Sunday June 17th - Happy Father's Day!

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Sunday June 17th 2007

yesterday: 9-4 +3.13
June: 106-106 -12.80
ml 46-37 -8.47
rl 9-11 -7.84
totals 43-29 +18.29
parlays 8-29 -14.78

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

sd 51% (+112)+3
Clev 64 (-187)-2
Tor 62 (-160)even
Cin 63 (-151)+2
ariz 62 (-138)+4
Pitt 54 (+116)+7
det 66 (-135)+8 RL 52 (+120)+6
Hou 64 (-150)+4
Bost 51 (-170)-12 sf 49 (+168)+11
Kc 53 (-112)even
Min 56 (-132)-1
tb 58 (+108)+9
Oak 63 (-164)even
laa 63 (-127)+7
Nyy 63 (-177)-1

system totals

wash@Tor ov10 66% (-110)+13 --ump Rapuano is even
sf@Bost un10 71 (-125)+15 --Gibson is a slight over-ump
fla@Kc un9.5 64 (-105)+12 --Miller is a bit of an under-ump
stl@Oak un9.5 73 (+100)+23 --ump Tichenor n/a
laa@Lad un8 71 (+102)+21 --Schrieber is a bit of an over-ump


Figured I would get this up as early as possible. Happy Father's Day to any Pop's out there.
Thanks for the kind words yesterday. I'll turn this thing around yet.

Yesterday was acceptable, the way things have been going for me. I went 4-1 on the moneyline, 1-1 on the runline, and 4-1 on totals. Needed the Tigers to win to have a stellar day; woulda been another 6 units, anyways. I'm now at the point where, if you take away my parlay wastes, I'm even for the month. Would love to actually pull off 2 plusses in a row and I think I can with Sunday's board.

System sides 8-6 for Saturday. At least that's over .500. Only 1 for 2 on 70's.
System totals 7-3 yesterday; a beautiful 44-21 in June.

As for today's board, I'm already on the D'Backs, Tigers, Astros and Angels. I would have prefered the D'Backs facing a righty here, as originally scheduled, but Webby is deadly right now and I feel he's definitely worth a shot versus the pathetic Orioles. Tigers should bounce back, here, methinks; trying 'em anyway; quite a starters mismatch; both bullpens are pretty bad so beware the under. Astros have some momentum now, in their current series with the M's, and get the luxury of both starting their ace AND facing a lefty (OPS vs L .771 while vs R it's only .698); Washburn not as strong as he was to start the season. Escobar has really found himself this season and I'll back him and the Halos here to take this series; Wolf, like Washburn, not as strong lately as earlier in the season; Angels OPS vs L .782 while Dodgers OPS vs R is .695.

Still looking at totals.

Will post plays once finalized.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I'm trying to find at least a total or two worth playing; they've been my only strong spot for June.

I'm having trouble...

2 of the system calls are really nullified by umpire info; in Boston and at Lad.

That leaves me 3.

Nat's don't score tons, but should get something off of Towers; I'm still not sold that the Jays can perform long relief roles, either, and Towers may last 6. Jays facing a lefty is a break for the over. In fact, Jays over 5.5 +120 is about as tempting as the over 10 at -110.

No way I'm playing stl@Oak under; not the way the series is going.

Most tempting, I guess, is fla@Kc under 9.5
I just don't like the -115 you have to pay.
After all, these clubs just scored tons yesterday.
I just think that Olsen may have changed his mechanics or something before his last start, and now he might perform well for a few. Pass on the Fish line as Bannister has been great his past 3 starts; another reason that I think this one could stay under.
Ump doesn't hurt; Miller helps, if anything.
Marlins OPS vs R .740 (as opposed to .821 vs L)
Royals OPS vs L .698 (they're only .721 vs R)
Royals OPS at home only .738, and they play in quite a good hitter's park, too.
Ballpark is a reason AGAINST the under, but I think the starters here might keep things LOW.
Bullpens may not help...not the best, here.

I may not play any totals, today.
Gonna look at a few more team totals.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

some team totals I'm conisdering

some team totals I'm conisdering

First of all...I've 'capped Monday's games.
Boy am I excited about the possibilities; can't wait to see the lines.
I've 'capped 7 of the 10 games at over 60% probs.
A possible 3 games at 70+, with another at 69%.
One tip, for now: grab a piece of Gallardo in the Brewers game vs the Giants; G-Men really aren't hitting these days and now have to face the Brewers top pitching prospect for his MLdebut; guy sounds like he could be a keeper; Lowry not so hot, these days, and Brewers have punished him before. I'm hoping for a -150 or better, but will probably play the Brewers up to -160 or -165.
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team totals
(with relative system numbers...minus for unders etc)

Indians over 5.5 +105 (+10)
Jays over 5.5 +120 (+8)
Reds over 5.5 -105 (+9)
tigers over 5 -110 (+9)
Phillies under 4.5 -125 (-7)
Orioles under 4 -140 (-14)
Dodgers under 4 -145 (-17)


Dodgers have the biggest number, at -17.
Angels moneyline appears to be the better play, at -127 over the -145 for Lad under.

