7:30 PM CFB [210] TOTAL u59.5 -155 (B+2) (NOTRE DAME vrs TEXAS)
4:10 PM MLB [913] TOTAL o12.5 -119 (Arizona Diamondbacks vrs Colorado Rockies) (Bradley/Gray)
1:35 PM MLB [918] Baltimore Orioles -119 ( M Pineda - R / W Miley)
2:10 PM MLB [919] TOTAL o10-115 (Chicago White Sox vrs Minnesota Twins) (Ranaudo/Albers)
3:05 PM MLB [924] Texas Rangers -164 ( C McHugh - R / Y Darvish - R )
4:05 PM MLB [925] Boston Red Sox -126 ( E Rodriguez - L / K Graveman)
1 unit bet pays 29 ....betdsi line...last night yet another darn close-to-winning parlay...
MLB parlays: 14-150, -38.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24..
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Over is 21-6 in TB last 27 overall.
Over is 19-7-1 in ATL last 27 overall.
Over is 41-16-2 in MIN last 59 home games....Minnesota lost 14 of last 16 games; over is 11-1 in last 12 games at Target Field.
TEX are 45-18 in their last 63 home games....Texas won 11 of last 12 home games; over is 10-3-1 in their last 14 games.
Over is 38-15-2 in ARI last 55 overall.
Colorado Over is 11-5-1 in Grays last 17 home starts.
LAD are 37-17 in their last 54 home games.
It has been a tale of two halves for Chris Archer. The Tampa Bay Rays' ace registered a 4.76 ERA during the first half of the season as compared to a 3.16 since. His strikeout rate is virtually identical before and after July 1. The major improvements are a marked drop in walks from a 3.9 BB/9 to 2.1 BB/9 in tandem with fewer homers allowed. Archer will look to continue his strong second half, but it won't be easy as the Toronto Blue Jays close out a set at Tropicana Field. However, if Archer can manage to keep the ball in the yard, he could be in for a big day, as there's above average swing-and-miss in the Toronto lineup.
Toronto @ TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY +107 over Toronto
In eight games recently against the Twinkies, Angels and Rays, who are a combined 70 games under .500, Toronto is 4-4. However, they rallied from four down in two of three games against Minnesota and also rallied from three down in another victory. The Jays are actually fortunate that they are not 1-7 in those eight games. Now they?re favored on the road again because J.A. Happ is 17-4 with a 3.23 ERA so we?ll have a look at that. In 2009, Happ went 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA over 166 innings. That was by far his best year but it was also his rookie season so the league had not seen him much. In 2010, Happ made just 16 starts and pitched to a xERA of 4.62. His next full season was the following year in 2011 in which he went 6-15 in 28 starts with an ERA/xERA split of 5.35/4.71. From 2011 until 2015, Happ continued on his mediocre to below average career until this year. In 1012 career innings prior to this season, J.A. Happ went 62-61 with a 4.11/4.58 ERA/xERA split. Happ has been released, traded or signed by 10 teams over his eight years of service including the Blue Jays not once, but twice before. This is his third stint with Toronto.
Happ isn't much different than he's been the last few years. His 17 wins are greatly benefited by the 6.35 runs the Jays are averaging when he starts (4th highest in MLB). Hit and strand rates are on the favorable side and are the reason for the large gap between ERA & xERA. His first-pitch strike rate and Ball% erosion has resulted in some loss of control and may not have bottomed out yet so command gains are unlikely. Though Happ's ERA has ranged between 4.22 and 3.27 the last three years, his xERA has remained more tightly clustered around 4.50. Happ probably won't be able to maintain this production levels over the final month and should be "sold-high" when he does pitch. That Happ is favored in Tampa Bay over Chris Archer is incorrect.
