Re-Cap and Ramble
Re-Cap and Ramble
1. Hawks 3 - 2 over Calgary [W 2 units]
2. Dallas 1 - ANA 4 [Lost 3.45 units] - what a stinky effort from a team trying to make the last play-off spot. ANA has owned the STARS this year...
3. Vancouver 4-3 over Phoenix [W 1 unit]
4. Vancouver Over 5 [Won 1 unit]
3-1 for the night for only +.55 units...but it is better than negative units...
I was having trouble with my password yesterday, so I did not get it posted, but I noticed on SAT that HOME TEAMS were 6-1-1 vs. VISITORS. One of my theories in the NHL is the "pendulum" or "bounce-back" theory, which has proven profitable this year. [Overall major trends, I guess, is what I am referring to, which always come back to the middle or norm]
So Sunday I played [at Olympic] the prop of VISITORS +4 goals - based on the fact that home teams were not likely to be as successful on Sunday. I have made this bet maybe 7 times this year, and lost only one time. I think it may - stress MAY - be a bit easier to pick than the grand salami. However, if I see a day when the Salami goes WAY OVER or WAY UNDER, I give the opposite play a very close look the next day.
According to 1 source I use, here are some overall stats to date for the NHL this year:
HOME TEAMS: Won 581 - Lost 457 - Tied 140 vs. Visitors That is a significant advantage to HOMERS
FAVORITES: Won 610 and DOGS: Won 568 [very close]
GOALS: 6166 scored for GPG of 5.23 - can you say Under 6 or Over 4.5 ??
OVERS 492 and UNDERS 686 [58%] - why not play UNDER on every game??? Cause of the juice...
Of course, nothing take the place of good handicapping of each game, but understanding these overall trends may make the difference in a particular bet. Good example was the game of Edmonton at ANA on Friday. I went against the trend and took ANA, based mostly on the HOME TEAM factor.
Frdiay was also a day which went WAY UNDER the total for the grand salami - 30 goal in 7 games, and then Saturday the Over hit easily...49 goals in 8 games...
Lets get more WINNERS this week...
Other theories welcome....
