Sunday June 3rd

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Sunday June 3rd 2007

yesterday: 9-5 +4.41
June: 16-11 -1.73
ml 7-5 -5.21
rl 1-0 +0.75
totals 8-3 +5.03
parlays 0-3 -2.3
system picks 1-0 yesterday, now 84-45 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 4-1 yesterday; 6-2 to start off June

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Mets 71% (-148)+11 RL 56 (+145)+15
lad 58 (-119)+3
sf 51 (+110)+3
sd 61 (-122)+6
Mil 59 (-145)-1
Hou 54 (-127)-2
Cubs 59 (-136)+1
Col 59 (-139)even
Tor 65 (-128)+8
det 64 (+105)+15
Tb 53 (-145)-7 kc 47 (+138)+4
Laa 51 (-137)-7 balt 49 (+129)+5
Oak 53 (+131)+9
Seat 52 (-130)-5 tex 48 (+125)+3
Bost 58 (-130)+1

system totals

ariz@Mets un8 75% (+105)+26 --ump N/A if Dellinger; if Nelson, he's a solid under-ump
lad@Pitt un7.5 64 (-110)+11 --Welke is an excellent under-ump
sf@Phil un9.5 68 (-115)+14 --ump Culbreth is even
cin@Col ov10 70 (-115)+16 --ump Dreckman is even
min@Oak un7.5 72 (-125)+16 --Muchlinski is an excellent under-ump
nyy@Bost un10 67 (-120)+12 --ump Guccione is even


Yesterday's relaxing card was much better than Friday's. Still going to take me a while to get my June moneyline numbers into the positive, the was Friday went. Went 6-3 on totals yesterday.

I've already got some action on today's board.
Looking into some more.

Be back to post picks later.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Tigers OPS vs L .855.
Indians OPS vs R .813.

Edge to Tigers bats; doesn't hurt the way yesterday's game went, either (good production for the second straight game at Jacob's).

I currently have Bonderman rated at an 85, as he's coming off of 2 great starts.
Granted, he is only 6-9 with a 6.29 era vs the Indians.
(5-5, 5.34 at Jacob's Field).

Sowers I currently have rated at a 73; he's been as high as 80 this season and as low as 71.
He faced the Tigers once, last season, and got the W, pitching 6 decent innings (2 ER).
0-1 with a 4.74 era at home in 3 starts.

Clear edge to the Tigers starter here.

Bullpen edge has to go to the Indians, as the Tigers staff is depleted right now, and those they have left aren't really performing.

Bonderman may need to survive 7, here, to give the Tigers a good chance.
He threw 103 5 days ago; if he's got some decent stuff then no problem.

I can't make sense of the line.

At +105 you can call me hoppy.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

(J) Santana is 3-0 with a 2.65 era at McAfee Col.

Twins OPS vs R at .768.

A's OPS vs L at .773 (only .707 vs R).

I still think that the Twins are suffering with Mauer out.
Redmond hitting .316 but without the same power.
Not sure how it's affecting pitcher's, as the Twins have chucked some good games lately.

Got Gaudin rated at an 84 (the highest I've had him at this season).
Currently Santana sits at an 86.

Both bullpens have their strengths and weakness; small edge Twinkies pen.
(both should be fresh, here)

I sort of agree with the system call, A's at 53%, but can't seem to pull the trigger on this one.

I think I'll stick with the UNDER.
Ump Muchlinski helps, in this one.
7.5 doesn't seem that low considering how yesterday's game went.

:SIB

 

[MoeshY-13-]

Gl today X!

 

[bjfinste]

sf@Phil un9.5 68 (-115)+14 --ump Culbreth is even

You probably know this, but just for a little extra fuel for this one in case you don't, all six of Garcia's career starts with Culbreth have gone under, with the opposing team tallying 3-1-4-3-2-3 runs in those games (for the total game... not necessarily off Garcia). Only caveat is that two are from 2005 and the other four are from 2002 or before.

Definitely on board with the Pirates and Twins unders. Both look very strong.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I didn't know about the Garcia-Culbreth connection, there.

Thanks for pointing it out, bjfinste.

I'm hoping that Garcia will have a decent game (not TOO decent...got a small Giants play).
He's bordered between mediocre and solid this year.

Lincecum looks great; I think that first start, with some trouble against these same Phillies, was the abberation on his record.

Looking for a similar struggle as yesterday between these two teams.

I'm not sure about Bonds status for this one; a day game following a night game and he often sits; would help the under play, a lot, but not my Giants ML.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I am a traveller of both time and space, to be where I have been

I am a traveller of both time and space, to be where I have been

PLAYS

system picks

Mets -148 5.92/4
Blue Jays -128 2.56/2
tigers +105 5/5.25

other picks

dodgers -119 1.78/1.5
giants +115 0.8/0.92
padres -122 1.22/1

totals

ariz@Mets un8 +116 0.8/0.93
lad@Pitt un7.5 -109 1.09/1
sf@Phil un9.5 -115 1.15/1
kc@Tb ov10.5 -101 0.75/0.75
min@Oak un7.5 -123 2.46/2
tex@Seat ov10 +105 0.73/0.77
nyy@Bost un10 -114 2.28/2

3-teamer (system sweeper)
--Mets ml
--Blue Jays ml
--tigers ml
+510
0.58/3

2-teamer (best bets)
--Mets ml
--tigers ml
+242
1/2.42


Should be an interesting day; I really need to bag this 71%'er (Mets) or 70+ will fall to 0-3 for June. Tigers and Jays look promising, too, as both the posted numbers (64% and 65% respectively) are on the CONSERVATIVE side, if anything (I actually dropped the original numbers a few points as first results were kind of high?i.e. lopsided); the system really likes these 3 games. A little value with Dodgers, Giants & Padres, and I'm hoping to hit (at least) 2 of 3 there.

System totals have really started to come on strong, for the most part in May (61-41) and now starting off June strong (6-2). I'm starting to have a little more faith in them, as demonstrated by my plays. Went 6-3 on totals yesterday, so at least a 4-3 is expected today?I've got a few played larger than others?could sure use them (night game could be a major mistake).

I've got to get off the schneid on parlays for June?will be thrilled if at least the 2-teamer hits?should mean a plus day for me, having both played as heavy straights.

"Heavy straights"?...sounds like a rock n' roll band?

?wait a minute?

I'm in Dire need of an editor.

See you tomorrow.

:SIB

 

[BadAngel]

EX good job Sat and GL today

 

[RAYMOND]

gl today

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Tough break on that Mets game.
Mets have been eating up lefthanders all season but Davis really had the goods today.

I'm glad, at least, that the Twinkies-A's game managed to stay under 7.5 (was 4-0 after 3!).
Gives me a chance for a solid plus, today, if the night game stays under.

Otherwise I'm about even.

I'll take that after missing a key 5-unit play.

Tigers really saved my day.

:SIB

I haven't even 'capped Monday, yet.

Gonna get on it...might have it up in a few hours.

(system sides 11-3 so far today, with the Bosox at 58%)
(system totals 3-2 so far, with an under 10 call (67%) for the night game)

 

[spartan]

Dude you rock :00hour :canada1 keep up the great work

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thanks a lot, spartan.

Jeez...I'm just updating Saturday's system stats right now; I didn't realize it, but system sides actually went 12-3 Saturday.

June 1st was a 5-10, so it's good to see the system back to picking winners again.
(23-6 past 2 days).