Archer is 8-17 in 25 starts with a 4.10 ERA, which is more evidence of how ERA?s and W/L records can be so misleading. There are several reasons to lean toward the earlier version of Archer and not to pay attention to his surface stats. His first-pitch strike rate says not to worry about the 60 walks he?s issued in 169 frames. His elite swing and miss rate of 17% supports his K total of 202 in 169 innings. His groundball rate is also elite. Archer is equally dominant versus lefties as he is against righties. Archer?s strong dominant start/disaster starts trend and his reliability grades mitigate his risk. If luck factors are normal in this game, Rays should sweep because they have a giant edge on the hill and when the Jays aren?t hitting the ball over the fence, they are extremely beatable.
After being teased several times throughout the season, Los Angeles Dodgers prized prospect Jose De Leon is set to make his first career start Sunday at home against the San Diego Padres. It's a great spot for the rookie as the Friars tote the second worst wOBA versus righties for the past month along with being the easiest team for right-handers to punch out over that span. De Leon worked seven frames in each of his last three starts with Triple-A Oklahoma City, so there should be no concern with pitch counts.
The 24-year-old right-hander is MLBPipeline.com's No. 2 prospect in the Dodgers' system and No. 35 overall. He holds a 2.61 ERA in 16 starts and 111 strikeouts in 86 1/3 innings this season with Triple-A Oklahoma City. De Leon had his start to the season delayed due to an ankle injury and lost more time in May with right shoulder inflammation, but has had no issues in a second half in which he recorded a 2.38 ERA. "I haven't seen a lot, but I know he's got a very good fastball, he's got a plus change, and he's got a breaking ball to go along with his mix," manager Dave Roberts said.
SCOUTING REPORT
De Leon was born in Puerto Rico, went undrafted out of high school, then spent three seasons as Southern?s ace. The Dodgers nabbed him in the 24th round in 2013, and De Leon?s stock soared after he transformed his body and improved his stuff.
While he transformed his body, the biggest change?pardon the pun?the past two seasons for De Leon has been the improvement of his changeup. It?s at least a plus pitch?with some evaluators stamping it as a plus-plus offering?and one that gets batters off-balance and garners several swings and misses.
This year, however, De Leon?s fastball has again taken center stage. He can touch 95 mph with it when he needs, but most often sits 92-93 with tremendous spin rate and great, late life. He throws it to all quadrants and without elite velocity gets swings and misses, even when in what is generally considered a hitter?s hot zone. His slider is an average-to-tick-above pitch, with tight spin and three-quarters action.
it appears that current prices offer some value on the Yankees with Pineda vs. Miley today. Betances is fresh and although Brach and Britton are likely available they both pitched yesterday. Any reason to stay away from this one?
The issue would be one of a flat NYY offense, which overachieved for a while and came back to earth. I was hoping to use Pineda as part of a Baltimore Team Total Under notion, but needed to see 4.5 for that, and so far it has been difficult to come by. Part of what can make that works is that with Betances having had four straight days off, Joe Girardi may opt to get him an inning regardless of game situation, which could mean him working the bottom of the 8th trailing in the game, which is a positive for the concept. But I want 4 to be a "win" number.
Detroit at Kansas City
Play: Detroit +109
Detroit lost to the Royals last night but the Tigers still have won nine of their last 12 games and have the edge in this matchup with Daniel Norris against Edinson Volquez. Kansas City lost Volquez's last start against the Yankees when he allowed four runs and nine hits in just 3 1/3 innings. Volquez is 10-10 with a 5.01 ERA overall and he had a 6.37 ERA in August. Daniel Norris has given Detroit five or six solid innings his last five appearances and the Tigers have won his last two starts as he finished with nine strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings. In one outing against the Royals this season, Norris allowed two runs in 5 1/3 innings. The Tigers have won six of their last seven road games and Kansas City has lost six of its last eight home games versus left-handed starters.
