3:35 PM MLB [923] Detroit Tigers -123 ( J Verlander - R / A Meyer)
2:10 PM MLB [930] Chicago White Sox -200 ( J Weaver - R /Quintana)
2:05 PM MLB [934] New York Yankees -160 ( ACTION /L Severino - R )
2:00 PM SOC [201842] Villarreal -225 (soccer - La Liga)
7:30 PM NHL [5] Nashville Predators +1.5 -300
3:30 PM NBA [501] San Antonio Spurs +12-150 (B+2)
1:10 PM MLB [901] Atlanta Braves +122 ( R Dickey - R/ ACTION )
3:10 PM MLB [9910] Colorado Rockies -1.5 +210 ( J Urias/Senzatela)
1 unit bet pays 97 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Mariners vs. Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -137
Toronto finally has gotten on track after a horrible start to the season and won four straight and six of its last seven after its 7-2 win over the Mariners on Saturday. The Blue Jays now have won six of the last seven meetings with Seattle, which has scored a total of only four runs the first three games of this series. Aaron Sanchez will pitch for the first time since April 30 due to a finger injury, but he threw 60 pitches this week and reported no problems. Ariel Miranda got pounded for eight runs in 3 1/3 innings at Philadelphia on Tuesday but the Mariners somehow pulled out a 10-9 win. Miranda's road ERA now is 8.10 this year while allowing 15 runs and 20 hits in 16 2/3 innings. Seattle is 7-15 away from home and Toronto has won seven of its last eight at home.
Twins vs. Indians
Play: Twins +142
I am shocked to see the Twins this big of underdogs after taking the first two games of the series from the Indians, and I think they have a ton of value in this one. Hector Santiago has always pitched well early in the season and that is the case again this year. He comes into this game with a 4-1 record and a 2.76 ERA this season. He has total control over all of his pitches this year and it shows in the record.
For the Indians it's Trevor Bauer on the mound and he hasn't gotten off to the greatest start. He comes into this game with a 2-4 record and an ERA of 7.36. He has given up four or more runs in five of his six games this year. The Twins come into this game with a ton of confidence and feel like they can play with anyone and I don't see that changing in this game. Some trends to note. Twins are 5-0 in their last 5 road games. Indians are 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Padres vs. White Sox
Play: Padres +180
Tremendous line value here. Yes, the Padres certainly aren't a powerhouse but the White Sox had lost 9 of their last 11 games before just getting by San Diego in a tight one-run win yesterday. The ChiSox appear to have a huge pitching edge on the mound here but when you dig a little deeper you see something different. The White Sox will have Jose Quintana on the mound and his strikeout numbers were down in his most recent start even though he faced the free-swinging Orioles. Also, he gave up 9 hits and 3 walks in only 5 innings of work. As for the Padres Jered Weaver, certainly his overall numbers do not impress but he has actually pitched better away from San Diego this season. Surprisingly he has a 1.15 WHIP away from home in his 4 road starts this season! Also, confidence means a lot in sports and Weaver is 12-2 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in his 15 career starts against the White Sox. In NFL you'll hear the expression "On any given Sunday" when someone refers to the potential of an upset. This is certainly one of those situations (MLB style) because the Padres and Weaver offer great odds here considering the upset potential they have here.
Dodgers vs. Rockies
Play: Rockies +125
Two excellent pitching prospects go at it today at Coors Field: Julio Urias for the Dodgers versus the Rockies' Antonio Senzatela.
Senzatela was the NL Rookie of the Month for April. Colorado is 6-1 in his seven starts. Senzatela has proven so far he can pitch at Coors Field, the premier hitter's park in the majors, going 3-1 with a 3.12 ERA there.
Coors is a tough place for any pitcher especially a young one. Urias is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. But he is unproven at Coors and the Dodgers are laying a price here. Urias pitched twice against Colorado during his rookie season last year, including one start, posting a 5.39 ERA. The Dodgers have never seen Senzatela.
