1:10 PM [952] TOTAL u7.5 +100 (STL CARDINALS vrs MIA MARLINS) ( C MARTINEZ -R / A CASHNER -R )
4:05 PM [959] WAS NATIONALS -119 ( ACTION )
1:05 PM [966] TOTAL u9-115 (BAL ORIOLES vrs TOR BLUE JAYS) (TILLMAN/SANCHEZ)
1:10 PM [970] CLE INDIANS -1.5 +105 ( S GRAY -R / C KLUBER -R )
1:10 PM [971] TOTAL o9.5 -105 (HOU ASTROS vrs DET TIGERS) ( D KEUCHEL -L / M PELFREY -R )
3:05 PM [976] TOTAL u10+100 (KC ROYALS vrs TEX RANGERS) ( D GEE -R / L HARRELL -R )
1 unit bet pays 54 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 11-121, -26.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
I'm thinking Gee will pitch well again at Rangers (was born in nearby Cleburne, Texas, and played collegiate at UT-Arlington) and Harrell be pumped up for 1st start with new team, like Cashner.....and Cleveland be loose, energized, and swing away happy with the recent trade.
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Sanchez has been on fire lately, going 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP over the past three starts spanning 19 innings. The stretch lately is even better than his overall 11-1 record, 2.72 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. There are no signs of slowing down, although Sanchez and the Blue Jays will certainly be put to the test against Chris Tillman and the Baltimore Orioles. The O's are 5-1 in Tillman's past six road starts, and 11-0 in his past 11 against divisional foes. Sanchez is just as good against the AL East, as the Blue Jays are 6-0 in his past six against divisional rivals and 6-1 in his past seven at Rogers Centre.
Joe Peta, author of "Trading Bases, A Story about Wall Street, Gambling, and Baseball" speaks here (at 11:30 mark) about Baltimore's success in new strategy of increased bullpen usage...and after that he talks of the best and worst teams so far this season (from a betting perspective)....Interestingly, he said he was wrong about all those wins Texas would have by the All-Star break, but his mistake there did not cost him any money as the oddsmakers were even more wrong. Then he speaks on the reason it's so hard for the average bettor to beat favorites prices -145 to -180...
Efficiency has been Syndergaard?s bugaboo of late. Due in part to high pitch counts and in part to the Mets? caution regarding his recently fatigued arm, Syndergaard has lasted into the seventh inning just once in his last six starts.
Noah Syndergaard - I don't know about you guys, but after that 93/91 scare, this velocity chart is kinda frightening. It's not incredibly drastic and may be understandable that he had a small dip in the later innings, but obviously not something I'm thrilled about.
Under is 20-6 in COL last 26 road games.
Under is 7-1 in NYM last 8 home games.
Under is 10-2 in NYM last 12 Sun. games.
Under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings.
Keuchel's 3.58 xFIP in 120 innings shows he could post better results in the second half.
Houston @ DETROIT
Houston -1? +119 over DETROIT
This is a great opportunity for the Astros to get back in the W column because it?s such a favorable pitching matchup. Dallas Keuchel continues to carry surface stats (4.57 ERA, 1.33 WHIP), that are going to scare the market off for the most part. At the same time, we?ll note that Keuchel's skills have progressively shown more life every month. Keuchel has rounded back into his Cy Young form with a great month of July that saw him allow just 20 hits in 26 frames over four starts with his elite groundball rate working strongly again. Keuchel has pitched into the seventh inning in six of his past seven starts and is very likely in for a big finish.
You fade the Astronauts when they are facing a strikeout pitcher because they are a free swinging group that strikes out a ton. You back the Astros when they are facing a pitcher like Mike Pelfrey, who would have trouble striking out out Betty White. In 110 innings, Pelfrey has struck out 48 batters for the worst strikeout rate (3.9 K?s/9) in the majors among pitchers with 50 or more innings. Oh, Pelfrey has also issued 45 walks. His swing and miss rate is 4% but what?s so fascinating is that Pelfrey averages 93 MPH on the gun. That?s actually worse than throwing 88-90 because his fastball has proven to be so easy to hit and a 93 MPH fastball comes off the bat harder than an 87-90 MPH fastball. Pelfrey is so bad, and so much of it. First-pitch strike rate volatility debunks any swing and miss he gets. He's also had two season-ending arm surgeries over the past two years. Normally, bad pitchers get very little rope. This one has 20 starts' worth and he?ll now face a power lineup with speed.
Michael Pineda - 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. last start. Fun fact: George Springer hit a solo shot on Pineda's first pitch of the game, which means he had 0 ER and six baserunners after that single pitch. Pineda also came oh-so-close to screwing it all up by allowing and single and two walks to bring Alex Bregman to the plate with two-outs, who missed a grand slam by a foot or two. Anyway, his Slider + Changeup were looking great tonight, as he command both his Fastball and secondary stuff down in the zone - ultra important for Pineda who has gotten beat on elevated pitches that leave the yard. So badly do I want to get excited about Pineda again, but don't forget that he's just two starts removed from a pair of 5 ER clunkers. He's certainly moving in the right direction, but he's not fully out of the woods yet. Color me cautiously optimistic. What color is that? Ummmm, let's go with Enchanted Forest Green. I'm enamored with Pine who could give me the green. IT MAKES SENSE I SWEAR.
