Sunday August 12th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Sunday August 12th 2007

yesterday: 9-5 +3.77
August: 64-48 +21.92
ml 29-21 +8.69
rl 5-1 +4.69
totals 16-11 +2.68
parlays 14-15 +5.86
system picks still 10-7 in August (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 5-0 yesterday; 21-14 in August (60%)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Mets 66% (-210)-2 RL 52 (+101)+2
sd 58 (-142)-1
Phil 54 (-117)even
mil 51 (-103)even
Stl 56 (-122)+1
Col 58 (Hirsh-Marshall)
pitt 59 (+103)+9
wash 51 (+142)+9
Det 62 (-138)+4
nyy 65 (-130)+8 RL 52 (+120)+6
bost 63 (-165)even
seat 54 (-103)+3
Laa 68 (-179)+3 RL 54 (+116)+7
Kc 53 (-101)+2
Tex 55 (-140)-4

system totals

mil@Hou ov9.5 79% (-105)+27 --ump Bell is an under-ump; kills this one
tor@Kc un9 65 (-111)+12 --ump Knight is even


After midnight, we gonna let it all hang out.

Cool that system totals swept the board?justifiably nixing the Ameriquest game with Eddings umping. Hit 2-1 on the moneyline, 3-0 on totals. Went 4-4 on my parlays and IF's but actually dropped a unit there. I'm just glad that there's been no repeats of Thursday. A repeat of yesterday would be okay as I, again, don't see much on the board of interest. A repeat of Friday would be better, but I likely won't have that much action. That could change but I doubt it.

Sunday has the Yankees as a system pick. Looks like one of the safer calls you could make today. I'm on 'em. Very close to being system picks (ie some apparent value) are the Pirates and the Nationals. Pirates really scoring lately and have the better lefty going in this matchup. D'Backs still really can't hit lefties, as they showed again yesterday, and the Nationals 7 and 10-day offensive numbers are still pretty high for them?they probably have much more fun facing a weak Owings, today, than they had with stud Webb yesterday; I have Bacsik rated lower than Lannan, but he's still capable of keeping his team in the game.
Tigers also appear to have some value; should get revenge on an SP they've recently faced. Can Robertson hold the fort, though? Ump Hernandez is even, for this contest, so my system call of over 10 at 56% gets no bonus?not a system total.
Some value with the Angels runline, too, though they're only 1-1 on the runline in this series, after the Twins scored off of K-Rod in the 9th (cost me about a unit).

I should have pounded the system totals but who knew? At least I went 3-0.
One ump-kill in Houston leaves just the Jays-Royals game under, and not a very high call at that (65% is minimum for "system totals"). I'm still not sure how I want to approach this game?Jays offense really looks like garbage at times?not sure what to expect from Burnett?I already have a series play on T.O. so I need the Jays, but don't know if I want to combat Bannister with (any more of) my money; maybe the under would be best for me.

Will post plays and what pleases the pallet.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

some possible team totals
(w/relative system number; + for overs, etc.)

Mets ov5.5 +100 (+9)Vanden Hurt is a good victim for this

Reds un4 -135 (-10)think I want me some of this

braves ov5.5 +105 (+8)ump Winters is a slight under-ump, which hurts these; Moyer chucked one solid vs Braves already in '07
Phillies ov5.5 -110 (+12)Phillies mauled Carlylye in an earlier '07 meeting

brewers ov4.5 -125 (+7)ump Bell hurts a little

Giants un5 -175 (-10)great total--crappy price; maybe for me on a parlay, somewhere, or else I'll stick with my Pitt moneyline
pirates ov3.5 -115 (0)inclduing this one because the Pirates sticks are hot lately, Zito is cold lately, Pirates hit lefties better than righties, the total is too low and the umpire, in Reininger, helps if anything (he's 2-0 overs this season and last season, in 11 games, he had a very low K%); I might try this one...playin' the Pirates anywho so why not cheer them to score 4?...not an unreachable number by any stretch of the imagination, here

