Sunday April 22nd

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Sunday April 22nd 2007

yesterday: 4-3 +4.75 (rockin' on a 3 day winning streak)
2007: 73-61 +16.11
ml 52-26 +22.74 (3-0 yesterday and 13-2 last 3 days)
rl 6-4 +1.53
totals 8-12 -10.33 (can't hit one to save my life?f'en grand slam)
parlays 7-19 +2.17 (nice 4-teamer hit yesterday)

system sides now 23-14 (value indicator any+10,+7at60+,+5at65+)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Fla 52 (Obermueller-Williams)
Mets 60 (-115)+6
phil 51 (+122)+5
hou 61 (-137)+3
stl 56 (-140)-3
sd 57 (-110)+3
Sf 66 (-180)+1
Lad 55 (-130)-2
Det 63 (-165)even
tor 55 (-105)+3
clev 57 (-115)+3
min 64 (-150)+4
Tex 54 (-102)+3
Laa 60 (-140)+1
Bost 58 (-175)-6

system totals

sd@Col ov10 64% (-115)+10
oak@Tex ov10 63 (+100)+13

note: Emmel is not a good ump for anyone playing the Smoltz-Glavine matchup under?he's a bit of an over-ump.

No system sides today. I figured today would be quiet. Mets are almost a play (need +7 it's only +6) but not quite; Smoltz and the Braves could be winners tomorrow, anyway--not the best game on the board.
I might try a few?one I like for sure (Astros).
Be back in a bit to post my picks

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Glavine vs Braves

Glavine vs Braves

He's lifetime 3-10 in 16 starts with a 5.55 era and .300 baa.

Almost took Mets...tempting (have 'em on a parlay).

No play here.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

that runline sure is tempting, though...
+185

...sheet...

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Maddux at Coors

Maddux at Coors

Greg is 6-1 in 8 starts at Coors, but with a 5.96 era.
Already took the loss in a 4-3 game April 6th in SD.
Rockies are tough to sweep at home.
I like the Pads, and think Hirsh is an illusion, but don't know about the sweep.

Price is sure right, though.

-105

 

[RAYMOND]

YOUR UP EARLY OR UP LATE:mj07:

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

SF runline

SF runline

Giants -1.5 52% (+116)+5

Not tons of value (+5), for a 52%'er, but I might give it a shot. Giants scoring runs is my only concern--Petit and a so-so bullpen shouldn't present much of a task, but I thought they would feast yesterday of Gonzalez, so you never know

Cain is cool
Maybe not as good as, say, Hamels (too early to tell), but freakin' hot currently--3 base hits allowed over his past 2 starts (14 innings). Both losses...strange enough.
SF is 0-3 in Cain starts, with 6 runs scored in those 3 games.

They owe him big time.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

...still going...

...still going...

Tigers are tempting--Verlander is incredible.

Thing is, he's 1-4 vs the Chisox in 5 starts with a 7.82 era.
Cintron,Crede,Dye,Pierzynski,Podsednik & Thome have all had good cuts vs Verlander.

I don't think TOO much of Garland, but he's a decent B-grade pitcher.

Price is kinda high (-165) but Verlander seems to be an even better pitcher than last year, his rookie campaign, which is when those 5 starts vs the Sox happened.

Tempting.

I'm on the verge.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

ump (McLelland) in Detroit is a bit of an over-ump, otherwise I might try the under here

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Trachsel 3-0 in 4 starts vs Jays with a 3.20 era.
He's had 2 good starts vs 1 bad, so far this year, also.

Chacin has been decent, but he can be hit; Orioles don't hit lefties so well, mind you, and Chacin does have a 2.93 era vs O's in 6 starts (2-3)

Jays have gone kinda cold, all of the sudden.
(losing Ryan and Glaus doesn't help)

No play on my beloved Jays, today, but I think that they have a decent shot to salvage a game in this series, so I stand by the 55%

Minimal value at -105

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Westbrook has been dogsh!t this year.

I kinda like the injuns (57%) but Shields has been decent in 2 of 3 (certainly better than Westbrook), and D'Rays play best ball at home.

Over is tempting (ump Runge is even) but 10.5 blows

Westbrook should come around (a little).

Play is Injuns or pass.
-115 needs 54% hits to break even, so at 57% I've only getting a +3 value indicator
Not much for a 57%'er

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

twins@Royals

twins@Royals

De La Rosa has been brutal in 16.2 innings vs the Twins (0-3 with a 7.02 era)

Ortiz has been brutal vs KC (8 starts, 3-4 with a 7.09 era!)

Smells like an over.
Umpire (Drake) is a bit of an over ump, too.

Problem with such a play is how Ortiz seems to have rejuvenated his career so far in 2007, through 3 starts (3-0 with a 2.05 era).
Ortiz has always had high era's, baa's, you-name-it.
He's sucked.
Now he's suddenly superman?
I don't know if I believe it.

Might be worth a shot at the -150, though, as Royals reek, and I'd take just about anybody over De La Rose, despite his solid outing vs Detroit this year.

Tough call, this one.
Should be Twinkies to win.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

another total (uh-oh)

another total (uh-oh)

pitt@Lad un8 62% (+100)+12

ump Rapuano is pretty even for this one

I dunno...didn't hit this total, yesterday.
Gorzelanny may match up with Snell, but Tomko is a step down from Penny, in my opinion.

tempting.
maybe with a better ump.

Maybe with a better totals record:scared

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

PICKS...finally...PICKS...

PICKS...finally...PICKS...

PLAYS

no system sides

other sides

astros -137 3.42/2.5
cards -140 1.05/0.75
padres -105 1.05/1
Giants -1.5 +116 1/1.16
Tigers -165 1.65/1
twins -150 1.5/1
Angels -140 1.4/1

totals

philly@Reds un9.5 -110 0.52/0.48
pitt@Lad un8 +100 0.6/0.6
min@Kc ov9.5 -115 0.53/0.47
a's@Tex ov10 +100 0.5/0.5

6-teamer
--Mets ml
--astros ml
--Giants ml
--Tigers ml
--twins ml
--Angels ml
+2065
0.3/6.2

4-teamer
--astros ml
--Giants ml
--Tigers ml
--twins ml
+603
0.3/1.82

2-teamer
--astros ml
--Giants ml
+165
1/1.65

That's probably it for me, today.
May your mishaps be infrequent

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

recommended team totals

recommended team totals

Brewers un4
chisox un4

padres over 5 looks tasty too, with the way they've been hitting in Colorado, as I don't believe Hirsh is for real AND the umpire is a bit of an over play

d'backs under 4 is also bonus, though Giants pen kinda sucks; Cain should bring it

twins may also score 6 and the Angels over any total has a decent shot; ump co-operates in the Twinkies game, at least; Weaver is the reason for the Angels over call

Speaking of Weaver's...I can't wait for Jered's next start--I think he's kinda undervalued, despite the gaudy numbers last year, and the Angels are a relatively cheap play most games.

I'm probably in deeper than I should be today, what with no system plays and few hot-shot starters going (Oswalt a big exception). I'll be thrilled with 4 out of 7 sides (with Houston, of course) and 2/4 on totals. Should hit that 2-teamer parlay, but either of the others would be super-gravy.

May your fortunes be multipied