Pineda under 7-1-2 last 10
Snell under 8-2 last 10.
Under is 13-3 in NYY last 16 overall.
Over is 11-5-1 in NYY last 17 road games.
Under is 16-4-2 in TB last 22 overall.
-- Under is 13-3 in NYY last 16 overall.
Carlos Martinez under is 8-1-1 last 10
Carlos Martinez is having a great season, right? If you focus strictly on his surface stats -- a 2.87 ERA and 1.16 WHIP -- sure, that's impressive. His 7.5 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9, on the other hand, are nothing special, and in fact, both are worse than that of a league-average pitcher. The primary factor driving Martinez's success is an unusually low 0.270 batting average on balls in play (BABIP); that kind of mark is usually reserved for fly ball pitchers, and an extreme ground ball hurler usually carries a BABIP closer to 0.300. Of course, countering a customarily high hit rate for a ground ball pitcher is fewer homers, and sure enough, in a season in which the ball was flying out of the yard at a near-record pace heading into the All-Star break, the St. Louis Cardinals righty did a great job minimizing long balls; that's the other reason he has outpitched his walk and whiff rates. Seasonal owners would be wise to anticipate a spike in hit rate, pushing Martinez closer to a 3.10/1.20 plateau, though those numbers are still outstanding.
Cardinals / Marlins Under 8
I'll be on this under here for sure...A few things I like in this one..Cashner now is with the Marlins after he was traded away from the Padres..New guys always want to step up for the new team and Miami actually looks good this season..Cashner can help them out in a major way...Cards haven't seen much of him so he might be able to limit them hitting here on the road...Martinez goes for the Cards and has been solid all year..Cards can;t afford a loss here and Martinez is just a true fire baller...I can't see this hitting 9 runs..Under is the call.
Eickhoff threw his curveball 28 times in Tuesday?s victory over the Marlins. He had gotten away from the pitch recently, which had puzzled Phillies coaches because it might be one of the better curveballs in baseball.....Under is 10-3 in Eickhoffs last 13 starts overall.
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Play: Philadelphia Phillies -120
Philadelphia right-hander Jerad Eickhoff has become one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. The 26-year-old owns a decent 3.83 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and a 3.82 FIP in 21 starts this season, including posting a 3.27 ERA and 1.20 WHIP versus division opponents. Eickhoff is also 2-1 with a 1.73 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in four career starts against the Braves.
Eickhoff's success has been predicated upon a solid K-BB rate, together with vastly improved exit velocity suppression which is synonymous with control and command. Eickhoff's arsenal is well above-average based on swinging strikes and ground ball z-scores (plus offerings with his curveball, slider and sinker). In 2015, Eickhoff induced the highest rate of swinging strikes among any slider (minimum 100 pitches).
He posted a solid 3.25 FIP with his slider last season, good for 27th in baseball, and Eickhoff has significantly increased his slider usage over the last 2+ months. Rookie Joel De La Cruz, a 27-year-old right-hander who posted a 4.68 ERA and a 4.22 FIP in 57.2 Triple-A innings this season, toes the rubber for the Braves this afternoon. In 19.1 Major League innings, De La Cruz is 0-3 with a 4.66 ERA and a 5.20 FIP and 4.66 xFIP (14.1K%; 10.6% K-BB%).
The Braves are a money-burning 15-38 in their last 53 home games, 11-25 in their last 36 home games versus right-handed starters and 1-6 in their last seven meetings in this series.
Carlos Rodon returned to the White Sox on Tuesday after a one-start Minor League rehab assignment with Triple-A Charlotte in Louisville.
The left-hander struck out three and walked two over 3 2/3 innings, allowing two earned runs on five hits while testing a sprained left wrist that put him on the disabled list July 9. "Felt good," Rodon said. "Threw everything, felt good. Everything responded well."
Andrew Cashner puts on the Miami Marlins' uniform for the first time facing a big challenge in the St. Louis Cardinals...Cashner has come out of the break with a couple extra ticks on his heater. It remains to be seen if he sustains that, but if you're looking for a reason to take a chance on the righty, there it is.
After striking out 26 batters in two AAA starts, it was hard not to get excited for Tyler Skaggs' return to the majors and he gave owners an excellent 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks line. Clearly I have to be all aboard this train after this kind of performance, right? Ehhhh not so much... I wasn't super impressed during this 2016 debut of Skaggs. His Fastball is coming in around 91/92 mph (hit around 95 mph in the earlier innings due to adrenaline before slipping near 90 mph in the later innings) and it relied on excellent command down in the zone to get hitters out. The Changeup needs a good amount of work, though his deuce looks ready to rack up a handful of strikeouts here and there. The way I see it, Skaggs doesn't have enough movement or zip on his heater to avoid clunkers if his command isn't impeccable like it was yesterday, while he doesn't have a proper go-to secondary pitch to earn him strikes when hitters are locked in on his heater. That Changeup just isn't good enough yet. It gives me a bit of worry, and while I'm still going after him, I've already reserved a lovely seat on the bench for him in his next start against Boston.
