1:35 PM [956] TOTAL u8+100 (NY METS vrs PHI PHILLIES) ( J DEGROM -R / Z EFLIN -R )
4:10 PM [961] LA DODGERS -154 ( ACTION )
4:40 PM [963] SFO GIANTS -220 ( ACTION )
1:10 PM [966] DET TIGERS -145 ( ACTION )
1:10 PM [967] BAL ORIOLES -118 ( ACTION )
3:00 PM [601] LA SPARKS -7-145 (B+2)
1 unit bet pays 24 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 10-105, -27.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Bundy, 22, has a 3.08 ERA in 22 relief appearances with the Orioles this year, his first full season since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2013. Bundy, who is out of Minor League options, made the club out of Spring Training and was expected to build his arm strength and get innings under his belt, though manager Buck Showalter hinted at a potential starting spot at some point.
Don't be expecting Bundy to rip off seven dazzling innings in his first MLB start, though. The signal is there that this will likely be a planned bullpen-heavy game... but how does that differ from other games? The rotation ranks 28th in the majors with a 5.15 ERA...
How far that might be into the game is a bit of an open question. The most pitches that Bundy has thrown in any of his appearances this season is 57, and he's only thrown 50+ pitches in three out of his 22 games. Not that anyone should ever expect a complete game from an Orioles starting pitcher, but it is probably not even a theoretical possibility in this instance. Even thinking about a 75 pitch limit might be too aggressive.
The injury problems in particular are the biggest risk. The one thing that everyone agrees on about arm problems is that the biggest risk factor of future arm problems is having had arm problems in the past. That's always going to be an elephant in the room with Bundy...
What kind of velocity will he be able to hold as a starter? Will that be consistent or will it tail off in later innings? How much adjusting will he have to do, and be able to do, to get through lineups a third time in a game? What will be the status of the much-ballyhooed cutter as he goes about all of these things?
?What he?s going through right now is he?s learning to be a reliever first, second he?s learning how to deal with giving up hits, giving up runs,? O?Day said. ?His whole life he?s been the best guy in the league, so to come up here and face the top 400-500 hitters in the world, it?s tough. It?s a steep slope he?s climbing up and there are a lot of things he?s learning on the fly. He?s doing a great job. He?s got a great attitude.?
Showalter is quick to point out Bundy?s growth. When he first joined the organization, his time to the plate was 1.6 seconds. It is now 1.2 to 1.3 seconds. Showalter has been impressed with the relentlessness Bundy has shown when going after hitters.
It is obvious that Bundy?s arm is getting stronger. His average fastball velocity has gone up --- from 94.34 mph in April to 94.93 in May to 95.87 so far in June ? all while throwing longer outings. He?s getting hitters out with three pitches ? his fastball, curveball and changeup, and Showalter said that after this year the organization will revisit reincorporating the cutter and slider into his arsenal.
?He?s doing this without all his pitches, and he may not ever if we found that was hurting him some,? Showalter said. ?But usually you really don?t know what the finished product is until the next year.?
He's pitched on back-to-back days just once. And Showalter points to Bundy?s effectiveness when he gets four days of rest ? as a starter would. In those situations, Bundy has a 1.93 ERA and holds opposing hitters to a .235 batting average.
In his most recent outing on July 6, Bundy shut out the Dodgers over 2 1/3 innings and struck out seven batters. He hasn?t surrendered an earned run over his last six appearances, allowing 11 hits and striking out 19 batters.
In nine games working on four or more day?s of rest, Bundy has allowed two runs over 17 1/3 innings and struck out 20 battes. The switch to a starter?s schedule also has hiked the velocity on his fastball to the upper 90s.
Bundy has faced the Rays once in his career, shutting them out over three innings and striking out four batters on June 26 at Camden Yards.
Odorizzi is 0-3 with a 3.90 ERA in 10 starts at Tropicana Field this season and 0-1 with a 5.63 ERA in 3 starts vs. the O's. While his other stuff has been good, not having his changeup has hurt the effectiveness of his other pitches in 2016.
TB are 8-20 in their last 28 home games.
---------
Detroit Tigers are 10-1 in Fulmer?s last 11 starts.
