Better team no doubt but this kinda reminds me of the A&M vs Missouri game in that you know Missou is the better team but the Kyle feild factor same deal in Lincoln. This being Colt Mccoys first true bigXII road test might be rough. I think UT wins but the Huskers cover the 6.5!
GL.

 

[hedman]

This is one tricky game UT by all stats and the eyeball test is the Better team no doubt but this kinda reminds me of the A&M vs Missouri game in that you know Missou is the better team but the Kyle feild factor same deal in Lincoln. This being Colt Mccoys first true bigXII road test might be rough. I think UT wins but the Huskers cover the 6.5!
GL.

I really like the Missou - A & M comparison. I agree.

 

[Sun Tzu]

NU actually was successful on that fake punt. Callahan played to tight to the vest against USC and it showed by just trying to keep it close, and it could have been had Lucky not fumbled and Grixbie intercept Booty and return it.

Your thoughts on the Iowa State game are off as well. UT was not 30-0 at half. If you watched both games and that is your angle on how you wager UT is the sure play. NU had a long TD before half to make it 21-7 and then slept walk through the 2nd, and Iowa St had some huge calls go against them, UT just rolled them.

I think the difference here, is Mo Purify, if NU has a chance this special wide out has a big day.

With the expected weather I doubt any wideout has a special day. And texas will have all the starters back in the secondary for the first time in several weeks.

 

[Sun Tzu]

I really like the Missou - A & M comparison. I agree.

Not really....Mizzou was a fraud as I had previously discussed. Texas is not last year's team, but they are no Mizzou. And AM is the worst 6-1 team in the country...the Huskers dont deserve that comparison either.