Sunday Baseball

[katts]

I think I have 3 strong value plays here:

Toronto(Carpenter) +190
Tor/NYY UNDER 8.5 -120
Detroit(Weaver) +175

All for 1.5 unit. I might write some comments later on.

I also like the following:

Kansas(Suppan) +160
NYM/Phi U8.0 -115

No play on those for now though.


[This message has been edited by katts (edited 07-22-2001).]

 

[katts]

Final answer: pass on KC, 1 unit on NYM/Phi U8 -115

Update from earlier this week:

MLB record 18-16 +3.23
UR: 32.0
NR: +0.101
------------------------
Sides: 11-12 +0.78
Totals 7-4 +2.45

 

[katts]

Just wanted to update my record after such a wonderful day:

MLB record 19-19 -0.57
UR: 37.5
NR: -0.015
------------------------
Sides: 11-14 -2.22
Totals 8-5 +1.65

I really don't think anyone will care about it judging by the many replies, but still, I'll say it: I'm done with baseball for this year. Like I said at the beginning, "if things don't go well enough, I'll quit as fast as I started". I just don't enjoy capping this game. I have to put about 2X to 3X the amount of time I spend when capping hockey to end up with a very ordinary record. Can't remember exactly how many 1.5 uniter I posted here so far, but the one thing I know is that none of them hit. Simply amazing. Just seems like I can't figure out where the "true" value plays are in baseball. 2nd year out of 3 I end up with a basically ZERO profit record in bases. The other year was sub-zero. Can't take it anymore.

One really important thing you have to consider when capping baseball - IMHO: it's not Team A vs Team B, it's Pitcher A vs Player B1, Pitcher A vs Player B2 and so on... You all know it, 95% of the game is batter vs pitcher. Basically it's the sum of all those 1-on-1 scenarios you need to consider to end up with the correct odds. For that it takes a lot of time and / or a very good knowledge of the sport itself and the latest news and / or a pretty good software (including a detailed database). I have none of that for now. Maybe I'll try to build a little software for next year but right now I just don't have the stimulation to do it. I have a couple of ridiculous baseball softwares here that I made when I started to write some code a couple of years ago, but really, they're all full of crap and I'm gonna throw the whole stuff in the garbage (the e-garbage of course).

For those who know me, see you in October in the Penalty Box. For the rest, just wanted to say that I'm sorry if I couldn't contribute to this *!*!*! baseball forum (just a bit pissed off).

 

[Doctor Baseball]

Hey Katts maybe you will not read this but who cares?

All I heard on my book around march was people talking about how easy the baseball is "no pointspread just pick the winner" "go all the way with texas and over", just bullshit. I cant believe it, im a over lover player, just few times play the under. Want to hear about my last 2 under plays? (im not kidding is true).
Atlanta vs Boston Under 9:
9th inning 3-3 atlanta score 2 runs, no problem i still can accept two, boston bottom of the 9th, 2 outs and .........yes a homer, big deal I got a push,right? no fuc*** way manny 0-2 and yes...... a homer.

Baltimore vs Anaheim under 9
(let my tell you my other 4 plays oak over 9.5, cards, san diego and cubs)
Top of the 9, 4-2 anaheim scores 1 run.
Bot of the 9, 5-2 and the great Percival on the mound, you should now the story, the great baltimore batters score 3 runs with 1 out and tied the game.

So im with you baseball sucks, but i guess that tomorrow i would be betting no matter i lost. Yes call me a compulsive gambler.