Tigers ov5.5 +120 (+11)might as well play the game total over at this point in time...needing 6 to bag it; price is nice, though; Tigers still tops in MLB vs lefties and have faced this guy once, recently; I'd like a piece of Detroit but still don't know how best to play them

yankees ov5 -125 (+12)again looks good; Yanks score 6 and they should win, so the moneyline looks a bit safer

bosox ov5.5 -130 (+10)Trachsel actually has pretty good numbers vs the Bosox and he's been decent over his past 2...call would be all Boston if Schilling weren't such a wildcard here...I think I still want me some of Boston, runline IF or something

m's ov5 -130 (+9)smokin' lefties in general and smokin' in this series at US Cellular; I'd like the M'S more if Weaver hadn't been so bad over his past couple (opponent's hit .350+ off him); still debating this game as a whole, though this total looks worthwhile, maybe...I'm not high on Danks as he hasn't shown too much (positive) this season

twins un4 -150 (-8)too expensive the way Weaver is going currently; Twins not reaching this figure much for weeks and weeks now, but this is too expensive for a 4; small runline for me or pass...maybe a moneyline parlay would be better, in fact, if I really feel the need to back the Angels today

d'rays ov5.5 +105 (+7)was yesterday all Eddings???...D'Rays faced the preferred lefty and only got 3 there, so this one looks real iffy against a pretty (seemingly-)solid lefty; this game won't get any of my money, if I'm smart
Rangers ov5.5 -120 (+11)I think that Hammel is big-time fade material, as was Sonnanstine a couple of days ago, but I don't like the price on the Rangers moneyline and I don't like the fact that the Rangers were shut out by a (normally) soft righty yesterday
--this game has a system call of 64% for the over 11 so not quite making a "system total" (65% minimum)--I even checked out the ump, for a possible bonus, but DeMuth is even at best, or maybe even a slight under-lean--no ump bonus--too big a number for a system total


That's the goods here today.
They've been coming in pretty good for the past week or so.
Might try a few of them.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

New car, caviar, four-star daydream...think I'll buy me a football team.

New car, caviar, four-star daydream...think I'll buy me a football team.

PLAYS

system picks

yankees -130 5.2/4

other picks

padres -142 1.42/1
pirates +103 1.5/1.55
nationals +142 0.7/1
Tigers -136 1.36/1
Mariners -103 0.76/0.74

totals

tor@Kc un9 -111 1.11/1

2-teamer (Vegas-likely Series matchup)
--Mets ml
--bosox ml
+137
0.73/1

2-teamer (highest system calls)
--Mets ml
--Angels ml
+130
1/1.3

2-teamer (home lefties)
--Mets ml
--Rangers ml
+152
0.65/1

2-teamer (best-looking team totals)
--Reds under 4
--yankees over 5
+214
0.5/1.07

2-teamer (who was the better '07 Bosox SP?)
--red sox ml
--Rangers ml
+175
0.57/1

11-team IF bet
1.Mets -1.5 1/0.95
2.yankees 0.65/0.5
3.pirates 0.65/0.65
4.brewers over4.5 0.75/0.6
5.Tigers 1.2/0.8
6.tor@Kc un9 1.25/1
7.red sox 1.71/1
8.Angels -1.5 1/1.05
9.Phillies 1.3/1
10.padres 3/2
11.Rangers -1.5 1/1.35
1.0 to win max.10.9

13-team IF bet
1.Phillies -1.5 0.5/0.78
2.padres 0.75/0.5
3.Tigers 0.75/0.5
4.mariners 0.77/0.7
5.jays@Kc un9 1.25/1
6.Mets -1.5 1.05/1
7.red sox -1.5 1.15/1
8.Angels -1.5 1/1.05
9.pirates 1.47/1.47
10.yankees 1.3/1
11.Rangers 2.9/2
12.nationals 1/1.4
13.mil@Hou ov9.5 2.1/2
0.5 to win max.14.4

10-team IF bet
1.Tigers -1.5 0.6/0.81
2.mariners 0.66/0.6
3.bosox -1.5 0.8/0.7
4.Mets -1.5 0.52/0.5
5.blue jays 1.1/1
6.yankees 1.3/1
7.pirates 1.59/1.59
8.nationals 1/1.4
9.brewers over4.5 1.25/1
10.Angels -1.5 2/2.1
0.6 to win max.10.7

12-team IF bet
1.Rangers -1.5 0.6/0.81
2.Angels -1.5 0.5/0.53
3.jays@Kc un9 0.62/0.5
4.yankees over5 0.75/0.6
5.padres 1.2/0.8
6.Mets over5.5 0.66/0.66
7.Phillies 1.3/1
8.pirates 0.9/0.9
9.Tigers -1.5 0.8/1.08
10.mariners 1.65/1.5
11.nationals 1.3/1.82
12.red sox 3.42/2
0.6 to win max.12.2


Going to see if I can get away with this.
Mostly I'm a Yankees fan today, but I've got lots of other opinions, too, as you can see.

I think that 65% is a reasonable call for the Yankees in this contest. It's certainly a high call for a visitor, especially one to Jacob's, but this road team has had some time, now, to get comfortable hitting at Jacobs's?they've looked "comfortable", haven't they? Westbrook shouldn't present too many problems and the Yanks Pettitte has been solid lately.