The Reds welcome back Homer Bailey for his first start back from reconstructive elbow surgery. After eight minor-league rehab starts he was 1-3 with a 5.14 ERA between Triple-A Louisville and Double-A Pensacola. However, he is still 5-0 with a 3.61 ERA in eight career outings against the San Diego Padres. He'll be helped out by the fact the Padres are lighter on offense with Matt Kemp having been shipped off to the Atlanta Braves Saturday night. Journeyman Paul Clemens will oppose Bailey and the Reds, as he makes his fourth start of the season for his second different team.
Hottest team: Rockies (5-0 past five, 9-1 past 10)
The Rockies have won the first three games at Citi Field by a combined 15-4 score, and they go for the four-game sweep in Sunday's contest. It has been a successful road trip so far for the Rox, winning five of their first six. Who said Colorado only can play at Coors Field? Colorado has won four straight road games against a right-handed starter, and they're 5-0 in their past five games against a team with a winning record. They're also 4-0 in Chad Bettis' past four outings, and they're 7-0 in his past seven assignments against National League East foes. On the flip side, the Mets are 1-5 in their past six vs. RHP, and they're winless in five straight against the NL West.
RED SOX VS. ANGELS
PLAY: ANGELS +104
Tyler Skaggs, part two for me today. I played on Skaggs and the Angels in his return to the majors earlier this week, and I want to ride the talented southpaw again in this spot.
Skaggs, who had been nothing short of brilliant in his final two AAA rehab starts, looked outstanding in handling the Royals on Tuesday night. Granted, the Red Sox lineup is vastly superior to that of the Royals, and there?s always the chance of the bounce effect coming into play off such a sensational first game back for Skaggs.
But I think it?s fair to say that Skaggs is catching Boston at the right time. The Red Sox offense isn?t in hibernation, but it?s definitely snoozing. If I?m going to try and beat the Bosox, I?d certainly rather try to do so when they?re not mashing.
Steven Wright will be on the mound for the Red Sox, and the knuckleballer is off a very bad outing where he appeared to be bothered by the heat and humidity. Wright could not get a good grip and therefore could not command his best pitch. That meant he had to rely on his other offerings more, and let?s just say those aren?t big league level pitches. I think Wright has a good chance to bounce back in this game against a so-so Halos lineup.
I definitely input current team form into my numbers, and with the Red Sox in a funk while the Angels are playing well, I made the Halos -110 in this game. So I feel like I?m getting okay value and with a definite desire to follow Skaggs for at least one more start, I?m taking the Angels in this series finale.
Coldest pitcher: Matt Garza, Milwaukee (1-4, 5.74 ERA)
Garza has been terrible lately, going 0-2 with a 6.06 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over his past three outings. He has had difficulty striking out batters, whiffing just eight over the past 16 1/3 innings. To make matters worse Ryan Braun is banged up and the Brewers agreed to a deal to ship Jonathan Lucroy to the Cleveland Indians. A lack of offensive support, and poor pitching by Garza, certainly doesn't bode well for the Brewers.
Twins -120
Minnesota is showing great value here as a small home favorite against the White Sox in Sunday's series finale. The Twins have taken each of the first two games of the series and are in a prime spot to finish off the sweep.
The White Sox have scored just 1 run in each of their last 3 games and are hitting a miserable .214 over their last 7 games. Their struggles will continue against Ervin Santana, who has pitched much better than his 3-9 record would indicate. Santana has a 3.78 ERA and 1.242 WHIP in 19 starts and comes into this one with a 2.53 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in his last 3 outings.
Chicago will counter with the struggling Carlos Rodon, who is 2-7 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.532 WHIP in 16 starts. Rodon has really struggled of late, posting a 6.06 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Rodon will also be making his first start since coming back from the DL, so there's a good chance he won't be sharp in this one either.
White Sox are 2-8 in their last 10 road games, 3-9 in Rodon's last 12 starts and 3-9 in their last 12 against a right-handed starter. Twins are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series, 6-2 in their last 8 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 4-1 in their last 5 against a left-handed starter.
Kansas City @ TEXAS
Kansas City +116 over TEXAS
Dillon Gee owns an ugly 4.54 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over 67 innings, and given his long history of mediocrity, he won't generate much market interest today. That said, he has been better than his ERA and WHIP would seem to indicate with 7.4 K?s/9, 3.1 BB?s/9 and 42% groundballs. His command is decent and it is backed by a 10% swing and miss rate and 62% first pitch strike rate. Furthermore, Gee's road ERA is 3.71 and at times he has been lethal against RH bats. Still, Gee is a risk for sure, especially in this unforgiving park but this wager has nothing to do with backing Dillon Gee.
