Sunday over unders

L

Lucena

Registered User
Forum Member
Jul 19, 2002
2,574
14
0
The 65th Square
Hello everybody ...

I will be back full force in May once the pitchers get a few starts under their belts.

I will be posting a few play now and then until May.

My posted record last year would have won you about 5k with 100 bucks on each over/under.

Hope you saved some of that so we can hit the house hard again this year ...

Too bad Pinny is gone ...

as for tonight

you know I had to have a play for this one ...

Cards under ? first 4.5 innings single

My overs are always for the whole game and my under are always for the 1st half of the game.

Last year, I used Pinny that gave me the under for the 1st five innings.

This year it looks like I'm using the Greek with unders for the 1st 4.5 innings.

Also, Pinny would put these lines up overnight as I like to post the night before for all to see.

Hopefully, the Greek will do the same.

If your book does not have the under 4.5 innings you can just usually take the under for the whole game.

Remember overs are for the whole game and unders are for the 1st 4.5 innings only. I don't usually take team totals.

Also, plays are
single 1 unit
double 2 units
triple 3 units
hr 4 units
grand slam 5 units
( I love those grand slam plays)

oh yeah baby.

:00hour
 
M

McVegas

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 14, 2003
828
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0
NJ/FLA
Best of luck to you, will be looking forward to your plays. My local has lines for first half (5 innings) , I will give it a try and see how it works. Local also has lines for second half (6-9 including extra innings) have you ever tried any of these?
 
L

Lucena

Registered User
Forum Member
Jul 19, 2002
2,574
14
0
The 65th Square
theory

theory

here is the short of it

my plays are extremely heavy on the starting pitching

I track each starter carefully ...



so if I like the under, I like to take the bullpens out of it

hence the under 4.5 innnings

you really have to sweat these out, believe me

if I like the over ... even if the starters do decent, the bullpen can always mess it up

worked very well last year

:00hour :00hour :00hour
 
T

tmlfan4ever

BleedsBlue
Forum Member
Oct 25, 2005
280
0
0
Toronto, Canada
Good to hear someone uses the first half lines as well!

I was quite successful with them last year and certainly agree with you that they make analysis of starting matchups a little more reliable.

For example, tonights total line is 7.5 for the Mets and Cards. Pinnacle total runs for the first 5 innings is set at 4 (-104 for the under). As a proportion of the whole game, this gives an implied total of 7.2 (4/[5/9]). Basically, they are giving you the same proportional total with a marginal increase in juice where we can all but assure that the two starters will still be in the game.

I am already on the under here as well because I didn't fall in love with either of the sides and want a little bit of action on opening night.

Lets get em tonight. I'll look forward to following with you this year!
 
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