Yankees 65% (-130)+8

-130 is 76.9 cents on the dollar
65 x 0.769 = 49.985 (call it 50, for crying out loud)
??????50
35 x -1?..= -35
----------------------------
??????15%

That's pretty good. Really good for such a high call.
Need this one Grando Mucho!


Monday looks pretty drab. Giants in both games if Cain v. Maholm and Lowry v. Youman; calls will only be mid-50ish, so anything over -120 and I pass (like the Cain game better). It will be tough for me to pass on Oswalt the way he's currently chuckin', but he'll likely command Oswalt money and Billingsley just threw a great game vs the Astros last month; still?Oswalt gets to face some pretty cold sticks and I think I hop on it at -130 or better; game will likely be a system under. Bosox 51% over the D'Rays (Shields-Wakefield)?I won't change that call unless something really strange happens with one of the teams today; D'Rays with an edge at SP, despite Wakefield's good numbers vs D'Rays; Bosox an edge at the dish but it's not ginormous as the D'Rays are really hitting great right now; I'd try the 'Rays at +150 (won't be that high, I figure); game would be a system over at a 9 but we'll likely see 9.5 or 10. Tigers (w/Durbin) to take down a struggling Gaudin?I think it's now 6 straight games at 4-6 earned runs each time, for him; line similar to today's and I try it similar to today's play; game will be a system over at a 9.5, as long as no pena for the ump (it's right at 65% for a 9.5). Wang over Guthrie, though Wang's numbers vs the O's are pretty bad this year, while Guthrie has been decent vs the Yankees; I just can't see the Yankees dropping this homestand opener?will like it better if Yankees win today?will like EVERYTHING better if the Yankees win today; I'd need better than -150 to Wang Chung, so it likely won't happen (Yankees over 4.5 if they put up such a juicy total). No matter what happens today, Jays will look real good for the closer tomorrow; I'll play the Jays (Litsch-Perez) at up to -150 for that one, but it's got to be way cheaper than that looking at the first 3 lines in this series?-120 would kind of make sense?hoppy; game will be a system over at up to a 10.5?maybe not if today's is like a 2-1 final or something. Twins (Santana-Hernandez) will have a game on their hands the way the M's are starting to hit, again, lately, the way the M's take care of lefties in general, the way the Twins really aren't hitting, and the way that Felix has pitched vs the Twins before (he's only 2-2 vs but with a ton of K's and a BAA of only .208); looks like a coin-toss, really; I might try the M's depending on what happens today and depending on how doggie-like they are; this game will be a system under even at a 7.
Anxiously awaiting the lines.
I'll try to get Monday's board up early.
Just might be a few with pending adjustments based on Sunday action.

Gotta go burn some discs.
I'll catcha later.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

updated system statistics

updated system statistics

I've finally got this up-to-date, so here it is:

RESULTS (W-L)

???.?full?......April??..May??.June??July???August?..Sept?..October
Total..904-670..203-165..249-170..220-179?232-156?...93-57
51??...64-49?.17-15??14-13??18-13?.15-8???.12-3
52??...59-41?.13-13??15-10??14-12?.17-6???.10-5
53??...63-50?.16-16??15-10??13-12?.19-12??...6-5
54??...51-52?..14-8?...14-16??13-16?.10-12??...4-4
55??...59-50?..9-12??.15-14??18-11?.17-13??...6-5
56??...50-47..?17-4??.12-12??7-14?...14-17??...5-6
57??...52-29?...8-6??..20-11??7-7??.17-5???.7-3
58??...45-32?...8-11??11-5??..17-8?...9-8???.5-7
59??...48-37?..11-11?...15-9??..11-5?.11-12??...3-1
60??...41-39..?12-9??.11-12??9-8??.9-10???.9-3
61??...46-27?..10-8??.16-8??..7-4??.13-7???.4-3
62??...41-36?..10-8??.10-10??7-11?...14-7???.2-4
63??...49-45?..13-9??.12-8??..13-16?..11-12??..1-2
64??...36-28?..7-10??.11-6??..11-5?....7-7???..3-3
65??...44-20?..10-4??.10-9??..11-5??13-2???5-1
66??...36-19?...9-5??..10-5??..12-4??5-5???..2-1
67??...23-16.......6-2??..7-6???3-3??..7-5???...3-0
68??...20-8?.....5-4??..5-1???5-3??..5-0???...1-1
69??...9-6??...1-2??..3-2???2-2??..3-0??...?3-0
70??...16-9?.....2-2??..3-1???7-4??..4-2
71??...12-5?.....1-2??..5-0???6-2??..0-1???...1-0
72??...11-5..?...1-1??..4-1???1-2??..5-1
73??...9-4??...1-1??..4-0???2-0??..2-3
74??...6-5??...2-1??..3-0???1-4??..0-0????1-0
75??...2-6??...0-1??..1-1???1-3??..0-1
76??...1-2??...0-0??..1-0???0-2
77??...5-0??...0-0??..0-0???2-0??..3-0
78??...3-1??...0-0??..1-0???1-1??..1-0
79??...0-1???0-0??..0-0??...0-1
80??...3-1???0-0??..1-0??...1-1??..1-0
totals..229-177?..45-53?..61-41?...76-40?..47-43???21-14
(posted system totals)