Detroit vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City
The Royals had won 18 of 22 games from August 10th through the 29th before dropping three straight one-run contests (two in extra-innings), entering Saturday?s game with the Tigers. KC won 5-2 last night, which leaves the two-time defending AL champs four games back of the final wild card spot at 70-65. The 72-62 Tigers are three games better than the Royals and just one game back of the Orioles, who currently own the AL?s second wild card spot. The teams meet Sunday in the rubber match of this three-game series with Daniel Norris (2-2, 3.86 ERA) taking the mound for Detroit and Edinson Volquez (10-10, 5.01 ERA) for Kansas City.
Norris was acquired as part of the deal which sent David Price to Toronto back on July 30, 2015. He made eight starts for Detroit after that trade, going 2-1 with a 3.68, as the Tigers were 6-2. Detroit was counting on Norris in 2016 but he began the season on the disabled list due to a lower back issue suffered during spring training. He was recalled to the Tigers on May 11, 2016 but made only a one-inning appearance against the Baltimore Orioles on May 12 before being returned to AAA. Norris was recalled again on June 21 and made his first start of the 2016 season on June 23. However, after pitching two innings plus one batter in a July 4 start against the Cleveland Indians, Norris was removed from the game. He was later diagnosed with an oblique strain, the same injury he suffered in late 2015, and was placed on the disabled list for the third time in his career. Norris makes just his ninth start of 2016 in this one.
Volquez has endured a roller-coaster season, but he is 5-2 with a 4.21 ERA in 12 starts against AL Central opponents (Royals are 9-3!). He?s 3-4 with a 5.47 ERA in nine career starts against Detroit (Royals are 4-5) but that includes 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA in two outings this season. I?m backing KC on Sunday.
L.A. Angels @ SEATTLE
L.A. Angels +120 over SEATTLE
Matt Shoemaker watched his skills tail off in July after his electric May and June. However, Shoemaker is back to dominating again and that makes him playable again, especially when taking back a price. Shoemaker He has been one of the game's best starters recently. In his last game he went seven full without walking anyone and striking out seven. His overall groundball is creeping up and it is up from 40% to 50% over his last 10 starts. It was 65% in his last start. Shoemaker has walked a puny 30 batters in 159 innings this season. His xERA of 3.45 is also a top-15 mark in the AL.
Hisashi Iwakuma is another starter with good surface stats that has been on our fade radar all year long. However, much like Marco Estrada, Iwakuma?s success is all luck driven so he?ll continue to be a prime fade target. Iwakuma?s average velocity has dipped to 87 MPH. His swing and miss rate has fallen off to 7%. Iwakuma has 17 K?s over his last 28 innings with an xERA of 5.08. His 38%/22%/40% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is one that cannot play well at any park over time. Iwakuma?s struggles can be summed up in his 17%/25% dominant start/disaster start score over the last two seasons. Iwakuma is rarely dominant with a few disasters but in general what he brings is a whole lot of middle-of-the-road performances and now he?ll face one of the hottest offenses in the game. The Halos are batting .310 over the past 15 games, which is second in MLB over that span behind Boston?s .323. They are first in slugging percentage over that span at .551 with the Rangers, Rockies and Red Sox behind them.
The Mariners do not have an edge on the hill here, nor do they have an edge at the plate. The only edge the M?s have is home-field but that should not be enough to overcome the disadvantages here.
------------
NOTRE DAME VS. TEXAS
PLAY: NOTRE DAME -3.5
There?s no denying those off the field issues are a potential distraction for Notre Dame. It?s also an obviously enormous game for Texas on a variety of levels.
First, there?s the revenge motive. Texas didn?t just lose to Notre Dame last season, they were totally humiliated. I don?t doubt for a second that the Longhorns will be immensely focused for this battle.
There?s also the Charlie Strong factor. His coaching seat is way beyond hot. There doesn?t even seem to be any debate that anything less than a very successful season and a significant bowl game will mean the end of Strong?s tenure in Austin.
So I?m well aware of what?s at stake here, and I?ve also heard and read lots of the pre-season predictions that are calling for this to be a breakthrough campaign for the Longhorns.
I agree that Texas should be improved. But this was a 5-7 football team last year and they?re 10-14 the last two seasons. There?s a big difference between being better and rising to an elite level, and I?m just going to have to get convinced before I buy all the hype.
As for the Irish, the inexperience could be an early season factor, and as previously mentioned, I?m not dismissing the external issues. But this is still a loaded roster with some great athletes. This was also a team that just missed getting to the playoffs last year. They lost at the gun on a Stanford field goal, and if that kick misses the Irish are one of the Final Four. Their two regular season losses were by a total of four points and came against Clemson and Stanford, two of the best teams in the country. I?m not sure Notre Dame is down much at all, and even if there?s a slight decline, they still rate well ahead of Texas on my numbers.
Some sharp dollars showed up early on Texas and maybe they?re going to turn out to be as good as advertised. But I am going to trust the data and back Notre Dame. It?s not a big enough difference on my numbers to justify wagering a full unit, but I also don?t want to sit this game out. I decided to split the difference and play on Notre Dame minus the points.
Notre Dame vs. Texas
Play: Under 59
Texas will be looking to prove that last year was an anomaly and that they are a better team than their 5-7 record indicated. Apparently the attitude is on point in camp and we expect to see improvement ? but not on the offensive end. More effort and intensity will lead to stops on defense, but they are still working with the same tools on offense and look weak at QB. The Longhorns will again look to gain yards on the ground behind an experienced O Line, which will run plenty of clock.
Notre Dame is solid defensively and shouldn?t have too many difficulties with a one dimensional Longhorns attack. The Longhorns likely can?t win this game in a shoot out situation, so they will look to grind out the game and hope to be within striking distance in the 4th. This total looks too high and we?ll take the UNDER.
Under is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last 5 vs. Big 12. Under is 5-2 in Fighting Irish last 7 games in September. Under is 23-10 in Longhorns last 33 games overall.
4:10 PM MLB [913] TOTAL o12.5 -119 (Arizona Diamondbacks vrs Colorado Rockies) (Bradley/Gray)
1:35 PM MLB [918] Baltimore Orioles -119 ( M Pineda - R / W Miley)
2:10 PM MLB [919] TOTAL o10-115 (Chicago White Sox vrs Minnesota Twins) (Ranaudo/Albers)
3:05 PM MLB [924] Texas Rangers -164 ( C McHugh - R / Y Darvish - R )
4:05 PM MLB [925] Boston Red Sox -126 ( E Rodriguez - L / K Graveman)
1 unit bet pays 29 ....betdsi line...last night yet another darn close-to-winning parlay...
MLB parlays: 14-150, -38.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24..
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Over is 21-6 in TB last 27 overall.
Over is 19-7-1 in ATL last 27 overall.
Over is 41-16-2 in MIN last 59 home games....Minnesota lost 14 of last 16 games; over is 11-1 in last 12 games at Target Field.
TEX are 45-18 in their last 63 home games....Texas won 11 of last 12 home games; over is 10-3-1 in their last 14 games.
Over is 38-15-2 in ARI last 55 overall.
Colorado Over is 11-5-1 in Grays last 17 home starts.
LAD are 37-17 in their last 54 home games.
It has been a tale of two halves for Chris Archer. The Tampa Bay Rays' ace registered a 4.76 ERA during the first half of the season as compared to a 3.16 since. His strikeout rate is virtually identical before and after July 1. The major improvements are a marked drop in walks from a 3.9 BB/9 to 2.1 BB/9 in tandem with fewer homers allowed. Archer will look to continue his strong second half, but it won't be easy as the Toronto Blue Jays close out a set at Tropicana Field. However, if Archer can manage to keep the ball in the yard, he could be in for a big day, as there's above average swing-and-miss in the Toronto lineup.