Cincinnati is 5-2 in Straily?s last seven home starts
Jacob deGrom is an impressive 14-3 with a 1.72 ERA in 26 career day starts (4-1, 2.76 day starts this season... day and night, overall, 5-4, 2.61 - so 4 of his 5 wins this season been the day starts)
rookie Zach Eflin, who has gone 2-2 with a 4.08 ERA in six starts, including 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA in his last three starts and 1-1 with a 1.84 ERA in two starts here at home. This will be his first start vs the Mets. At Triple A Lehigh this year he went 5-2 with a 2.90 ERA in 11 starts.
Under is 13-5-1 in Mets last 19 games vs. a right-handed starter
Under is 7-2 in Phillies last nine home games vs. a right-handed starter
Under is 7-3 in their last 10 home games
Opposing Weaver will be right-hander Jacob Turner, who will be making his first major league start in two years. Turner was recalled from Triple-A Charlotte after Saturday night's 1-0 loss and replaces left-hander Carlos Rodon, who is on the disabled list with a sprained left wrist.
Turner, who signed as a free agent in December, made 18 starts for Charlotte. Despite pitching a complete-game shutout, the 25-year-old owns a 4-7 record and a 4.71 ERA. In 107 innings, Turner has allowed 29 walks and 125 hits, including 10 home runs, while amassing 85 strikeouts.
Hill was initially scheduled to pitch Friday night against Toronto, but his start was pushed back two days because of two blisters on the middle finger of his left hand. Hill said a blister developed late in his final start before the All-Star break against Houston and that another one appeared after he had a long throwing session on flat ground three days later on July 10.
"It's fine now," Hill said Saturday. "There's no issues. It feels good. .... I think it was more of a precautionary thing than anything, to make sure it was 100 percent healed. And we had the time to do that."
San Diego is hoping Jackson can improve on the 7.02 ERA he has posted in 16 2/3 innings in the Minors.
Blue Jays vs. A's
Play: A's -114
Rich Hill could be auditioning for another team on Sunday as the A's host the Jays. Hill is 9-3 with a 2.25 ERA and a WHIP of 1.092 in 13 starts for Oakland. He has allowed just five runs and 12 hits in his last three starts striking out 25 while walking just seven. Toronto is hitting .229 in 27 games against left-handed starters. They are also hitting around .236 on the road. On the opposite end you have JA Happ who has good numbers, yet I'm not a believer in his stuff. Happ is facing an Oakland team that is hitting .274 against left-handed starters and has a lineup that has hit well after the break. I like the Athletics bullpen better then Toronto's so I'll take the cheap price with the better pitcher at home.
Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves
Play: Colorado Rockies +104
Colorado right-hander Jon Gray's fielding-independent metrics suggest a strong second half campaign. Gray toes the rubber with a 4.77 ERA and 1.18 WHIP this season, but his 3.56 xFIP suggests that he has performed significantly better than his surface statistics would indicate. Gray has been particularly unlucky with men on base as evidenced by his 65.8% strand rate, which is seven percentage points below the league average.
The positives for Gray include a 25.9% K% (9.64 K/9), a 7.9% BB% (2.94 BB/9) and an 18.0% K-BB%, together with a career-best 48.5% ground ball rate. While a 1.22 HR/9 rate is concerning, it's much higher than what Gray has posted in his career (0.72 HR/9 in '14; 0.71 HR/9 & 0.89 HR/9 in '15) and should regress closer to 1.0 HR/9 based upon his underlying skill set. The third overall pick in the 2013 draft is also backed by a surprisingly effective Colorado bullpen that owns a 3.44 ERA and 1.26 WHIP away from Coors Field this season.
Atlanta starter Julio Teheran is being shopped as a #1 starter based upon his 2.96 ERA and 0.96 WHIP this season. However, the 25-year-old is surrounded by red flags, including a 3.91 FIP and a 4.10 xFIP, two fielding-independent metrics that suggest regression is around the corner. Teheran has also been aided by a career-best (and unsustainable) .235 BABIP, which is likely to regress closer to his career level of around .279. A lucky 80.1% strand rate has also helped the right-hander maintain a misleading 2.96 ERA.