The Rangers brass figured that trading for Lucas Harrell would bolster their starting rotation. Harrell comes over from Atlanta (who are still laughing their heads off) for 2013 first-round pick Travis Demeritte. Harrell has pitched 29 innings this season. Prior, he?s pitched a grand total of three MLB innings since 2013. Since 2010, Harrell has been on five teams. His overall numbers are 18-33 with a 4.84 ERA and 268 career strikeouts. He also has 200 career walks to his name. Harrell?s last extended stay in the majors was in 2013, when he led the American league in losses (17) and walks (88) in 153 innings. In August of 2014, the Diamondbacks released him. Three months later in October, Harrell signed a one-year contract with Korea's LG Twins. When he returned from Korea, where he went 10-11 with a 4.93 ERA and 1.65 WHIP, Harrell was signed to a minor-league contract by the Tigers. Two months later, Detroit released him outright at which point the Braves signed him and immediately sent him to Gwinnett. At the end of all this, the Braves essentially got Harrell for zilch and turned that into an asset. Great job by Atlanta.
So yeah, Harrell has decent surface numbers this year over five starts but we?re not going to put any weight whatsoever on 29 innings after every pro team in America, Canada, and Korea wanted nothing to do with this stiff. Harrell still has shaky command. His 0.3% hr/f rate is unsustainable. Combine that with his even groundball/fly-ball ratio and it reveals that Harrell has been pitching with some good fortune. His first-pitch strike rate of 50% and swing and miss rate of 6% says he?ll be issuing some free passes today like he always does. This is not some hot-shot prospect pitching for the Rangers today. This is Lucas Harrell, a 31-year-old journeyman that can?t throw strikes and that has been cut, traded or released by every team he?s ever played for. Now he?s favored
Biggest UNDER run: Giants (7-3 past 10)
The 'under' has cashed in seven of the past 10 for San Francisco, and the under is also 7-3 in their past 10 games at home against left-handed starting pitching. The under is also 6-0 in the past six for the Giants against a team with a winning record, and 5-0 in their past five at home against a team with a winning road record. In addition, the under is 4-0 in the past four home games against the Nationals, and 4-0 in their past four overall. The under is also 4-1 for the Nationals in their past five starts by Gio Gonzalez against the Giants.
Washington vs. San Francisco
Pick: Washington
The Nationals won the first two of this four-game series but the Giants earned a 5-3 Saturday afternoon. Both teams are first-place clubs, the Nats leading the NL East by five games and the Giants leading the NL West by two games. The Nats are a modest 7-7 since the break but that is ?light years? ahead of the Giants, who are just 3-11 since play resumed, after heading into the break with MLB?s best overall record. Gio Gonzalez (6-8, 4.44 ERA) gets the nod for the Nats and Matt Cain (2-6, 5.95 ERA) takes the hill for the Giants.
Gonzalez has returned from the break to produce two quality starts, beating the Dodgers 8-1 on July 20 and then, despite surrendering just two ERs over 6.1 innings this past Tuesday at Cleveland, settled for a no decision in a 7-6 loss. The Nats are 8-12 in Gonzalez?s 20 starts of 2016 and that includes just 3-7 in his away starts. The left-hander is 3-3 with a 3.33 ERA in nine career starts against the Giants, with the Nats going 5-5. That?s hardly too encouraging but his mound opponent, Matt Cain, is still trying to find some form since coming off the DL.
Cain?s made just 13 starts this season , posting a 5.95 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and allowing opponents to bat .314 against him (Giants are 5-8 in his starts). He returned from the DL to make a July 20th start at Boston, only to last a modest 2.1 innings, allowing six hits (three HRs) and five ERs. He was slightly better at home vs Cincy in his next outing, allowing four ERs on six hits (another two HRs) in 5.1 innings. Cain owns a 5-5 record and 3.64 ERA in 15 career starts against the Nationals (Giants are 9-6) but was ripped for five runs in 4.2 innings at home against Washington back on Aug 14, 2015 (yielding home two HRs) in his last outing vs the Nats.
Cain is looking for his 100th career win in this game but the Giants are in a funk (3-11 since the break) plus Cain?s two starts since returning from the DL have resulted in him allowing nine ERs on 12 hits (including five HRs!) in just eight innings (10.13 ERA). No reason to expect Cain gets that 100th win here.
The Mariners turn to Felix Hernandez for the series win, going up against left-handed starter Brian Matusz. While Seattle has struggled on the road lately, going 8-19 in their past 27 away from the Emerald City and 3-8 in their past 11 against left-handed starting pitching, they're still 4-1 in King Felix's past five outings on the road and 6-2 in his past eight starts overall. The Cubs are playing slightly better lately, but they're still just 7-16 in their past 23 against a team with a winning record. However, they have won seven of their past 11 against American League teams. Seattle is also an impressive 10-4 in their past 14 interleague road games, and 11-5 in their past 16 against National League squads.
