Sunday August 19th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Sunday April 19th 2007

yesterday: 9-4 +12.59
August: 114-93 +53.24
ml 53-32 +38.43
rl 7-5 +0.84
totals 23-16 +4.59
parlays 31-40 +9.38
system picks 5-0 yesterday; 31-16 in August (66%) (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 4-3 yesterday; 34-23 in August (59.6%)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Atl 65% (-180)even
Fla 54 (-121)-1
mets 57 (-131)even
phil 53 (+101)+3
cin 52 (-103)+1
Sd 67 (-154)+6 RL 52 (+145)+11
Lad 55 (-144)-5
Cubs 62 (-158)even
Tor 63 (-180)-2
Nyy 67 (-191)+1 RL 54 (+100)+4
clev 55 (-136)-3
Bost 53 (-119)-2
Min 66 (-226)-4
Seat 72 (-164)+9 RL 58 (+134)+15
Oak 62 (-149)+2

system totals

sf@Fla un9 66% (+109)+18 --Barry is a major over-ump; kills this one
mets@Wash un8.5 76 (-119)+21 --ump Hickox is even
clev@Tb un9 66 (-122)+1 --Estabrook has done 1 career game ('07) which went under; if skipped for Hoye then that doesn't help as he's an over-lean
kc@Oak un9 71 (-110)+18 --ump is super-UNDER Eddings (8-point bonus given)


Slept right through until after 11 pm?missed all the excitement?too bad, today was a rock-solid day for me. At least I got up in time for a bit of a Putz scare?that was interesting. Swept the system picks so they're up to a respectable record, now, coming in at around 66% (after being close to .500 less than a week ago). Last weekend my stomping of the books took a break for Saturday but this weekend Saturday will likely turn out to be the best?I'm not crazy about what they're offering for Sunday?

Padres and Mariners are system picks, today. You'd think that the Padres could salvage one game in the series and Maddux has been quite sharp while Albers is only in there due to a shortage of decent arms in the Astros system; a bit risky with them having dropped the first two, and with their production down, again, to Petco levels, but I think I'll give them a go today (slim picken's anyways). Garland is 6-1, 2.59 era career vs the M's, but he's been quite cold lately, while Felix is coming off a gem he threw while combatting Johann Santana (not like shutting the Twins offense down is any mean feat lately); M's look good for the sweep, but it's quite expensive.

Rockies is the only other call that really has any value, if these numbers are even close. Francis over Tomko is the main reason but the Rockies sticks are doing better lately than the Dodgers'?I'd just like the call better if the Rocks could have taken at least one of the first two in the series (tied at 4's going to extra-innings as I type this). I might or might not try this one. Sides will be light for me, it appears.

Would be cool if I could get system totals over 60% for the month; they've been there before (May & June) while suffering some in July. The July results (47-43) were pretty bad so I'm glad they're back on track. Sometimes I'll give a modifier to the totals (minus for Eddings or Hirschbeck, e.g., and plus with Bucknor and Schrieber, e.g.) and I did for the McAfee game?it was at 63% so I checked the ump and it's Eddings, who's easily the best under-ump this year (only 12-14 but with a ginormous K%, as always); Hirschy's K% is almost as high but he's 9-9 on totals so far in '07. Anyways, more to the point?A's bats are rather quiet in this series and I think that DiNardo might tame the currently explosive Royals bats some; Davies looked great in his start prior to last, so I'll be hoping for a return to form there (if I tackle the under). No umpire help anywhere else. I'll consider the unders in Washington and Tampa Bay but I think I'll pass in Florida as Barry is 6-0 on totals this year (I'm going to start using the standard listing, with overs listed first, ie. OV-UN) with an extremely low K%--might rattle either Lowry or Willis; besides, Marlins OPS vs L is over .800 and I think they might be due for a breakout game in this series?a week or two ago they were really slugging; Willis isn't really a strong under-play this year, anyway.

Added the Dodgers line, with Penny; he's pitching on 3 days rest (threw 95 in last).

I should post this already.
Almost 2 am eastern.

Will likely add ramblings.
Hopefully of value.

GL

 

[bjfinste]

Are you saying the Oakland under is +18 with or without the Eddings bonus? I've had my eye on that one since I saw the crews yesterday and will be on it regardless, but was just curious how strong your numbers were on it without the "Doug" factor.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I got a flat 63% on the under (9).
9 is a fairly high total for McAfee and neither club's offense is spectacular.

Because it was close to my 65% cut-off for system totals, I checked out the ump for a possible bonus.

It's Eddings.

gave an 8% bonus,
leaving it at a 71% call for the under 9.

The +18 is a value indicator against the current line.

-110's have a break even mark of 53% (just under, actually, but I always round up).

The +18 is the 71%-53%=
+18

(in other words the +18 includes my Eddings-bonus)

Just need the Royals bats to calm down a little, I think, to nail this one.

GL

 

[bjfinste]

Much appreciated. Looks like a very strong play to me.

 

[bjfinste]

I don't mean to keep bugging you, but if you're around, would you mind telling me your numbers on the Milwaukee over tomorrow? The ump makes me leary but both teams should slug the hell out of the ball.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I've liked the over in every game in the series, so far.
Not sure I like it today, though.

System call is 57% over the 9.

Harang has been solid, most of the season, and he's chucked a great game vs the Brewers already in '07 (though his numbers vs in prior years aren't so hot.)
Capuano I have rated fairly low, especially for him, as he's had 4 straight bad games after looking pretty good 4 weeks ago, or so.

For team totals I'd have the Reds at +4 (Reds OPS vs L actually about 80 points lower than vs R) and the Brewers at -3.

I didn't even check the ump, for this one, as I think I'll leave it alone (unless I'm bold enough to try the Reds).

GL

P.S.
you're not bugging me
I really enjoy this stuff, especially while kicking some butt.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

some possible team totals
(w/relative system number; + for overs, etc.)

d'backs un4 -150 (-9)pass here as both Smoltz hasn't been dominating recently and the D'Backs just put up some big numbers Saturday
--have the Braves at +6

mets un4.5 -110 (-9)Hill looks fantastic and Mets might still be without Delgado; Mets team total has gone OVER for each of the first 2 games in the series (scored 6 then 7), but Mets OPS vs R about 60 points lower than vs L, so maybe Hill can keep them tame--still need the bullpen to be good, though, as I'd be surprised to see Hill go more than 7, tops (recently coming off the DL, and he wasn't stretching things out for 7 or 8 much before that); tough call, here, as the Mets are producing and the Nats bullpen is getting a workout in this series
Wash un4 -150 (-16)Orlando's last 2 haven't been spectacular but he has good career numbers vs the Nats, including from '07; kinda pricey
--you can see why I'm considering the game total under--I just didn't like getting burned on the under, there, yesterday, so I'm a little hesitant (got a 9, yesterday, while today I'd have to try an 8.5)

astros un4.5 -150 (-13)Maddux could pull it off here; I think that the Astros team total has played under each of the first two games, despite the very low totals, and despite winning both games; not sure if the ump will be Tichenor (only done 1 game this year--it went over) or skippage for Darling (a bit of an over-ump 5 or 6 years ago but looking like an under-lean lately--pretty high K% the past 2 1/2 seasons); Carlos Lee left Saturday's game, too, so he might not be in the lineup and he's one of their top hitter's
--have the Padres at +3

orioles un4 -135 (-10)if I want a peice of the Jays (which I sorta do) then this wouldn't be bad...runline might be best for me, actually, though a shutdown by Guthrie wouldn't surpise me (Jays having loads of trouble scoring vs righties this year, but Guthrie is coming off of 3 straight poor performances); Halladay is 14-4, 2.92 era vs the O's in his career but no meeting yet in '07...Halladay had a couple of sub-par outtings before his last, where he was spectacular
--have the Jays at -4
--at a 9 this would have been a system under, but at 8.5 it doesn't quite make it

Nyy ov5.5 -115 (+13)Bonderman has poor numbers against the Yanks, but none from '07; some kind of Yanks play might be better as Wang is 3-0, 2.52 era (in 4) vs the Tigers, none from '07
--have Tigers at -2

indians un5 -130 (-8)Shields has good career numbers vs the Indians, including from '07, and the Indians bats, excluding Saturday, haven't really been too productive lately (there still is Saturday's explosion to consider, though...mind you it was against super-fade material Hammel)
D'Rays un4 -120 (-11)Sabathia has good career numbers vs the D'Rays, including dominance over them in '07, but I recall a game earlier this week where Dice-K was in the same postiion as Sabathia and he just got lit up in Boston by these D'Rays (Dice's Fenway numbers ARE pretty bad); D'Rays OPS vs L over .800, which is another concern; price doesn't look too bad
--game total under looks okay, but not sure who the ump will be; if Hoye (I'm guessing) then he doesn't really help any unders (hurts a touch)

rangers un3.5 -150 (-7)Santana has a 5.05 career era vs the Rangers but did toss 1 beauty against them, at Ameriquest, in 2007; Santana hasn't dominated, really, for 3 straight starts now so I don't think I can tackle this number for such a hefty price tag, not to mention the extremely low total in the Metrodome for a team gauranteed 27 outs
--have the Twins at +4 (Millwood career era vs Twins at 7.26 (in 6) though none in '07)...still might be generous for the currently very light-hitting Twinkies

cws un4 -130 (-14)I'm going to back the M's, again, so this total doesn't interest me; ump Iassogna is even (though I remember him as being an under-ump way back in '02-'03ish)
--have the M's at +1

kc un4.5 -160 (-8)-160?!?!?...DiNardo has been too average for the past 4 starts to try this one, not to mention the way the Royals are hitting in this series, though ump Eddings should help both of these pitchers out greatly
--have the A's at +3


That's the bg ones.
Nothing looks spectacular to me today, out of all the numbers available.

Will at least try the Padres and the M's.
Also got some of that McAfee game under the 9.
Might try some fooling around...time will tell...
Got a fair bit of mad money to work with now.

:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

return on investment breakdown for system picks
---------------------------------------------------------------------
(Padres,Mariners)
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Padres 67% (-154)+6

--Maddux rated considerably higher than Albers and Padres pen far superior to Astros'
--Maddux is currently quite hot while Albers is fighting for his spot
--Astros are 16-28 on the road to R (.364)
--Astros OPS vs R only .723
--Padres OPS last 7 days .810
--Astros OPS last 7 days .737
--Astros are 12-23 in game #3 of a series (.343)
--Padres are 21-16 in game #3 of a series (.568)
--key bat Carlos Lee might be out due to injury

-154 is 64.9 cents on the dollar
67 x 0.649 = 43.483
33 x -1......= -33
---------------------------------
....................10.483%

That's acceptable for a better than 2/3 probability, as I'm calling it, at least.
One of the better plays on the board.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Mariners 72% (-158)+10

--Felix is much hotter than Garland right now, as Garland hasn't tossed a really good game for his past 5 or so
--M's bullpen much better
--M's OPS season vs R .744
--Chiisox vs R .704
--M's 7-day OPS .773
--Chisox 7-day OPS .649
--M's hitting .302 last 10 vs R
--Cws hitting .212 last 10 vs R
--Garland 6-1, 2.59 era vs M's but no meetings this year and he is very cold right now (9.64 era over his past 3)
--cws are 15-19 in game #3 of a series (.441)
--M's are 18-16 in game #3 of a series (.529)
--key bat Konerko out to attend funeral

-158 is 63.3 cents on the dollar
72 x 0.633 = 45.576
28 x -1......= -28
----------------------------------
....................17.576%

Looks pretty solid.
Mention that Dice-K game, again, as a recent example that records vs opponent can't always be relied upon (ie vs D'Rays, then whoops). Hopefully the M's can raise that career era vs them some...they seem to be catching him at a good time.

time to submit this already
i hope i get a good grade
(or at least a pair of Victories!)


:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:SIB

 

[rubiconed]

GL today, and thanks for all the work, and input !!! :00hour

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I'm in the high fidelity first-class travelling set and I think I need a Lear jet.

I'm in the high fidelity first-class travelling set and I think I need a Lear jet.

PLAYS

system picks

Padres -154 4.62/3
Mariners -158 4.74/3

other picks

Blue Jays -1.5 +125 0.6/0.75
angels +100 0.6/0.6
Twins -1.5 +100 0.6/0.6

totals

mets@Wash un8.5 -119 1.19/1
clev@Tb un9 -122 1.22/1
tex@Min un8 -121 1.21/1
kc@Oak un9 -110 1.1/1

2-teamer
--Braves ml
--Yankees ml
+133
0.6/0.8

2-teamer
--Marlins ml
--Blue Jays ml
+173
0.58/1

3-teamer (the too expensive AL favorites)
--Blue Jays ml
--Yankees ml
--Twins ml
+239
0.83/1.98

