Sunday August 5th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Sunday August 5th 2007

yesterday: 8-4 +3.21
August: 19-16 +0.37
ml 8-9 -5.13
rl 3-0 +3.69
totals 4-5 -2.35
parlays 4-2 +4.16
system picks 1-1 yesterday; 3-5 in August (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 2-1 yesterday; 3-7 in August

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Atl 60% (-130)+3
Fla 53 (-133)-5
Pitt 58 (-118)+3
stl 56 (-122)+1
phil 51 (+115)+4
sf 54 (+104)+4
Lad 51 (-123)-5 ariz 49 (+115)+2
mets 57 (+101)+7
Det 65 (-184)even RL 50 (+107)+1
Nyy 71 (-224)+1 RL 58 (-111)+5
Tor 65 (-168)+2 RL 50 (+125)+5
balt 65 (-145)+5 RL 51 (+115)+4
clev 58 (-120)+3
Oak 52 (+100)+2
bost 65 (-137)+7 RL 51 (+121)+5

system totals

hou@Fla ov9.5 67 (-117)+13 --Marsh is a good OVER-ump
stl@Wash un9 66 (-105)+14 --Runge is a slight UNDER-ump
phil@Mil ov9.5 80 (-116)+26 --ump Reilly is even
ariz@Lad un7.5 77 (-128)+20 --Cederstrom is a bit of an over-ump; kills this one
laa@Oak un7.5 75 (-120)+20 --Bucknor is a classic over-ump; kills this one


Wasn't wrong about much yesterday. Just got some bad, late, breaks in a couple of my games. Still managed my second straight winning day, getting me on the plus for August. Went 4-3 on the moneyline, 1-0 runline, 1-1 on totals, bagged a parlay and hit a couple of games on one of my IF plays (other was a push).

Sunday's board doesn't thrill me much. Orioles and Red Sox are system picks, Mets have some value too, I believe. I might try a couple of the totals that have appropriate umpires going (Florida,Washington) and stay far away from those that have inappropriate umpires going (Dodgerland,Oakland).

Will post plays and other shiite as the end draws nearer.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

some possible team totals
(w/relative system number; + for overs, etc.)

astros ov4.5 -120 (+8)'stros prefer lefties and face a struggling one here; ump works
Marlins ov5 -110 (+7)Marlins have only reached 5 runs in 3 of their past 12; Albers threw 5 shutout innings in his last start, July 25th (Lad), but was crap his last 2 go's out of the bullpen (Atl)
reds un4 +100 (-9)OPS 75 points lower vs lefties
Nats un4.5 -125 (-10)maybe not the way the Nats are performing lately
phils ov5 +100 (+14)sweet
Brewers ov5 -110 (+9)sorry Eaton, you're no longer at Petco
Padres un4 -115 (-8)Pads OPS 80 points higher vs lefties but face a fairly hot Lowry
d'backs un3.5 +100 (-14)ump hurts; Penny is cold
Lad un4 -140 (-17)the better choice, I think, but not as good as the moneyline if you want Webb action
Tigers ov6 -115 (+9)Tigers sticks cold but I think that Floyd might be a cure
Yanks ov6 +100 (+13)Yanks have scored 7 or more for 5 straight games
tex un4.5 -150 (-10)McGowan a 1.77 era over his past 3 starts
o's ov4.5 -125 (+10)vs Sonnanstine & D'Rays pen?...extremely likely
D'Rays un4 -140 (-9)Bedard is the hottest AL pitcher going
--runline looks good when considering the above pair
Twins un4 -125 (-9)Twins have scored 4 or less in 11 of their past 12
laa un3.5 -105 (-10)not with Bucknor as ump
Oak un3.5 -105 (-12)same
M's un4 -130 (-12)Beckett has shut down the M's once already this season and I think he'll seriously want a bounceback game, at least that's my impression after watching his tirade in the dugout last game; 3 of their last 5 the M's have scored less than 4 but in the other 2 they scored 8 and 7


That took longer than normal.
This dang computer is getting WAY too slow.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

New car, caviar, four-star daydream...think I'll buy me a football team.

New car, caviar, four-star daydream...think I'll buy me a football team.

PLAYS

system picks

orioles -145 2.9/2
red sox -137 2.74/2

other picks

mets +101 0.75/0.75
Tigers -1.5 +107 1/1.07
Yankees -1.5 -110 1.1/1

totals

cin@Pitt un8.5 -110 0.55/0.5
stl@Wash un9 +101 0.6/0.6
phil@Mil ov9.5 -116 1.16/1

2-teamer (AL Home Feast A)
--Tigers ml
--Yankees ml
+123
0.81/1

2-teamer (AL Home Feast B)
--Tigers ml
--Blue Jays ml
+146
0.68/1

5-teamer (Senior's Special (65+))
--Tigers ml
--Yankees ml
--Blue Jays ml
--orioles ml
--red sox ml
+941
0.53/5

8-team IF bet
1.Blue Jays -1.5 0.6/0.66
2.Yankees -1.5 0.55/0.5
3.phillies over 5 0.64/0.64
4.mets 0.77/0.7
5.red sox -1.5 0.5/0.55
6.orioles -1.5 0.5/0.55
7.indians 1.3/1
8.Tigers over 6 0.8/0.7
0.6 to win max.5.3

9-team IF bet
1.orioles -1.5 0.5/0.55
2.Tigers -1.5 0.52/0.5
3.Brewers over 5 0.55/0.5
4.cin@Pitt un8.5 0.55/0.5
5.Blue Jays 0.9/0.5
6.Yankees -1.5 0.55/0.5
7.mets 0.99/0.9
8.stl@Wash un9 0.84/0.8
9.Braves 0.75/0.6
0.5 to win max.5.35


I really think that the Tigers are going to rack up some runs today?like the game better than the Yankees, actually. Only question is how Tata performs, but I'm expecting Floyd to continue to show that he can't cut it in the Majors; Tigers already toyed with him once this season. I can't believe that the Jays are only like 6 or so games out of the wild card now?hope they keep things rolling with a rather hot McGowan going (only allowed 4 hits per game over his past 3 starts); I can't believe I'm not playing the Jays-Yankees parlay again?it's worked the past 2 days?I'm using the Tigers, here, as the backbone of my parlays. The Pirates game has a decent under-ump in Gorman going, Arroyo should perform okay against his former club, and Gorzelanny is performing better at home than on the road?he also faces a Reds team with an OPS near .700 against lefties and just over .700 on the road?might be a waste after yesterday's high-scoring affair, not to mention that both SP's are coming off of poor outtings. Would love to nail that 5-teamer (jeez?no chit, Mike).

Monday doesn't look so hot. Giants with Lincecum and Tigers with Verlander if we see decent lines (dream, dream, dream, dreaeaeaeam).

That's it from here until tomorrow.
GL

 

[Dr. Whitetail]

GL today!