Atlanta's bullpen enters today's game with a 4.60 ERA and 1.51 WHIP at home and a 5.04 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in day games. The Braves are also a money-burning 11-18 in afternoon contests wherein they are averaging just 3.3 runs per game (.226 AVG.; .285 OBP; .614 OPS). The Rockies are actually above-.500 in day games where they are averaging 5.0 runs per game (.260 AVG.; .433 SLG; .763 OPS). Let's also note that Colorado is averaging 5.2 runs per game versus right-handed starters (.278 AVG.; .448 SLG; .784 OPS) and 6.3 runs in its last seven games (.296 AVG.; .351 OBP; .456 SLG; .807 OPS).
Technically speaking, the Braves are a woeful 1-10 in Teheran's last 11 home starts, 1-6 in his last seven starts versus teams with a losing record (0-4 L/4 at home) and 0-10 in his last ten home starts with a total between 7 and 8.5 runs. Atlanta is also 3-25 at home with a total of 7.5 runs or less, 2-9 as a favorite of -150 or less, 16-35 during game 3 of a series, 27-63 following a loss, 17-44 versus National League West foes, 9-23 versus right-handed starters and 8-22 in its last 30 home games versus teams with a losing road record.
With Colorado standing at 10-1 in the last eleven meetings in this series, take the Rockies behind arguably the better starting pitcher and invest with confidence.
Rangers vs. Cubs
Play: Over 10
The number on this total certainly looks big but it is absolutely justified here even though it is Cole Hamels and John Lackey on the mound in this one. The wind is going to be blowing out at a good clip at Wrigley Field this afternoon and both starting pitchers have shown some chinks in the armor lately. Hamels has allowed 5 earned runs in each of his two July starts and both lasted less than 5 innings. Lackey went 6 innings in each of his two starts in July but, like Hamels, he allowed 5 earned runs in each outing. He also has given up 4 homers so far this month and this should be a slugfest based on the weather conditions at Wrigley today. Look for the Cubs lineup to get some revenge on Hamels today after he no-hit them last July as a member of the Phillies. The over is 26-16 in Cubs day games this season. For the Rangers, the over is 9-2-1 in Hamels last 12 starts. All signs point to another one here.
Baltimore -1? +141 over TAMPA BAY
Jake Odorizzi has seen his hot start melt into numbers more in line with his performance indicators. Recent ugly turns for Odorizzi include a disaster against this foe, the Orioles. In fact, Odorizzi has a 6.40 xERA in three starts against Baltimore this season. Current Orioles own a .293/.335/.490 slash line against the Tampa Bay hurler. And with Odorizzi being a fly-ball pitcher, that?s no surprise, as Baltimore hammers fly-ball pitchers. Given his relative youth, Odorizzi still has time to improve his repertoire but "as-is", the lack of a true swing-and-miss off-speed pitch and below average fastball velocity limit his upside. The Rays are 19? games back of the Orioles and they are 1-9 in their last 10 games. In other words, their season is over and they?re playing like it.
Dylan Bundy will make his season starting debut here. At this point it is only "Bundy on Sunday," but the back of the Baltimore rotation could be a land of some opportunity for Bundy. He has only been used twice (in 22 appearances) during 2016 on less than three days? rest, and has not thrown more than three innings or 57 pitches in any of those outings, as the Orioles are trying to maximize his effectiveness while minimizing his innings. This makes a "bullpen game" likely today, as he probably will not get through five innings for the win. Of course, the number four and five starters in Baltimore (Ubaldo Jimenez, Tyler Wilson and Mike Wright) are only averaging 4? innings in their 17 starts since June 1, so this game may not feel much different. However, Bundy's skills are trending upward over the past 31 days (12.0 K?s/9, 15% swing and miss rate, 95.3 velocity in 12 innings over five appearances), and this is now putting the Baltimore front office on the spot regarding his 2016 innings limit. His total innings count by year since his 2012 professional debut (105, 41, 24, and now 38 year to date in 2016) and his FFF reliability grade both scream caution, and make it probable that there will be only limited use of Bundy in the rotation during 2016, despite skills and results that top those of the other current candidates. Injuries have delayed this top prospect's arrival, with TJS erasing nearly all of 2013-14, and shoulder issue ending 2015 in May. As noted, Bundy?s skills have been strong in a small sample size. His long-term upside remains high, but can he stay healthy? Bundy is likely to be handled with care, so don't count on him making a major impact this year but for this one start, he?s probably a very decent bet against a brutal Rays? team that can?t hit or that can?t win games.
MINNESOTA +120 over Cleveland
Do we love Kyle Gibson? No. Despite decent stuff and an elite 53% groundball rate, Gibson has underachieved for years. He has trouble putting away hitters once he gets two strikes on them, which has been a thorn in his side for years. Gibson has a decent swing-and-miss rate to augment his strong groundball profile but it has never flourished into anything besides mediocrity. We?ve seen flashes but not consistency. What Gibson comes up with today is anyone?s guess but as a dog at home, he and the Twinkies are certainly worthy of backing.
As long as these prices keep coming in on the Twins, expect them to be on our slate often. Last night?s 5-4 victory by Minnesota was a flattering score to the Indians, as Minnesota had numerous chances to put up crooked numbers in four different innings. The Twinkies had 19 team LOB?s. They had a runner on third with less than two outs on seven AB?s during the game and cashed in just one. The opportunities to score are there, which is a great sign. Minnesota closed out the first half on a hot streak, Mike Tomlin: not so much. Tomlin has coughed up eight HR?s over his last 25 innings. His 2.62 surface ERA on the road this season is not supported by his performance indicators. Tomlin has a 7% overall swing and miss rate and a 6% swing and miss rate over his last seven starts. His greatest asset is his pinpoint control (11 walks in 100 innings) but that?s his only redeeming quality. Tomlin?s surface stats (9-2 with a 3.51 ERA) combined with Cleveland?s record has pushed this price way higher than it should be. We would even go as far as saying that the Twins should be favored. It may also surprise you to learn that Cleveland?s offense ranks 26th out of 30 teams in road OPS and 30th or dead last in on base percentage (OBP) on the road.
4:10 PM [961] LA DODGERS -154 ( ACTION )
4:40 PM [963] SFO GIANTS -220 ( ACTION )
1:10 PM [966] DET TIGERS -145 ( ACTION )
1:10 PM [967] BAL ORIOLES -118 ( ACTION )
3:00 PM [601] LA SPARKS -7-145 (B+2)
1 unit bet pays 24 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 10-105, -27.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Bundy, 22, has a 3.08 ERA in 22 relief appearances with the Orioles this year, his first full season since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2013. Bundy, who is out of Minor League options, made the club out of Spring Training and was expected to build his arm strength and get innings under his belt, though manager Buck Showalter hinted at a potential starting spot at some point.
Don't be expecting Bundy to rip off seven dazzling innings in his first MLB start, though. The signal is there that this will likely be a planned bullpen-heavy game... but how does that differ from other games? The rotation ranks 28th in the majors with a 5.15 ERA...
How far that might be into the game is a bit of an open question. The most pitches that Bundy has thrown in any of his appearances this season is 57, and he's only thrown 50+ pitches in three out of his 22 games. Not that anyone should ever expect a complete game from an Orioles starting pitcher, but it is probably not even a theoretical possibility in this instance. Even thinking about a 75 pitch limit might be too aggressive.
The injury problems in particular are the biggest risk. The one thing that everyone agrees on about arm problems is that the biggest risk factor of future arm problems is having had arm problems in the past. That's always going to be an elephant in the room with Bundy...
What kind of velocity will he be able to hold as a starter? Will that be consistent or will it tail off in later innings? How much adjusting will he have to do, and be able to do, to get through lineups a third time in a game? What will be the status of the much-ballyhooed cutter as he goes about all of these things?
?What he?s going through right now is he?s learning to be a reliever first, second he?s learning how to deal with giving up hits, giving up runs,? O?Day said. ?His whole life he?s been the best guy in the league, so to come up here and face the top 400-500 hitters in the world, it?s tough. It?s a steep slope he?s climbing up and there are a lot of things he?s learning on the fly. He?s doing a great job. He?s got a great attitude.?