About as well as I can line it up.

Good news for Yankees players: 65's are already at 5-1 in August (83% winners) and 49-21 for 2007 (70% winners).
Wish I could give a break-down of home-vs-away 65%'ers, but that would take some work.

Might have a friend checking this out today, so figured I'd post the results of my efforts.

Not a lot of 70's this month.
Yanks will see some on this homestand.

:00hour Go Yankees!!! :00hour

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

here come ol' flat top...

here come ol' flat top...

Eric Gagne has attempted to put a halt to my Perfect Day.

:00hour go go gadget Mojo Filter :00hour


:00hour :00hour Red Sox!!! :00hour :00hour

:weed:

:SIB

 

[thisisbad]

Are threads rooting for the REd Sox and Yankees even allowed?

BOL man

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

good point...

I don't really need this mother anywho.

Be happy enough if the Pirates hang on for victory.

Go :00hour Pirates! :00hour

:weed:

:SIB

 

[ESPNTED]

EX YOUR SO HOT LATELY THAT MY FINGERS ARE BURNING TYPING THIS MESSAGE!!!!!!

KEEP UP THE GREAT WORK!!!!

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

thanks a ton ESPNTED

I am having a lot of fun this weekend...

The Nationals, too?...I can do (almost) no wrong today.

My 4 IF plays are doing pretty good; the results (W-L) on my 4 IF plays, so far, are

1)6-2 (made 130%)
2)7-2 (made 100%)
3)7-1-1 (need Rangers RL for +100% to +300% if KC is under)
4)9-1 (really need Phillies RL; min. +200% to +600% if KC is under)


I'm going to get one to make it through one of these days; done it before.
Phillies play will die at pick #7, for 6x, if I hit 2 more.

Will have Monday's up within an hour (say, by 9 pm eastern or so).
Light board but I like the Astros, Tigers and Blue Jays, as I've suggested earlier in this very post. Astros and Jays are system picks.
Tigers just look good 'cause they're smoking at the plate in this series and face a struggling Gaudin.; Durbin a bit of a wildcard, for the Tigers pitching, but what Tigers SP (or reliever, for that matter) is currently NOT a wildcard for the Tigers pitching. Worth a play. I'm on all 3 a little heavier than normal due to my current 3-day winning streak, but none as heavy as I had the Yankees today. If I can hit 2 of those 3 I should be content plus.
I'm also on the twins-M's game under.
Looks good.
Side is a coin-toss.

I think I just need to hit 1 more play, today, to clear 10 units.

:00hour

:weed:

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Philly by 2 nets me another 4 units.
Only a half-unit risk there, too (IF play that lasted until game #7).

I have got to have horseshoes up my arse or something.

I'm looking at almost a 100% return on my investment for Sunday; 18 units in so I am very pleased.

Need 2 of 3 of Astros, Tigers and Blue Jays to make it a 4-day run.

I couldn't be much more confident.
A stretch like this will do that.

Party On!!!
:00hour
:weed:
:SIB

 

[Lookn4help]

Su picks

Su picks

Another great day for you. I don't understand the system you utilize but it certainly works. Keep up the good work.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

thanks a lot Lookn4help,

as long as it makes sense what I'm trying to do on page 1...to present probabilities for each game, then to measure it against the lines.

You can agree or disagree with the numbers but usually I think they make sense.
Been using it for years but the adjustments that I've made for this year I'm very happy with.

Still need some stats to improve but August is helping, so far.
System sides were 12-3 on Sunday (80%).
Brings August, for all games, to 105-60 (63.6% winners).
I couldn't ask for better than that for ALL games.
51's and 52's are kicking ass, for some reason (did last month too) and the only reason that I can think of is that maybe I'm picking a lot of the 50's correct--I won't post a game at 50% (min. 51) so sometimes I have to decide which side is getting the 51.

I'm going to re-post this in Monday's.
For some reason it seems interesting (the stats note, I suppose).

Fire away!

:weed: