sunday 11/23/03 nfl plays............

gman2

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really like this nfl card this weekend.

buffalo moneyline (+140) over indianapolis
seattle moneyline (+142) over baltimore
san diego moneyline (+142) over cincinnati

all 3 plays fall into the same spread range (3-pt dogs) and i think all three win outright.

buffalo.....ill never be sold on indy as a road chalk. i guess the board can count on me to go anti-colts on the road from here on out. cashed a nice moneyline against em 2 weeks ago in jacksonville. colts have had a tendency to play up and down to their competition all year. not sure if people have taken note, but bills defense at home this year has been damn solid. theyre letting up just about 11 ppg on the turf. no doubt bills have offense issues, but indy defense could prove to be the perfect elixir. while dungy has generally made the indy defense better, its still far from a dominant unit, and two mediocre teams tore it apart the last 2 weeks (jacksonville scored 28, jets scored 31). cant lay points on the road with a team who isnt stopping anyone consistently.

seattle.....normally this would be a spot where i would look to go anti-hawks, as theyve been great in the northwest, but pretty brutal away from home. but i just dont see the ravens getting the job done on offense. that baltimore defense has gotta be getting pissed. theyre playing outstanding, but baltimore cant move the ball worth shit. no way could i justify the seahawks as a chalk a thousand miles away from home, but as a dog- i gotta give em a shot. definitely a big game for baltimore, as they need a win to stay on top of the afc north, but theyre just not getting it done on both sides of the ball. wouldnt exactly surprise me to see baltimore come up big, but ill make the baltimore offense prove it to me. their last 6 quarters offensively has been absolutely embarrassing.

san diego....very simple principle here. bengals are a different team under lewis. but that doesnt mean theyre worthy of laying chalk on the west coast. bengals not a team thats used to dealing with prosperity. they already faltered in a similar role in arizona a few weeks ago. chargers are certainly no prize, but this is a pick game in my opinion. truly a coin flip. if bengals can follow up the kansas city upset with a win out on the west coast, theyll have earned my respect. i dont see it happening though

first game (buffalo) is a game where i think buffalo is simply better than indy with the game being in new york. the last two games (baltimore and cincy) are "prove it to me" games. if ravens find an offense all the sudden, i can deal with the unit loss. if bengals go cross-country to follow up their upset with yet another win, i can handle that loss too.

gl guys
 

GM

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Cinci is definitely in a letdown spot if ever there was one. I hadn't really thought about it til now, but I realized it after reading your post. Young, inexperienced team like Cinci...they knock off KC, now go on the road against a garbage (they think) team. Hell, they just beat the best team in the league. They must be thinking all they have to do is show up and they will knock off the hopeless Chargers. No...I don't think so. I like SD here. I also suspect Cinci may be the type of team that doesn't know how to handle success. Best to wait til late to bet this one because I am pretty sure the money's going on the Bengals this week.

Buffalo - Very hard for me to back them as poorly as they have been playing. But I am seeing systems, trends, you name it, pop up everywhere that says they are the side. The Bills have cost me some $$ this year so I'm leary to put any more on them. I don't think the Colts have played too many really good pass D's though...so this could be a bit of a shock to them. Cleveland (whose pass D I consider to be pretty good) held them to three FG's...albeit that was in Week 1. Interesting.

Seattle...man, I don't know. These guys have just racked up the frequent flyer miles this year. 3rd trip to the Eastern timezone in five games. Balt does not impress...but after a couple tough road games, I'm thinking the Seahawks might be just what they need to get back on track. So I must respectfully disagree with this one.

Good luck this week.
 
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gardenweasel

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just a note

just a note

on buff/indy......i`d check on moulds and henry`s status this week....they may or may not go.....and on the other side you`ve got harrison and pollard as?.......

a dome team coming off a big revenge win in which they put up a 38 spot.........coming into a cold weather environment..... both teams a bit hobbled on offense....buff not being able to score........

i was looking at under 37 or 38.....g.l.
 

Wolftaz

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Don't be so quick to discount Cincy in this spot. This team is in a different mind set than previous Bengal teams. Chargers are hurting on both sides of the ball and Cincy is finally getting its running game going in high gear to pair with a very explosive passing game. Lewis is making it a point to remind his team of the letdown in Arizona and I don't think you'll see the same performance in San Diego. Cincinnati has always been a better team in the second half of the season and they are that much more dangerous with a coach in the mold of Lewis. Cincy has been pretty good about holding high profile RB's in check this year such as Shaun Alexander, J. Lewis and P. Holmes, so don't be surprised if they hold Tomlinson in check.