Indians have the highest plus for an over-call.
Probably about equivalent to a runline play.
Same for Jays over.
Reds runline might be better, again.
Forget the Tigers; I've got them on the moneyline; Eaton has been sharper lately, too.
Phillies under is tempting...4.5...can Verlander stay super-sharp?...He's been damn fine, even before the No-No.
Orioles under for the same reason; again, I'm well into the moneyline, here, so I'll be hoping for zeroes from the O's anyways. Why pay -140 for an under when the moneyline is a bit cheaper.

Doesn't look like I should be on any of these.
Totals may totally pass me by, today.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

yes, Dad, I'm going to get some sleep (won't need much)

yes, Dad, I'm going to get some sleep (won't need much)

HAPPY FATHER'S DAY!!!
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-----------------------------------
PLAYS

d'backs -138 4.14/3
tigers -132 4.62/3.5
Astros -150 4.12/2.75
d'rays +108 1/1.08
angels -127 4.44/3.5


That's all I'm going to try today. I'd like 3 of 4 of my big ones?that would make for a good day. Anything less than 2 of them and I sink further. D'Rays also with a shot to end the Rockies current winning streak; Kazmir worth a shot here, for this price.

Happy Father's Day, Dad!

GL all

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

just for a laugh

just for a laugh

I haven't posted this for a while; guess why.

updated system ststistics
--------------------------------------
RESULTS (W-L)

???.?full?..April??..May??.June??July???August?..Sept?..October
Total?..452-335..203-165...249-170?107-107
51??...31-28?.17-15??14-13??7-10
52??...28-23?.13-13??15-10??9-7
53??...31-26?.16-16??15-10??7-7
54??...28-24?..14-8?...14-16??6-10
55??...24-26?..9-12??.15-14??9-8
56??...29-16..?17-4??.12-12??2-10
57??...28-17?...8-6??..20-11??6-2
58??...19-16?...8-11??11-5??..10-5
59??...26-20?..11-11....15-9??..6-2
60??...23-21..?12-9??.11-12??3-5
61??...26-16?..10-8??.16-8??..5-3
62??...20-18?..10-8??.10-10??3-6
63??...25-17?..13-9??.12-8??..4-7
64??...18-16?..7-10??.11-6??..5-4
65??...20-13?..10-4??.10-9??..6-3
66??...19-10?...9-5??..10-5??..3-4
67??...13-8?.....6-2??..7-6???2-2
68??...10-5?.....5-4??..5-1???2-1
69??...4-4??...1-2??..3-2???1-2
70??...5-3??...2-2??..3-1???3-3
71??...6-2??...1-2??..5-0???2-2
72??...5-2??...1-1??..4-1???
73??...5-1??...1-1??..4-0???1-0
74??...5-1??...2-1??..3-0???
75??...1-2??...0-1??..1-1???1-1
76??...1-0??...0-0??..1-0???
77??...0-0??...0-0??..0-0???2-0
78??...1-0??...0-0??..1-0???1-1
79??...0-0???0-0??..0-0??...0-1
80??...1-0???0-0??..1-0??...1-1
totals?..106-94?..45-53?..61-41?...44-21
(posted system totals)

MADJACK'S POSTINGS
overall W-L302-255..122-111..180-144?
overall +/-.+47.19??-4.21?.+51.40?..
ml W-L?.186-111?.80-45?..106-66?.
ml +/-??+49.94?.+12.54?..+37.40?..
rl W-L??.19-21??..9-10?..10-11??
rl +/-??..-2.77??.-1.8??..-0.97??..
totals W-L...70-61?..25-22?..45-39??
totals +/-?.-1.05?...-5.2??..+4.15??..
parlays W-L..27-62??8-34?..19-28?...
parlays +/-?+1.07?...-9.75?..+10.82?.
system picks..82-43?..30-20?..52-23?.



Numbers need to improve this month,
and in a hurry.

:SIB

 

[MoeshY-13-]

Let's cash the Tigers X! GL today!

 

[LIGHT-IT-UP]

Good luck X, let's cash these in today!!!

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

One tip, for now: grab a piece of Gallardo in the Brewers game vs the Giants; G-Men really aren't hitting these days and now have to face the Brewers top pitching prospect for his MLdebut; guy sounds like he could be a keeper; Lowry not so hot, these days, and Brewers have punished him before. I'm hoping for a -150 or better, but will probably play the Brewers up to -160 or -165.
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I have been wrong before and might be again, but I would be shocked if the brewers were more than -135. No chance it goes near 160 with a rookie against a decent leftie. Like I said, been wrong before but don't think you will be laying anywhere near -150. Sorry if I'm wrong

gl

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

pinny opened at -128 if you care. I have no opinion on the game, but if you like it the price is there for you.



gl

 

[brooksie]

Pretty amazing day Ex - you obviously put a lot of time and effort into your handicapping. It's fun to see you rewarded with a 5-0 sweep. Well done.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

you're kidding me...

you're kidding me...

thanks a lot, brooksie, and...

YEAH, BABY!!!

I finally checked today's scores, at about 9:30 pm eastern, after spending the day with my father.

I was confident about the plays, but hesitant as I've been getting thrashed lately.

Sweet to finally get rewarded.

I should learn something from this for the future, and maybe try and limit my selections.

5-0 makes my freakin' day...I'll tell you that.

As for my Brewers plans...they're in full swing; I like the Brew-Crew to take down the Giants tomorrow.

I'll have Monday's (very attractive) numbers up within the hour, I would think.

Rock n Freakin' Roll, BABY!!!

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