Sunday July 8th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Sunday July 8th 2007

yesterday: 4-4 -0.49
July: 42-36 +5.42
ml 24-18 +6.55
rl 2-2 +0.96
totals 13-14 -3.5
parlays 3-2 +1.41
system picks 1-0 yesterday; 9-0 the past 4 days (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 2-3 yesterday; 12-11 in July

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Cin 63% (-149)+3
mil 62 (-153)+1
cubs 67 (-164)+4 RL 53 (-101)+2
Hou 67 (-164)+4 RL 52 (+128)+8
sf 56 (-111)+3
Col 55 (-134)-3
Lad 53 (-134)-5
Sd 56 (-139)-3
Nyy 60 (-184)-5
bost 66 (-134)+8 RL 51 (+121)+5
clev 58 (-120)+3
Cws 65 (-117)+11
tb 62 (-124)+6
Tex 61 (-111)+8
Oak 70 (-174)+6 RL 55 (+122)+9

system totals

phil@Col ov10.5 77% (-110)+24 --B.Welke is an under-ump; pass here
bost@Det un9.5 71 (-101)+21 --Wolf is a good under-ump, including 12-4 this year with a very high K%
clev@Tor ov10.5 67 (-105)+15 --ump Dreckman is even


Nice looking board for us, just before the break.
Looks like some value all over the place, as long as you agree with my numbers.
I'll be putting some faith in them (already have).
System sides had an ordinary day, going 8-7 (Yanks and Brewers shoulda coulda woulda).
Still calling at over 60% for July, including all games.
Just need totals to rock again; I'll try Matsuzaka to shut down the Tigers (under) and maybe grab that clev-Tor over also.
Under-CREW going in Colorado, so pass there.

Be posting picks before p.m.
GL

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

This under-line in Detroit moved big in my favour before I could play it.

Now +108 (Hoppy)

I'm not sure I understand the movement.
Teams couldn't produce last game.
Ump is favorable (for the under).
Matsuzaka is a monster right now.
Question is Robertson, for the under.
And bullpens may be taxed...I think Dice-K can complete this one.

I'm an under and Sox player here.

:SIB

 

[wlmackey]

when the sides have been doing so well, why are you so excited about the under?

Which sox's do you like best.....Red or White?

Good luck and keep up the good work!

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

red sox 66%
White Sox 65%

slightly red but lines kinda balance it out

Chisox have the :scared factor as well

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

will try to talk myself out of a parlay, here...

cubs 67%
Astros 67%
-----------------------
a 45% (roughly) chance to hit

silly parlay 45% (+152)+5 V.I. ... wow...

45 x 1.52 = 68.4
55 x -1.....= -55
---------------------------
..................13.4%

Could be worse.

System picks are better as there's no 55% chance of failure on the singles.

one more...

bosox 66%
Chisox 65%
A's 70%
---------------------
a 30% chance to hit

silly parlay AL 30% (+394)+9 V.I.

30 x 3.94 = 118.2
70 x -1.....= -70
------------------------------
...................48.2%

Wow. That one rocks.

All 3 calls may be kinda high...I dunno.
I like all 3 today...quite a bit.
Really nice lines for Bosox and Chisox, too.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

just to test out a theory...

silly parlay #3...Big NL

Reds 63%
brewers 62%
cubs 67%
Astros 67%
---------------------
an 18% chance (almost) to hit

Big NL 18% (+574)+3 V.I.

18 x 5.74 = 103.32
82 x -1.....= -82
-------------------------------
..................21.32%

Kinda figured...any doggy lines are producing high ROI's.
High ROI isn't everything, as I'd have an 82% chance of failure here.

------------------------------------------------------------------
ROI of a system pick
--------------------------------------------------------------------
use highest call...A's 70%

A's 70% (-174)+6 V.I.

-174 is 57.5 cents otd
70 x 0.575 = 40.25
30 x -1.......= -30
---------------------------------
....................10.25%

What would you rather have?
Double the ROI and an 82% chance of failure?

I'd be smart to stick to my straights.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

some team totals my system likes

some team totals my system likes

(relative #, minus for unders etc)

Pirates under 3.5 -115 (-17)
Nats under 4 -130 (-12)
Astros over 5 -120 (+10)
phillies over 5 -125 (+10)
Rockies over 5.5 -105 (+11)
bosox over 5 -105 (+6)
Tigers under 4.5 -135 (-12) I kinda like this one
indians over 5.5 -105 (+12)
twins under 4.5 -105 (-14)
Royals under 4.5 -105 (-9)
Rangers over 5 -110 (+8)
mariners under 4 -105 (-15) Like this one, too.


Will give them some thought. Already have action at Detroit and Oakland. No gaurantees my starter's dominate.
'specially Oswalt (got a piece)...he hasn't been very Oswaltian lately, has he?
Astros bats should mash Williams. He'll need the pen sooner than Roy, and both pens should be a bit taxed...still...last game before a few days off so probably more bodies available than under normal circumstances.
Not the best play because of the price.
High probability is the attraction.
Hope so.

-164 is 61 cents otd
67 x 0.61 = 40.87
33 x -1.....= -33
-------------------------------
..................7.87%

Makes sense. Not a system pick, afterall.
Close.

Go 'stros!

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I may find peace within the emptiness. How pitiful. It's Calling Me!

I may find peace within the emptiness. How pitiful. It's Calling Me!

PLAYS

system picks

red sox -134 4.02/3
White Sox -117 2.92/2.5
Rangers -111 1.33/1.2
A's -174 4.35/2.5

other picks

cubs -164 3.28/2
Astros -164 3.28/2
d'rays -124 2/1.61

totals

bost@Det un9.5 +108 1/1.08


I think I'll stop there. I'm happy with what I've got and don't want to mess with a (hopefully) good thing. Big juice in 3 spots; need at least 2 of 3 of A's, cubs and Astros. I sort of like the Jays game over but I'm passing.

Enjoy the break!
My lean for the All-Star game is on the N.L.
It will be fun to watch but not to bet on.

May do a post to update stats or something.
Especially if they kick butt today; July is worth bragging about, so far.
?so far?

?to be continued?
GL

:SIB

 

[Hooks]

Thanks X,hooks