Toronto @ TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY +107 over Toronto
In eight games recently against the Twinkies, Angels and Rays, who are a combined 70 games under .500, Toronto is 4-4. However, they rallied from four down in two of three games against Minnesota and also rallied from three down in another victory. The Jays are actually fortunate that they are not 1-7 in those eight games. Now they?re favored on the road again because J.A. Happ is 17-4 with a 3.23 ERA so we?ll have a look at that. In 2009, Happ went 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA over 166 innings. That was by far his best year but it was also his rookie season so the league had not seen him much. In 2010, Happ made just 16 starts and pitched to a xERA of 4.62. His next full season was the following year in 2011 in which he went 6-15 in 28 starts with an ERA/xERA split of 5.35/4.71. From 2011 until 2015, Happ continued on his mediocre to below average career until this year. In 1012 career innings prior to this season, J.A. Happ went 62-61 with a 4.11/4.58 ERA/xERA split. Happ has been released, traded or signed by 10 teams over his eight years of service including the Blue Jays not once, but twice before. This is his third stint with Toronto.
Happ isn't much different than he's been the last few years. His 17 wins are greatly benefited by the 6.35 runs the Jays are averaging when he starts (4th highest in MLB). Hit and strand rates are on the favorable side and are the reason for the large gap between ERA & xERA. His first-pitch strike rate and Ball% erosion has resulted in some loss of control and may not have bottomed out yet so command gains are unlikely. Though Happ's ERA has ranged between 4.22 and 3.27 the last three years, his xERA has remained more tightly clustered around 4.50. Happ probably won't be able to maintain this production levels over the final month and should be "sold-high" when he does pitch. That Happ is favored in Tampa Bay over Chris Archer is incorrect.
Archer is 8-17 in 25 starts with a 4.10 ERA, which is more evidence of how ERA?s and W/L records can be so misleading. There are several reasons to lean toward the earlier version of Archer and not to pay attention to his surface stats. His first-pitch strike rate says not to worry about the 60 walks he?s issued in 169 frames. His elite swing and miss rate of 17% supports his K total of 202 in 169 innings. His groundball rate is also elite. Archer is equally dominant versus lefties as he is against righties. Archer?s strong dominant start/disaster starts trend and his reliability grades mitigate his risk. If luck factors are normal in this game, Rays should sweep because they have a giant edge on the hill and when the Jays aren?t hitting the ball over the fence, they are extremely beatable.
After being teased several times throughout the season, Los Angeles Dodgers prized prospect Jose De Leon is set to make his first career start Sunday at home against the San Diego Padres. It's a great spot for the rookie as the Friars tote the second worst wOBA versus righties for the past month along with being the easiest team for right-handers to punch out over that span. De Leon worked seven frames in each of his last three starts with Triple-A Oklahoma City, so there should be no concern with pitch counts.
The 24-year-old right-hander is MLBPipeline.com's No. 2 prospect in the Dodgers' system and No. 35 overall. He holds a 2.61 ERA in 16 starts and 111 strikeouts in 86 1/3 innings this season with Triple-A Oklahoma City. De Leon had his start to the season delayed due to an ankle injury and lost more time in May with right shoulder inflammation, but has had no issues in a second half in which he recorded a 2.38 ERA. "I haven't seen a lot, but I know he's got a very good fastball, he's got a plus change, and he's got a breaking ball to go along with his mix," manager Dave Roberts said.
SCOUTING REPORT
De Leon was born in Puerto Rico, went undrafted out of high school, then spent three seasons as Southern?s ace. The Dodgers nabbed him in the 24th round in 2013, and De Leon?s stock soared after he transformed his body and improved his stuff.
While he transformed his body, the biggest change?pardon the pun?the past two seasons for De Leon has been the improvement of his changeup. It?s at least a plus pitch?with some evaluators stamping it as a plus-plus offering?and one that gets batters off-balance and garners several swings and misses.
This year, however, De Leon?s fastball has again taken center stage. He can touch 95 mph with it when he needs, but most often sits 92-93 with tremendous spin rate and great, late life. He throws it to all quadrants and without elite velocity gets swings and misses, even when in what is generally considered a hitter?s hot zone. His slider is an average-to-tick-above pitch, with tight spin and three-quarters action.
it appears that current prices offer some value on the Yankees with Pineda vs. Miley today. Betances is fresh and although Brach and Britton are likely available they both pitched yesterday. Any reason to stay away from this one?
The issue would be one of a flat NYY offense, which overachieved for a while and came back to earth. I was hoping to use Pineda as part of a Baltimore Team Total Under notion, but needed to see 4.5 for that, and so far it has been difficult to come by. Part of what can make that works is that with Betances having had four straight days off, Joe Girardi may opt to get him an inning regardless of game situation, which could mean him working the bottom of the 8th trailing in the game, which is a positive for the concept. But I want 4 to be a "win" number.
Detroit at Kansas City
Play: Detroit +109
Detroit lost to the Royals last night but the Tigers still have won nine of their last 12 games and have the edge in this matchup with Daniel Norris against Edinson Volquez. Kansas City lost Volquez's last start against the Yankees when he allowed four runs and nine hits in just 3 1/3 innings. Volquez is 10-10 with a 5.01 ERA overall and he had a 6.37 ERA in August. Daniel Norris has given Detroit five or six solid innings his last five appearances and the Tigers have won his last two starts as he finished with nine strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings. In one outing against the Royals this season, Norris allowed two runs in 5 1/3 innings. The Tigers have won six of their last seven road games and Kansas City has lost six of its last eight home games versus left-handed starters.
Detroit vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City
The Royals had won 18 of 22 games from August 10th through the 29th before dropping three straight one-run contests (two in extra-innings), entering Saturday?s game with the Tigers. KC won 5-2 last night, which leaves the two-time defending AL champs four games back of the final wild card spot at 70-65. The 72-62 Tigers are three games better than the Royals and just one game back of the Orioles, who currently own the AL?s second wild card spot. The teams meet Sunday in the rubber match of this three-game series with Daniel Norris (2-2, 3.86 ERA) taking the mound for Detroit and Edinson Volquez (10-10, 5.01 ERA) for Kansas City.
Norris was acquired as part of the deal which sent David Price to Toronto back on July 30, 2015. He made eight starts for Detroit after that trade, going 2-1 with a 3.68, as the Tigers were 6-2. Detroit was counting on Norris in 2016 but he began the season on the disabled list due to a lower back issue suffered during spring training. He was recalled to the Tigers on May 11, 2016 but made only a one-inning appearance against the Baltimore Orioles on May 12 before being returned to AAA. Norris was recalled again on June 21 and made his first start of the 2016 season on June 23. However, after pitching two innings plus one batter in a July 4 start against the Cleveland Indians, Norris was removed from the game. He was later diagnosed with an oblique strain, the same injury he suffered in late 2015, and was placed on the disabled list for the third time in his career. Norris makes just his ninth start of 2016 in this one.
Volquez has endured a roller-coaster season, but he is 5-2 with a 4.21 ERA in 12 starts against AL Central opponents (Royals are 9-3!). He?s 3-4 with a 5.47 ERA in nine career starts against Detroit (Royals are 4-5) but that includes 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA in two outings this season. I?m backing KC on Sunday.
L.A. Angels @ SEATTLE
L.A. Angels +120 over SEATTLE
Matt Shoemaker watched his skills tail off in July after his electric May and June. However, Shoemaker is back to dominating again and that makes him playable again, especially when taking back a price. Shoemaker He has been one of the game's best starters recently. In his last game he went seven full without walking anyone and striking out seven. His overall groundball is creeping up and it is up from 40% to 50% over his last 10 starts. It was 65% in his last start. Shoemaker has walked a puny 30 batters in 159 innings this season. His xERA of 3.45 is also a top-15 mark in the AL.
Hisashi Iwakuma is another starter with good surface stats that has been on our fade radar all year long. However, much like Marco Estrada, Iwakuma?s success is all luck driven so he?ll continue to be a prime fade target. Iwakuma?s average velocity has dipped to 87 MPH. His swing and miss rate has fallen off to 7%. Iwakuma has 17 K?s over his last 28 innings with an xERA of 5.08. His 38%/22%/40% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is one that cannot play well at any park over time. Iwakuma?s struggles can be summed up in his 17%/25% dominant start/disaster start score over the last two seasons. Iwakuma is rarely dominant with a few disasters but in general what he brings is a whole lot of middle-of-the-road performances and now he?ll face one of the hottest offenses in the game. The Halos are batting .310 over the past 15 games, which is second in MLB over that span behind Boston?s .323. They are first in slugging percentage over that span at .551 with the Rangers, Rockies and Red Sox behind them.
The Mariners do not have an edge on the hill here, nor do they have an edge at the plate. The only edge the M?s have is home-field but that should not be enough to overcome the disadvantages here.
------------
NOTRE DAME VS. TEXAS
PLAY: NOTRE DAME -3.5
There?s no denying those off the field issues are a potential distraction for Notre Dame. It?s also an obviously enormous game for Texas on a variety of levels.
First, there?s the revenge motive. Texas didn?t just lose to Notre Dame last season, they were totally humiliated. I don?t doubt for a second that the Longhorns will be immensely focused for this battle.
There?s also the Charlie Strong factor. His coaching seat is way beyond hot. There doesn?t even seem to be any debate that anything less than a very successful season and a significant bowl game will mean the end of Strong?s tenure in Austin.
So I?m well aware of what?s at stake here, and I?ve also heard and read lots of the pre-season predictions that are calling for this to be a breakthrough campaign for the Longhorns.
I agree that Texas should be improved. But this was a 5-7 football team last year and they?re 10-14 the last two seasons. There?s a big difference between being better and rising to an elite level, and I?m just going to have to get convinced before I buy all the hype.
As for the Irish, the inexperience could be an early season factor, and as previously mentioned, I?m not dismissing the external issues. But this is still a loaded roster with some great athletes. This was also a team that just missed getting to the playoffs last year. They lost at the gun on a Stanford field goal, and if that kick misses the Irish are one of the Final Four. Their two regular season losses were by a total of four points and came against Clemson and Stanford, two of the best teams in the country. I?m not sure Notre Dame is down much at all, and even if there?s a slight decline, they still rate well ahead of Texas on my numbers.
Some sharp dollars showed up early on Texas and maybe they?re going to turn out to be as good as advertised. But I am going to trust the data and back Notre Dame. It?s not a big enough difference on my numbers to justify wagering a full unit, but I also don?t want to sit this game out. I decided to split the difference and play on Notre Dame minus the points.
Notre Dame vs. Texas
Play: Under 59
Texas will be looking to prove that last year was an anomaly and that they are a better team than their 5-7 record indicated. Apparently the attitude is on point in camp and we expect to see improvement ? but not on the offensive end. More effort and intensity will lead to stops on defense, but they are still working with the same tools on offense and look weak at QB. The Longhorns will again look to gain yards on the ground behind an experienced O Line, which will run plenty of clock.
Notre Dame is solid defensively and shouldn?t have too many difficulties with a one dimensional Longhorns attack. The Longhorns likely can?t win this game in a shoot out situation, so they will look to grind out the game and hope to be within striking distance in the 4th. This total looks too high and we?ll take the UNDER.
Under is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last 5 vs. Big 12. Under is 5-2 in Fighting Irish last 7 games in September. Under is 23-10 in Longhorns last 33 games overall.