:shrug:
 

Yo Eleven

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Buffalo Game?????

Buffalo Game?????

FYI - Henry has a cracked Tibula (broken leg) and Mould has a torn groin and should be ineffective if he plays. Starting Tackle Mike Williams rolled his SUV over on his way to the Houston game and injured his shoulder. Also it will be 60 and nice on Sunday in Buffalo, so no cold weather game there. Buffalo hasn't scored a touchdown in 3 full games and their defense has only really stopped the likes of Houston, Dallas, and Washington lately; no offensive juggenauts there. Greg Williams is a dolt, about to get fired, or no new contract at the best; he will surely guide the Bills into another home field debacle this weekend. Manning's had his way with Buffalo in their last 2 contests.

Can't really see backing the Bills. :nono:
 
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Lestat

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Yo eleven: Henry has a crack in his Fibula, which is the supporting bone of the lower leg. It only bears about 20% body weight. The Tibia is the main bone of the lower leg. If he is able to play, I think the Bills chances improve significantly, even if Henry is used as a play action decoy. The Colts on the road, away from the friendly confines of the Dome, in a cold-weather environment; give me the points and I'll take the Bills in a heartbeat.
 

Yo Eleven

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Travis Henry

Travis Henry

Lestat: That's a good point on Henry. He definitely will whack up some serious pain killers and play if he can. He's as tough as they come in that aspect; playing hurt. But, he is in the last year of his contract though and can't wait to get out of Buffalo, especially after Buffalo insulted him by drafting Willis Magahee. His mom called some Buffalo radio station after the draft and said Henry couldn't wait until next year to move on to another team. I'm sure he (and especially his agent and mom) would prefer him to heal up. Personally I would never play with a cracked fibula, tibula or any leg bone!! Sunday will not be a cold weather game. The forecast is 60 degrees and pleasant. It's been unseasonably nice in Buffalo all week and i supposed to continue into early next week.

:)
 

gman2

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thanks for all the responses guys. very valuable info. im sticking with buffalo. just not sold on indy laying those road points. we'll see how it shakes out.

added this one:

houston (+5.5) over new england

following a well-respected capper on this one (ST). was leaning this way from the start. just needed a little push. i think its the right side.

gl boys
 

gman2

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2h addition:

1 unit.....clowns (-3) over pittsburgh
both teams stagnant on offense. steelers scored 10 points directly off cleveland turnovers inside their own 25. both teams desperate, but counting on the clowns to find a way to win.
 

gman2

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clearly a bad play on san diego. cincy was very impressive. major props to lewis and co. on the west coast. no letdown whatsoever.

as for buffalo and seattle moneylines..........well, im not sure what to say. ill let others form an opinion as to whether those were sound plays or not.

1-4 on the afternoon (-3.1 units)

small play for sunday night:

1/2 unit....washington (+7)
1/2 unit....washington moneyline (+280)

my forecast has washington leading 23-10 after 3 quarters only to lose 24-23 on a griese touchdown run with under 0:30 seconds to go.
 

JEFF

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hey gman, you should have had both thoseMl dogs. Buffalo choked and Sea absoluetly gagged and swallowed theirown tongues. That was a comeback similar to the MNF Colts-Bucs games. Tough breaks but keep up the hard work and it'll be all good.
 

ELVIS

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seahags f'd me nicely today. pathetic. goes with my original post that they suck and they do.
 

gman2

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damn, i was just kidding when i offered the 23-10 washington end of the 3rd quarter prediction. what are the chances of that :shrug: . heads will roll though if the second part of my sarcastic premonition ends up being true. (although given the way bills and seahawks choked for me, wouldnt be surprised)
 

Nole

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Hey gman. It may be Fieldler instead of Griese but who cares.

You predict this outcome, you're going to Vegas in Dec w/me and the Mrs. :D

nole
 

gman2

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unreal.
i get jammed on moneylines with seattle and buffalo choking away 17 and 11 point 4th quarter leads, respectively.

so i throw out a scenario where my washington moneyline chokes in the 4th quarter.

god is truly fu/cking with me, lol
:D
doesnt he know i was being sarcastic when i said miami will be down 23-10 after 3 only to screw me on the moneyline 24-23?
come on god, youre supposed to be omniscient and recognize my sarcasm. wtf? :D
 
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