4:05 PM [959] WAS NATIONALS -119 ( ACTION )
1:05 PM [966] TOTAL u9-115 (BAL ORIOLES vrs TOR BLUE JAYS) (TILLMAN/SANCHEZ)
1:10 PM [970] CLE INDIANS -1.5 +105 ( S GRAY -R / C KLUBER -R )
1:10 PM [971] TOTAL o9.5 -105 (HOU ASTROS vrs DET TIGERS) ( D KEUCHEL -L / M PELFREY -R )
3:05 PM [976] TOTAL u10+100 (KC ROYALS vrs TEX RANGERS) ( D GEE -R / L HARRELL -R )
1 unit bet pays 54 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 11-121, -26.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
I'm thinking Gee will pitch well again at Rangers (was born in nearby Cleburne, Texas, and played collegiate at UT-Arlington) and Harrell be pumped up for 1st start with new team, like Cashner.....and Cleveland be loose, energized, and swing away happy with the recent trade.
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Sanchez has been on fire lately, going 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP over the past three starts spanning 19 innings. The stretch lately is even better than his overall 11-1 record, 2.72 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. There are no signs of slowing down, although Sanchez and the Blue Jays will certainly be put to the test against Chris Tillman and the Baltimore Orioles. The O's are 5-1 in Tillman's past six road starts, and 11-0 in his past 11 against divisional foes. Sanchez is just as good against the AL East, as the Blue Jays are 6-0 in his past six against divisional rivals and 6-1 in his past seven at Rogers Centre.
Joe Peta, author of "Trading Bases, A Story about Wall Street, Gambling, and Baseball" speaks here (at 11:30 mark) about Baltimore's success in new strategy of increased bullpen usage...and after that he talks of the best and worst teams so far this season (from a betting perspective)....Interestingly, he said he was wrong about all those wins Texas would have by the All-Star break, but his mistake there did not cost him any money as the oddsmakers were even more wrong. Then he speaks on the reason it's so hard for the average bettor to beat favorites prices -145 to -180...
Efficiency has been Syndergaard?s bugaboo of late. Due in part to high pitch counts and in part to the Mets? caution regarding his recently fatigued arm, Syndergaard has lasted into the seventh inning just once in his last six starts.
Noah Syndergaard - I don't know about you guys, but after that 93/91 scare, this velocity chart is kinda frightening. It's not incredibly drastic and may be understandable that he had a small dip in the later innings, but obviously not something I'm thrilled about.
Under is 20-6 in COL last 26 road games.
Under is 7-1 in NYM last 8 home games.
Under is 10-2 in NYM last 12 Sun. games.
Under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings.
Keuchel's 3.58 xFIP in 120 innings shows he could post better results in the second half.
Houston @ DETROIT
Houston -1? +119 over DETROIT
This is a great opportunity for the Astros to get back in the W column because it?s such a favorable pitching matchup. Dallas Keuchel continues to carry surface stats (4.57 ERA, 1.33 WHIP), that are going to scare the market off for the most part. At the same time, we?ll note that Keuchel's skills have progressively shown more life every month. Keuchel has rounded back into his Cy Young form with a great month of July that saw him allow just 20 hits in 26 frames over four starts with his elite groundball rate working strongly again. Keuchel has pitched into the seventh inning in six of his past seven starts and is very likely in for a big finish.
You fade the Astronauts when they are facing a strikeout pitcher because they are a free swinging group that strikes out a ton. You back the Astros when they are facing a pitcher like Mike Pelfrey, who would have trouble striking out out Betty White. In 110 innings, Pelfrey has struck out 48 batters for the worst strikeout rate (3.9 K?s/9) in the majors among pitchers with 50 or more innings. Oh, Pelfrey has also issued 45 walks. His swing and miss rate is 4% but what?s so fascinating is that Pelfrey averages 93 MPH on the gun. That?s actually worse than throwing 88-90 because his fastball has proven to be so easy to hit and a 93 MPH fastball comes off the bat harder than an 87-90 MPH fastball. Pelfrey is so bad, and so much of it. First-pitch strike rate volatility debunks any swing and miss he gets. He's also had two season-ending arm surgeries over the past two years. Normally, bad pitchers get very little rope. This one has 20 starts' worth and he?ll now face a power lineup with speed.
Michael Pineda - 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. last start. Fun fact: George Springer hit a solo shot on Pineda's first pitch of the game, which means he had 0 ER and six baserunners after that single pitch. Pineda also came oh-so-close to screwing it all up by allowing and single and two walks to bring Alex Bregman to the plate with two-outs, who missed a grand slam by a foot or two. Anyway, his Slider + Changeup were looking great tonight, as he command both his Fastball and secondary stuff down in the zone - ultra important for Pineda who has gotten beat on elevated pitches that leave the yard. So badly do I want to get excited about Pineda again, but don't forget that he's just two starts removed from a pair of 5 ER clunkers. He's certainly moving in the right direction, but he's not fully out of the woods yet. Color me cautiously optimistic. What color is that? Ummmm, let's go with Enchanted Forest Green. I'm enamored with Pine who could give me the green. IT MAKES SENSE I SWEAR.
Pineda under 7-1-2 last 10
Snell under 8-2 last 10.
Under is 13-3 in NYY last 16 overall.
Over is 11-5-1 in NYY last 17 road games.
Under is 16-4-2 in TB last 22 overall.
-- Under is 13-3 in NYY last 16 overall.
Carlos Martinez under is 8-1-1 last 10
Carlos Martinez is having a great season, right? If you focus strictly on his surface stats -- a 2.87 ERA and 1.16 WHIP -- sure, that's impressive. His 7.5 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9, on the other hand, are nothing special, and in fact, both are worse than that of a league-average pitcher. The primary factor driving Martinez's success is an unusually low 0.270 batting average on balls in play (BABIP); that kind of mark is usually reserved for fly ball pitchers, and an extreme ground ball hurler usually carries a BABIP closer to 0.300. Of course, countering a customarily high hit rate for a ground ball pitcher is fewer homers, and sure enough, in a season in which the ball was flying out of the yard at a near-record pace heading into the All-Star break, the St. Louis Cardinals righty did a great job minimizing long balls; that's the other reason he has outpitched his walk and whiff rates. Seasonal owners would be wise to anticipate a spike in hit rate, pushing Martinez closer to a 3.10/1.20 plateau, though those numbers are still outstanding.
Cardinals / Marlins Under 8
I'll be on this under here for sure...A few things I like in this one..Cashner now is with the Marlins after he was traded away from the Padres..New guys always want to step up for the new team and Miami actually looks good this season..Cashner can help them out in a major way...Cards haven't seen much of him so he might be able to limit them hitting here on the road...Martinez goes for the Cards and has been solid all year..Cards can;t afford a loss here and Martinez is just a true fire baller...I can't see this hitting 9 runs..Under is the call.
Eickhoff threw his curveball 28 times in Tuesday?s victory over the Marlins. He had gotten away from the pitch recently, which had puzzled Phillies coaches because it might be one of the better curveballs in baseball.....Under is 10-3 in Eickhoffs last 13 starts overall.
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Play: Philadelphia Phillies -120
Philadelphia right-hander Jerad Eickhoff has become one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. The 26-year-old owns a decent 3.83 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and a 3.82 FIP in 21 starts this season, including posting a 3.27 ERA and 1.20 WHIP versus division opponents. Eickhoff is also 2-1 with a 1.73 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in four career starts against the Braves.
Eickhoff's success has been predicated upon a solid K-BB rate, together with vastly improved exit velocity suppression which is synonymous with control and command. Eickhoff's arsenal is well above-average based on swinging strikes and ground ball z-scores (plus offerings with his curveball, slider and sinker). In 2015, Eickhoff induced the highest rate of swinging strikes among any slider (minimum 100 pitches).
He posted a solid 3.25 FIP with his slider last season, good for 27th in baseball, and Eickhoff has significantly increased his slider usage over the last 2+ months. Rookie Joel De La Cruz, a 27-year-old right-hander who posted a 4.68 ERA and a 4.22 FIP in 57.2 Triple-A innings this season, toes the rubber for the Braves this afternoon. In 19.1 Major League innings, De La Cruz is 0-3 with a 4.66 ERA and a 5.20 FIP and 4.66 xFIP (14.1K%; 10.6% K-BB%).
The Braves are a money-burning 15-38 in their last 53 home games, 11-25 in their last 36 home games versus right-handed starters and 1-6 in their last seven meetings in this series.
Carlos Rodon returned to the White Sox on Tuesday after a one-start Minor League rehab assignment with Triple-A Charlotte in Louisville.
The left-hander struck out three and walked two over 3 2/3 innings, allowing two earned runs on five hits while testing a sprained left wrist that put him on the disabled list July 9. "Felt good," Rodon said. "Threw everything, felt good. Everything responded well."
Andrew Cashner puts on the Miami Marlins' uniform for the first time facing a big challenge in the St. Louis Cardinals...Cashner has come out of the break with a couple extra ticks on his heater. It remains to be seen if he sustains that, but if you're looking for a reason to take a chance on the righty, there it is.
After striking out 26 batters in two AAA starts, it was hard not to get excited for Tyler Skaggs' return to the majors and he gave owners an excellent 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks line. Clearly I have to be all aboard this train after this kind of performance, right? Ehhhh not so much... I wasn't super impressed during this 2016 debut of Skaggs. His Fastball is coming in around 91/92 mph (hit around 95 mph in the earlier innings due to adrenaline before slipping near 90 mph in the later innings) and it relied on excellent command down in the zone to get hitters out. The Changeup needs a good amount of work, though his deuce looks ready to rack up a handful of strikeouts here and there. The way I see it, Skaggs doesn't have enough movement or zip on his heater to avoid clunkers if his command isn't impeccable like it was yesterday, while he doesn't have a proper go-to secondary pitch to earn him strikes when hitters are locked in on his heater. That Changeup just isn't good enough yet. It gives me a bit of worry, and while I'm still going after him, I've already reserved a lovely seat on the bench for him in his next start against Boston.
The Reds welcome back Homer Bailey for his first start back from reconstructive elbow surgery. After eight minor-league rehab starts he was 1-3 with a 5.14 ERA between Triple-A Louisville and Double-A Pensacola. However, he is still 5-0 with a 3.61 ERA in eight career outings against the San Diego Padres. He'll be helped out by the fact the Padres are lighter on offense with Matt Kemp having been shipped off to the Atlanta Braves Saturday night. Journeyman Paul Clemens will oppose Bailey and the Reds, as he makes his fourth start of the season for his second different team.
Hottest team: Rockies (5-0 past five, 9-1 past 10)
The Rockies have won the first three games at Citi Field by a combined 15-4 score, and they go for the four-game sweep in Sunday's contest. It has been a successful road trip so far for the Rox, winning five of their first six. Who said Colorado only can play at Coors Field? Colorado has won four straight road games against a right-handed starter, and they're 5-0 in their past five games against a team with a winning record. They're also 4-0 in Chad Bettis' past four outings, and they're 7-0 in his past seven assignments against National League East foes. On the flip side, the Mets are 1-5 in their past six vs. RHP, and they're winless in five straight against the NL West.
RED SOX VS. ANGELS
PLAY: ANGELS +104
Tyler Skaggs, part two for me today. I played on Skaggs and the Angels in his return to the majors earlier this week, and I want to ride the talented southpaw again in this spot.
Skaggs, who had been nothing short of brilliant in his final two AAA rehab starts, looked outstanding in handling the Royals on Tuesday night. Granted, the Red Sox lineup is vastly superior to that of the Royals, and there?s always the chance of the bounce effect coming into play off such a sensational first game back for Skaggs.
But I think it?s fair to say that Skaggs is catching Boston at the right time. The Red Sox offense isn?t in hibernation, but it?s definitely snoozing. If I?m going to try and beat the Bosox, I?d certainly rather try to do so when they?re not mashing.
Steven Wright will be on the mound for the Red Sox, and the knuckleballer is off a very bad outing where he appeared to be bothered by the heat and humidity. Wright could not get a good grip and therefore could not command his best pitch. That meant he had to rely on his other offerings more, and let?s just say those aren?t big league level pitches. I think Wright has a good chance to bounce back in this game against a so-so Halos lineup.
I definitely input current team form into my numbers, and with the Red Sox in a funk while the Angels are playing well, I made the Halos -110 in this game. So I feel like I?m getting okay value and with a definite desire to follow Skaggs for at least one more start, I?m taking the Angels in this series finale.
Coldest pitcher: Matt Garza, Milwaukee (1-4, 5.74 ERA)
Garza has been terrible lately, going 0-2 with a 6.06 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over his past three outings. He has had difficulty striking out batters, whiffing just eight over the past 16 1/3 innings. To make matters worse Ryan Braun is banged up and the Brewers agreed to a deal to ship Jonathan Lucroy to the Cleveland Indians. A lack of offensive support, and poor pitching by Garza, certainly doesn't bode well for the Brewers.
Twins -120
Minnesota is showing great value here as a small home favorite against the White Sox in Sunday's series finale. The Twins have taken each of the first two games of the series and are in a prime spot to finish off the sweep.
The White Sox have scored just 1 run in each of their last 3 games and are hitting a miserable .214 over their last 7 games. Their struggles will continue against Ervin Santana, who has pitched much better than his 3-9 record would indicate. Santana has a 3.78 ERA and 1.242 WHIP in 19 starts and comes into this one with a 2.53 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in his last 3 outings.
Chicago will counter with the struggling Carlos Rodon, who is 2-7 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.532 WHIP in 16 starts. Rodon has really struggled of late, posting a 6.06 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Rodon will also be making his first start since coming back from the DL, so there's a good chance he won't be sharp in this one either.
White Sox are 2-8 in their last 10 road games, 3-9 in Rodon's last 12 starts and 3-9 in their last 12 against a right-handed starter. Twins are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series, 6-2 in their last 8 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 4-1 in their last 5 against a left-handed starter.
Kansas City @ TEXAS
Kansas City +116 over TEXAS
Dillon Gee owns an ugly 4.54 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over 67 innings, and given his long history of mediocrity, he won't generate much market interest today. That said, he has been better than his ERA and WHIP would seem to indicate with 7.4 K?s/9, 3.1 BB?s/9 and 42% groundballs. His command is decent and it is backed by a 10% swing and miss rate and 62% first pitch strike rate. Furthermore, Gee's road ERA is 3.71 and at times he has been lethal against RH bats. Still, Gee is a risk for sure, especially in this unforgiving park but this wager has nothing to do with backing Dillon Gee.
The Rangers brass figured that trading for Lucas Harrell would bolster their starting rotation. Harrell comes over from Atlanta (who are still laughing their heads off) for 2013 first-round pick Travis Demeritte. Harrell has pitched 29 innings this season. Prior, he?s pitched a grand total of three MLB innings since 2013. Since 2010, Harrell has been on five teams. His overall numbers are 18-33 with a 4.84 ERA and 268 career strikeouts. He also has 200 career walks to his name. Harrell?s last extended stay in the majors was in 2013, when he led the American league in losses (17) and walks (88) in 153 innings. In August of 2014, the Diamondbacks released him. Three months later in October, Harrell signed a one-year contract with Korea's LG Twins. When he returned from Korea, where he went 10-11 with a 4.93 ERA and 1.65 WHIP, Harrell was signed to a minor-league contract by the Tigers. Two months later, Detroit released him outright at which point the Braves signed him and immediately sent him to Gwinnett. At the end of all this, the Braves essentially got Harrell for zilch and turned that into an asset. Great job by Atlanta.
So yeah, Harrell has decent surface numbers this year over five starts but we?re not going to put any weight whatsoever on 29 innings after every pro team in America, Canada, and Korea wanted nothing to do with this stiff. Harrell still has shaky command. His 0.3% hr/f rate is unsustainable. Combine that with his even groundball/fly-ball ratio and it reveals that Harrell has been pitching with some good fortune. His first-pitch strike rate of 50% and swing and miss rate of 6% says he?ll be issuing some free passes today like he always does. This is not some hot-shot prospect pitching for the Rangers today. This is Lucas Harrell, a 31-year-old journeyman that can?t throw strikes and that has been cut, traded or released by every team he?s ever played for. Now he?s favored
Biggest UNDER run: Giants (7-3 past 10)
The 'under' has cashed in seven of the past 10 for San Francisco, and the under is also 7-3 in their past 10 games at home against left-handed starting pitching. The under is also 6-0 in the past six for the Giants against a team with a winning record, and 5-0 in their past five at home against a team with a winning road record. In addition, the under is 4-0 in the past four home games against the Nationals, and 4-0 in their past four overall. The under is also 4-1 for the Nationals in their past five starts by Gio Gonzalez against the Giants.
Washington vs. San Francisco
Pick: Washington
The Nationals won the first two of this four-game series but the Giants earned a 5-3 Saturday afternoon. Both teams are first-place clubs, the Nats leading the NL East by five games and the Giants leading the NL West by two games. The Nats are a modest 7-7 since the break but that is ?light years? ahead of the Giants, who are just 3-11 since play resumed, after heading into the break with MLB?s best overall record. Gio Gonzalez (6-8, 4.44 ERA) gets the nod for the Nats and Matt Cain (2-6, 5.95 ERA) takes the hill for the Giants.
Gonzalez has returned from the break to produce two quality starts, beating the Dodgers 8-1 on July 20 and then, despite surrendering just two ERs over 6.1 innings this past Tuesday at Cleveland, settled for a no decision in a 7-6 loss. The Nats are 8-12 in Gonzalez?s 20 starts of 2016 and that includes just 3-7 in his away starts. The left-hander is 3-3 with a 3.33 ERA in nine career starts against the Giants, with the Nats going 5-5. That?s hardly too encouraging but his mound opponent, Matt Cain, is still trying to find some form since coming off the DL.
Cain?s made just 13 starts this season , posting a 5.95 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and allowing opponents to bat .314 against him (Giants are 5-8 in his starts). He returned from the DL to make a July 20th start at Boston, only to last a modest 2.1 innings, allowing six hits (three HRs) and five ERs. He was slightly better at home vs Cincy in his next outing, allowing four ERs on six hits (another two HRs) in 5.1 innings. Cain owns a 5-5 record and 3.64 ERA in 15 career starts against the Nationals (Giants are 9-6) but was ripped for five runs in 4.2 innings at home against Washington back on Aug 14, 2015 (yielding home two HRs) in his last outing vs the Nats.
Cain is looking for his 100th career win in this game but the Giants are in a funk (3-11 since the break) plus Cain?s two starts since returning from the DL have resulted in him allowing nine ERs on 12 hits (including five HRs!) in just eight innings (10.13 ERA). No reason to expect Cain gets that 100th win here.
The Mariners turn to Felix Hernandez for the series win, going up against left-handed starter Brian Matusz. While Seattle has struggled on the road lately, going 8-19 in their past 27 away from the Emerald City and 3-8 in their past 11 against left-handed starting pitching, they're still 4-1 in King Felix's past five outings on the road and 6-2 in his past eight starts overall. The Cubs are playing slightly better lately, but they're still just 7-16 in their past 23 against a team with a winning record. However, they have won seven of their past 11 against American League teams. Seattle is also an impressive 10-4 in their past 14 interleague road games, and 11-5 in their past 16 against National League squads.
