Sunday Money

[Spock]

Yesterday was even day if I include the bet I won in the Senegal draw. Lets see how things go today.

I have day off today so will post some of the reasonings today behind my plays.


1. Florida ML *L*

Have been following this series and Detroit continues its awful performance on the road. Seems they are strong in first game and just go away in the other games. Detroit bull pen has been very shaky at best and Florida has been playing really good the last few games (I think they have won their last 5 overall).


Last 10 games Detroit is 3-7 while Florida has been 7-3.
Florida home record is 21-14 while Detroit road record is a woeful 9-28.

Main point i see in this game is the will and ability of Florida to come from behind and win games.

Coming to the pitchers both pitchers are right handed. Detroit is batting 0.254 while Florida is batting 0.271 against right handed pitchers. Last 10 games Detroit is batting 0.236 while Florida has increased its average to 0.293 Florida is swinging the bat much better.

Weaver is 3-3 on the road while Dempster has been pitching well at home sporting a 3-1 record. Only point of concern is that Dempsters ERA in last 3 starts has been high but i thing he will pitch much better at home.

A couple of other things to take into consideration but going with Florida here.

Cheers !!!
Spock

 

[Spock]

2. Oakland Under 8 *W*

The Under has been good play with both teams.
Oakland is 7-1-1 Under in last 9.

Joe West who is the umpire behind HP is 8-1 Under/Over this year.

Mulder is 8-3 Under/Over in his last 11.
Last 3 games Mulder is 3-0 Under.

Reitsma is 7-5 Under/Over in last 12.
Reitsma is 1-2 Under/Over

The Under is 6-2 in Cin. last 8 overall.

In last 10 games Cin is batting a paltry 0.175 against left handed pitchers.

In last 10 games Oak is batting 0.274 against right handed pitchers.

When wind is calm and betn 1-10 MPH Under/Over is 8-5

A few other pointers but I think final score will be something like 4-1 for Oakland.

Good luck
Spock

 

[Spock]

3. Philadelphia Under 9 *W*


The Under is 6-0-1 in Philadelphia's last 7
The Under is 7-2-1 in last 10 of Philly.

The Under is 5-0 in Minny last 5
The Under is 7-3 in last 10 of Minny.

Both Pitchers are left handed .
Minny is batting 0.239 against left handed pitchers
Phil is batting 0.256 against left handed pitchers

In last 10 games :
Minny is batting 0.185 against left handed pitchers
Phil is batting 0.213 against left handed pitchers

The wind is blowing at 6 Mph.
The Under is 14-6 when wind is blowing betn 0-10 Mph

The Under is 7-0-1 in Wolf's last 8 starts.
In his last 12 the Under is 8-4

Sanata is 2-1 Under/Over in last 3

I dont have info on the umpire.

In the first two meetings of the series both games have gone Under convincingly.

Santana's only game on the road he had pitched really well.

I think final score will be around 2-1 or 3-2

Cheers !!!
Spock

 

[Spock]

Taken a small parlay :

1. Atlanta *W*
2. Oakland *W*
3. Seattle *W*

Actually all 3 plays are good plays as individual plays but bcoz my bets are small would much rather take a shot at parlaying them.

Best bet would be Oakland.

Cheers !!!
Spock

 

[Spock]

4. Tampa Bay/Colorado Under 11.5 *W*

Had played this game yesterday. After 4 scoreless innings both teams managed to put up 11 runs. Amazing. The first game of the series should also have gone under but Tampa Bay allowed Colorado to come back in that game also and game up 7 runs in the ninth i think.

Both pitchers have been hit hard and the first thought would me the Over for me. But I think there is good value in the Under.

Also I think Colorado may win this outright and I think Colorado will not bat in the last inning. This eliminates 3 at bats (if this indeed happens).

Yesterday there were 3 back to back homers. Dont see that often.

The good thing I see here is the HP umpire Marquez Alfonzo
In 2002 the Under is 10-5


Some of the stats from prev years for the HP Umpire

I think in 2001 the Under was 16-17 if i am not mistaken
In 2000 th Under was 14-19-1
In 1999 the Under was 4-2-1
In 1997 the Under was 9-5

Wind is blowing at 6mph
The Under is 11-11 when wind blows betn 6-10 mph.

I had this play in mind but ndnfan also has it as one of his plays.
I dont know his reasoning but look for him to bounce back today.
We have all plays the same I think + a couple more.

Cheers and good luck
Spock

# These will be all the plays for today. Am cutting down on number of plays I make as I said in my thread before and try to pick plays with good value only.

# Boston has burned me last few days and I will just pass on them and see them play horrible defence to lose to LA again

 

[jderrida]

SPOCK:

I was looking @ that PHILLY/MIN total, but two things concern me:

1) the UMP-- no real data to go on
2) the wind--out to Left mildly with low humidity

With that being said, I am still leaning UND, but I don't bet totals when I don't know the UMP and I usually like no wind or wind blowing in.