Showalter is quick to point out Bundy?s growth. When he first joined the organization, his time to the plate was 1.6 seconds. It is now 1.2 to 1.3 seconds. Showalter has been impressed with the relentlessness Bundy has shown when going after hitters.
It is obvious that Bundy?s arm is getting stronger. His average fastball velocity has gone up --- from 94.34 mph in April to 94.93 in May to 95.87 so far in June ? all while throwing longer outings. He?s getting hitters out with three pitches ? his fastball, curveball and changeup, and Showalter said that after this year the organization will revisit reincorporating the cutter and slider into his arsenal.
?He?s doing this without all his pitches, and he may not ever if we found that was hurting him some,? Showalter said. ?But usually you really don?t know what the finished product is until the next year.?
He's pitched on back-to-back days just once. And Showalter points to Bundy?s effectiveness when he gets four days of rest ? as a starter would. In those situations, Bundy has a 1.93 ERA and holds opposing hitters to a .235 batting average.
In his most recent outing on July 6, Bundy shut out the Dodgers over 2 1/3 innings and struck out seven batters. He hasn?t surrendered an earned run over his last six appearances, allowing 11 hits and striking out 19 batters.
In nine games working on four or more day?s of rest, Bundy has allowed two runs over 17 1/3 innings and struck out 20 battes. The switch to a starter?s schedule also has hiked the velocity on his fastball to the upper 90s.
Bundy has faced the Rays once in his career, shutting them out over three innings and striking out four batters on June 26 at Camden Yards.
Odorizzi is 0-3 with a 3.90 ERA in 10 starts at Tropicana Field this season and 0-1 with a 5.63 ERA in 3 starts vs. the O's. While his other stuff has been good, not having his changeup has hurt the effectiveness of his other pitches in 2016.
TB are 8-20 in their last 28 home games.
---------
Detroit Tigers are 10-1 in Fulmer?s last 11 starts.
Cincinnati is 5-2 in Straily?s last seven home starts
Jacob deGrom is an impressive 14-3 with a 1.72 ERA in 26 career day starts (4-1, 2.76 day starts this season... day and night, overall, 5-4, 2.61 - so 4 of his 5 wins this season been the day starts)
rookie Zach Eflin, who has gone 2-2 with a 4.08 ERA in six starts, including 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA in his last three starts and 1-1 with a 1.84 ERA in two starts here at home. This will be his first start vs the Mets. At Triple A Lehigh this year he went 5-2 with a 2.90 ERA in 11 starts.
Under is 13-5-1 in Mets last 19 games vs. a right-handed starter
Under is 7-2 in Phillies last nine home games vs. a right-handed starter
Under is 7-3 in their last 10 home games
Opposing Weaver will be right-hander Jacob Turner, who will be making his first major league start in two years. Turner was recalled from Triple-A Charlotte after Saturday night's 1-0 loss and replaces left-hander Carlos Rodon, who is on the disabled list with a sprained left wrist.
Turner, who signed as a free agent in December, made 18 starts for Charlotte. Despite pitching a complete-game shutout, the 25-year-old owns a 4-7 record and a 4.71 ERA. In 107 innings, Turner has allowed 29 walks and 125 hits, including 10 home runs, while amassing 85 strikeouts.
Hill was initially scheduled to pitch Friday night against Toronto, but his start was pushed back two days because of two blisters on the middle finger of his left hand. Hill said a blister developed late in his final start before the All-Star break against Houston and that another one appeared after he had a long throwing session on flat ground three days later on July 10.
"It's fine now," Hill said Saturday. "There's no issues. It feels good. .... I think it was more of a precautionary thing than anything, to make sure it was 100 percent healed. And we had the time to do that."
San Diego is hoping Jackson can improve on the 7.02 ERA he has posted in 16 2/3 innings in the Minors.