2-teamer
--Blue Jays ml
--Twins ml
+121
0.82/1

2-teamer
--Blue Jays ml
--clev-Tb un9
+167
0.6/1

2-teamer
--Yankees ml
--tex-Min un9
+171
0.58/1

2-teamer
--Twins ml
--kc-Oak un9
+168
0.59/1

11-team IF bet
1.Braves -1.5 0.5/0.53
2.D'Rays 0.5/0.62
3.reds 0.55/0.5
4.M's -1.5 0.6/0.75
5.Nyy -1.5 0.84/0.8
6.mets-Wash un8.5 1.2/1
7.Padres -1.5 0.8/1.08
8.angels 1.28/1.34
9.kc-Oak un9 1.62/1.41
10.orioles under4 2.03/1.51
11.tex-Min un8 2.04/1.57
0.5 to win 11.11

10-team IF bet
1.Marlins -1.5 0.5/0.8
2.Jays -1.5 0.6/0.66
3.Padres -1.5 0.66/0.89
4.Nyy -1.5 1.05/1
5.Twins -1.5 1.05/1
6.M's -1.5 0.8/1
7.mets 1.35/1
8.D'Rays 1.2/1.5
9.reds 1.65/1.5
10.Braves -1.5 2/2.1
0.5 to win max.11.45

10-team IF bet
1.Blue Jays -1.5 0.8/0.88
2.Marlins 0.65/0.5
3.Nyy -1.5 0.63/0.6
4.mets-Wash un9 0.75/0.6
5.Padres -1.5 0.8/1.08
6.angels 0.96/0.96
7.kc-A's un9 1.15/1
8.M's -1.5 0.6/0.78
9.Braves -1.5 2/2.1
10.reds 1.65/1.5
0.8 to win max.10.

11-team IF bet
1.Yankees -1.5 0.84/0.8
2.angels 0.6/0.6
3.M's -1.5 0.5/0.65
4.mets-Wash un8 0.84/0.7
5.Marlins -1.5 0.75/1.2
6.Padres 1.2/0.75
7.Jays -1.5 1/1.1
8.clev-Tb un8.5 1.1/1
9.Twins -1.5 1.36/1.3
10.kc-Oak un9 1.5/1.2
11.Cubs -1.5 0.8/1
0.84 to win max.10.3


Pushing my luck a bit, here, but isn't that what luck is for? I'll see if that horseshoe is still jammed in there securely. All these plays are justified as much as I can do so?obviously I need the system picks to rock?they should cover this other mess I've created. I calculate just over a 9% chance to miss both bigguns today, with a 48% chance to hit them both?leaves, I guess, a 43% chance to hit just one (government's wouldn't crumble, or anything, if that were to happen); a 91% chance to recover something.
Once again, I like my chances.

GL

 

[gsp]

There's another factor with Eddings that I'm pretty sure you don't have. It also calls for the under today. I'll probably be on it too. Good luck

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

that 2-teamer with the Yankees-Metrodome under should read under 8.

oops.

don't want to edit my PLAYS post

supersition?

:shrug:

:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

thanks for the words, gentlemen (I am assuming, aren't I?)
------------------------------------------------------------
crap

I got a 10-team IF bet listed (also) with the wrong total...at a 4 spot should read mets-Wash under 8.

am I on cheap drugs or something?

:shrug:

:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:SIB

 

[LetsMakeMoney]

gl today :toast:

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

heads-up

heads-up

thanks all

---------------------------------------------------------

early look at what I'll have for Monday:

system picks will include (for sure):
nationals
Rockies
Twins
yankees

and close (maybe still) will be:
brewers
D'Rays

unders in Toronto and Tampa, both at 9's, look solid

enjoy the rest of the festivities

(sure wish I liked SOMETHING in that night game)
:shrug:

:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:SIB

 

[bjfinste]

That Mets game was not cool. I was on the same play. 2-2 in the 8th... only to get blown up.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

yeah...I thought that under looked pretty strong well into the game

nice call on the Miller Park over, though, bjfinste

:toast:

:weed:
:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

system picks 2-0 today!

:00hour :00hour

that makes 7-0 the past 2 days!!

:00hour :00hour :00hour :00hour :00hour :00hour :00hour

Tonight I celebrate by kicking back and watching the game with absolutely NOTHING at stake.
(I agree with the system call (ie Cubs likely win, but low 60% probability) so no value on the line)

I'll have Monday's board up sometime into the game.
I've already mentioned, earlier in this thread, who I think looks good.

:weed:

 

[RAYMOND]

:00hour :00hour :00hour

 

[spang]

Great job, looks like we were on 3 of the same games today.