Also, what do you think about the BAL/SF total?

UMP: TSCHIDA 10-4 over ump with the wind blowing out strong to moderately to the left?

GL,
JD

 

[Spock]

jderrida .. thanx for ur views.l

looking at SF game right now. Had the under on them yesterday but small.

Regarding Philly game I also dont like it when no data is available on the HP Umpire. But I also pay attention to the pitchers and the batting percentages of both teams. Both teams are struggling to put up numbers and runs offensively. I think this game is gonna go in extra innings and end with like 3-5 runs scored.

Will be back with the SF views

Cheers !!!
Spock

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

good luck today

 

[Spock]

jedirrida:

Baltimore is 8-1-1 Under in last 10
SF is 5-3-2 Under in last 10

Last 10 games Bal is batting 0.198 against Right Handed pitchers.
Last 10 games SF is batting much better 0.316 against right handed pitchers.

When winds are betn 0-15 mph the Under is 5-2

Hernandez is 8-5 Over but looking at the percentages it will be hard for Bal to hammer him.

Johnson is 2-4 Under.

I would pass on this one as I think there are much better plays out there. But if i had to go with one I would go with the Under.


Look at the Under in the Atlanta game.

Cheers !!!
Spock

 

[jderrida]

SPOCK:

Thanks for the reply on the BAL/SF game, I agree with you as a pass. I will look @ the UND in ATL, but I think if it goes UND, the WSX are going to win as Wright will have to pitch very long into the game and Marquis must not give up 5+ runs, but the wind and the ump make this play tempting...

Regards,
JD

 

[loophole]

about kevin kelley

about kevin kelley

although not much published info out there on him, he appears to be a decent under ump. he was called up from triple a last year and called a couple of games behind the plate. while two games is a pretty small sample, he was 1-1 o/u; however he posted a whopping 4.71 k/bb ratio with 16.5 k/g and only 3.5 bb/g. this included starters tony armas and curt schilling who were obviously pretty strong last year, but the opposing pitchers were herndon and mlicki, who both had substandard years by my recollection (which is sometimes shaky).

 

[Spock]

thanx on the info loophole ..

Cheers !!!
Spock

 

[ndnfan]

Good Luck today Spock!


On that Ump in Philly....loophole pretty much hit it right on the nose. He's a triple A Ump that will occasionally fill in at the Majors. Agree with him looks like an Under Ump and a lot of times you'll see with the younger Umps or rookie Umps that they tend to have the larger strikezones than the Umps that have been a around a while. should really help with these 2 pitchers today.

 

[Spock]

thanx ndn ..

what do u think about the under in the atlanta game.

with the offensive outburst yesterday I am sure there will be a conscious effort from white sox pitchers to pitch well. Atlanta pitching will be usual. Good thing is White Sox not playing well offensively..

Cheers !!!
Spock

 

[ndnfan]

Spock

The Under in Atlanta scares me a bit, just looks like the total's about right on to me. Actually I eliminated that game fairly quickly just for the plain fact of the inconsistency in everything. The pitchers are ?? and the Home plate Ump Wendelstedt has to be one of the more inconsistent Umps in how he's calling a game. Seen him Ump several games and it just seems like the hitters and or pitchers are never happy how he's calling the balls and strikes. Definately no real opinion on that one.

 

[Spock]

thanx .. not seen the UMP so am at disadvantage there .. but been following the Braves game mostly among all games from US teams bcoz I get TBS Superstation at home and so can watch only Braves other than Blue Jays.

and everytime they have a huge offensive night next time they come out w/o same offense .. hope the trend continues :shrug:

Cheers !!!
Spock ..

# regarding the 8.5 at +100 defi agree

 

[Spock]

have added Atlanta Under 8.5 *L*


Just could not catch a break here .. damn errors .. and ridiculous pitching by CWS ..

Good luck
Spock

 

[Spock]

white sox pitcher looks really horrible .. man .. hope braves dont reach 40 runs in this game if he pitches 9 innings

Now need a miracle for final score to be Atl 7 CWS 0

 

[Spock]

this valentine guy of CWS is the most laziest guy i have ever seen play .. 2 errors in 2 innings .. already cost 2 runs .. :nono: :shrug:

 

[Spock]

Adding small play :

Toronto/Arizona Under 8.5 -110 *L*


Observation: Damn Arizona hits the best pitcher. Toronto has got into its groove and hitting ball well .. they are very streaky so best way is to go Over or with them for next few games.:shrug:

Arizona last 4 have gone under. Toronto I think last 8 have gone under.

umpire is 6-6 Over Under but I think Halliday will pitch good today and his curve ball will be hard to handle.

Toronto bats gonna cool down ..

Cheers !!!
Spock