Blue Jays vs. A's
Play: A's -114
Rich Hill could be auditioning for another team on Sunday as the A's host the Jays. Hill is 9-3 with a 2.25 ERA and a WHIP of 1.092 in 13 starts for Oakland. He has allowed just five runs and 12 hits in his last three starts striking out 25 while walking just seven. Toronto is hitting .229 in 27 games against left-handed starters. They are also hitting around .236 on the road. On the opposite end you have JA Happ who has good numbers, yet I'm not a believer in his stuff. Happ is facing an Oakland team that is hitting .274 against left-handed starters and has a lineup that has hit well after the break. I like the Athletics bullpen better then Toronto's so I'll take the cheap price with the better pitcher at home.
Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves
Play: Colorado Rockies +104
Colorado right-hander Jon Gray's fielding-independent metrics suggest a strong second half campaign. Gray toes the rubber with a 4.77 ERA and 1.18 WHIP this season, but his 3.56 xFIP suggests that he has performed significantly better than his surface statistics would indicate. Gray has been particularly unlucky with men on base as evidenced by his 65.8% strand rate, which is seven percentage points below the league average.
The positives for Gray include a 25.9% K% (9.64 K/9), a 7.9% BB% (2.94 BB/9) and an 18.0% K-BB%, together with a career-best 48.5% ground ball rate. While a 1.22 HR/9 rate is concerning, it's much higher than what Gray has posted in his career (0.72 HR/9 in '14; 0.71 HR/9 & 0.89 HR/9 in '15) and should regress closer to 1.0 HR/9 based upon his underlying skill set. The third overall pick in the 2013 draft is also backed by a surprisingly effective Colorado bullpen that owns a 3.44 ERA and 1.26 WHIP away from Coors Field this season.
Atlanta starter Julio Teheran is being shopped as a #1 starter based upon his 2.96 ERA and 0.96 WHIP this season. However, the 25-year-old is surrounded by red flags, including a 3.91 FIP and a 4.10 xFIP, two fielding-independent metrics that suggest regression is around the corner. Teheran has also been aided by a career-best (and unsustainable) .235 BABIP, which is likely to regress closer to his career level of around .279. A lucky 80.1% strand rate has also helped the right-hander maintain a misleading 2.96 ERA.
Atlanta's bullpen enters today's game with a 4.60 ERA and 1.51 WHIP at home and a 5.04 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in day games. The Braves are also a money-burning 11-18 in afternoon contests wherein they are averaging just 3.3 runs per game (.226 AVG.; .285 OBP; .614 OPS). The Rockies are actually above-.500 in day games where they are averaging 5.0 runs per game (.260 AVG.; .433 SLG; .763 OPS). Let's also note that Colorado is averaging 5.2 runs per game versus right-handed starters (.278 AVG.; .448 SLG; .784 OPS) and 6.3 runs in its last seven games (.296 AVG.; .351 OBP; .456 SLG; .807 OPS).
Technically speaking, the Braves are a woeful 1-10 in Teheran's last 11 home starts, 1-6 in his last seven starts versus teams with a losing record (0-4 L/4 at home) and 0-10 in his last ten home starts with a total between 7 and 8.5 runs. Atlanta is also 3-25 at home with a total of 7.5 runs or less, 2-9 as a favorite of -150 or less, 16-35 during game 3 of a series, 27-63 following a loss, 17-44 versus National League West foes, 9-23 versus right-handed starters and 8-22 in its last 30 home games versus teams with a losing road record.
With Colorado standing at 10-1 in the last eleven meetings in this series, take the Rockies behind arguably the better starting pitcher and invest with confidence.
Rangers vs. Cubs
Play: Over 10
The number on this total certainly looks big but it is absolutely justified here even though it is Cole Hamels and John Lackey on the mound in this one. The wind is going to be blowing out at a good clip at Wrigley Field this afternoon and both starting pitchers have shown some chinks in the armor lately. Hamels has allowed 5 earned runs in each of his two July starts and both lasted less than 5 innings. Lackey went 6 innings in each of his two starts in July but, like Hamels, he allowed 5 earned runs in each outing. He also has given up 4 homers so far this month and this should be a slugfest based on the weather conditions at Wrigley today. Look for the Cubs lineup to get some revenge on Hamels today after he no-hit them last July as a member of the Phillies. The over is 26-16 in Cubs day games this season. For the Rangers, the over is 9-2-1 in Hamels last 12 starts. All signs point to another one here.
Baltimore -1? +141 over TAMPA BAY
Jake Odorizzi has seen his hot start melt into numbers more in line with his performance indicators. Recent ugly turns for Odorizzi include a disaster against this foe, the Orioles. In fact, Odorizzi has a 6.40 xERA in three starts against Baltimore this season. Current Orioles own a .293/.335/.490 slash line against the Tampa Bay hurler. And with Odorizzi being a fly-ball pitcher, that?s no surprise, as Baltimore hammers fly-ball pitchers. Given his relative youth, Odorizzi still has time to improve his repertoire but "as-is", the lack of a true swing-and-miss off-speed pitch and below average fastball velocity limit his upside. The Rays are 19? games back of the Orioles and they are 1-9 in their last 10 games. In other words, their season is over and they?re playing like it.
Dylan Bundy will make his season starting debut here. At this point it is only "Bundy on Sunday," but the back of the Baltimore rotation could be a land of some opportunity for Bundy. He has only been used twice (in 22 appearances) during 2016 on less than three days? rest, and has not thrown more than three innings or 57 pitches in any of those outings, as the Orioles are trying to maximize his effectiveness while minimizing his innings. This makes a "bullpen game" likely today, as he probably will not get through five innings for the win. Of course, the number four and five starters in Baltimore (Ubaldo Jimenez, Tyler Wilson and Mike Wright) are only averaging 4? innings in their 17 starts since June 1, so this game may not feel much different. However, Bundy's skills are trending upward over the past 31 days (12.0 K?s/9, 15% swing and miss rate, 95.3 velocity in 12 innings over five appearances), and this is now putting the Baltimore front office on the spot regarding his 2016 innings limit. His total innings count by year since his 2012 professional debut (105, 41, 24, and now 38 year to date in 2016) and his FFF reliability grade both scream caution, and make it probable that there will be only limited use of Bundy in the rotation during 2016, despite skills and results that top those of the other current candidates. Injuries have delayed this top prospect's arrival, with TJS erasing nearly all of 2013-14, and shoulder issue ending 2015 in May. As noted, Bundy?s skills have been strong in a small sample size. His long-term upside remains high, but can he stay healthy? Bundy is likely to be handled with care, so don't count on him making a major impact this year but for this one start, he?s probably a very decent bet against a brutal Rays? team that can?t hit or that can?t win games.
MINNESOTA +120 over Cleveland
Do we love Kyle Gibson? No. Despite decent stuff and an elite 53% groundball rate, Gibson has underachieved for years. He has trouble putting away hitters once he gets two strikes on them, which has been a thorn in his side for years. Gibson has a decent swing-and-miss rate to augment his strong groundball profile but it has never flourished into anything besides mediocrity. We?ve seen flashes but not consistency. What Gibson comes up with today is anyone?s guess but as a dog at home, he and the Twinkies are certainly worthy of backing.
As long as these prices keep coming in on the Twins, expect them to be on our slate often. Last night?s 5-4 victory by Minnesota was a flattering score to the Indians, as Minnesota had numerous chances to put up crooked numbers in four different innings. The Twinkies had 19 team LOB?s. They had a runner on third with less than two outs on seven AB?s during the game and cashed in just one. The opportunities to score are there, which is a great sign. Minnesota closed out the first half on a hot streak, Mike Tomlin: not so much. Tomlin has coughed up eight HR?s over his last 25 innings. His 2.62 surface ERA on the road this season is not supported by his performance indicators. Tomlin has a 7% overall swing and miss rate and a 6% swing and miss rate over his last seven starts. His greatest asset is his pinpoint control (11 walks in 100 innings) but that?s his only redeeming quality. Tomlin?s surface stats (9-2 with a 3.51 ERA) combined with Cleveland?s record has pushed this price way higher than it should be. We would even go as far as saying that the Twins should be favored. It may also surprise you to learn that Cleveland?s offense ranks 26th out of 30 teams in road OPS and 30th or dead last in on base percentage (OBP) on the road.