I trust Senzatela more in this spot. Colorado also has had the better bullpen although both teams have strong closers.
The Rockies have a winning home record. The Dodgers have a losing road mark if you take out the games Clayton Kershaw has pitched. Colorado is 9-5 versus southpaws. Urias is the fourth straight lefty the Rockies are facing.
Senzatela has had a quality start in all but one of his outings. Opponents are batting just .228 against him. This start could be the most emotional of his career coming on Mother's Day. Senzatela was extremely close to his mother, Nidya, who died from stomach cancer July 24. Senzatela honors his late mother by putting her rosary beads in his uniform pocket whenever he starts.
Play: Rockies +118
I like the value here with Colorado as a home dog against the Dodgers. The Rockies are going to be motivated here to salvage a split in the finale of this 4-game series against LA and I like their chances of doing just that. Colorado will send out Antonio Senzatela, who has been a big surprise early on. Senzatela is 5-1 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.068 WHIP in 7 starts (6-1 team record) and has pitched well at Coors Field, which is no easy task. The Dodgers will counter with Julio Urias, who has a sensational 1.06 ERA in 3 starts, but will be making his first ever start at Coors Field and I look for him to struggle in this one. LA is just 1-4 dating back to last season in Urias' last 5 road starts against a team with a winning record and the Rockies are 9-3 in their last 12 home games against a left-handed starter and 10-2 in their last 12 after being held to 2 runs or less in their previous game.
New York at Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee +139
You ride the wave till it crashes around you. The Brewers were suppose to stink it up on offense without their star Ryan Braun, but someone forgot to tell the rest of the team. The Brewers are on a monster run, and just waxed the Mets 11-4 on Saturday and now are an underdog of this size at home because deGrom is pitching for the Mets, whose ERA is not all that impressive, and the Mets allow a whopping 6.60 runs on the road this year? Well I am going against the public on this one. I will take the Brewers as a home dog today on a 5-1 run, and I think they sweep the Mets in this series on Sunday.
Nothing much to think about today at Miller Park, as the Mets and the Brewers conclude their weekend set with another Over.
11 runs on Friday - Over the total.
15 runs on Saturday - Over the total.
Series has seen the last 4 meetings play Over the total.
The Mets are now 23-7-5 Over the total for the season, while the Brewers are 23-13-1 Over the total for the year.
The Mets are 2-0-1 the last 3 times Jacob de Grom has started, while the Brewers have seen 2 of Wily Peralta's last 3 starts land Over the total.
No other choice.
Mets-Brewers Over.
5* N.Y METS-MILWAUKEE OVER
I nailed my free play last night on the Minnesota Twins, against the Cleveland Indians, and today I like the Milwaukee Brewers as the home pup against the New York Mets. I'm not bothering listing pitchers, either.
Don't be surprised if this game stays low, as the Mets are hoping to avoid a sweep, and the only way to do so is neutralize the suddenly hot Brewers lineup.
Personally, I like Milwaukee because of its offense, which now leads the National League with 59 home runs while ranking third in runs scored (181), and second in slugging percentage (.466).
They've put up 18 runs against the Mets so far, and will be aiming for the knockout punch.
But enough about offense, because sweeps on Sundays are tougher than usual. Instead, I'm going on resiliency and the fact the Mets have lost three in a row.
Take the Brew Crew here, as the game will be tight, but Milwaukee will prevail.
New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers
Jacob deGrom vs. Wily Peralta
UNDER 8.5 (-105)
The Mets? season up to this point has been messy if nothing else, but lost in all the hysteria and panic of their 16-19 start has been the continued solid work from ace Jacob deGrom, who has provided a very important presence on the club?s starting pitching staff amidst all their several key injuries.
Not only has deGrom been piling up the strikeouts ? in fact, he?s second in the National League in K?s behind only Max Scherzer ? but the 28-year-old former NL Rookie of the Year has also been racking up quality starts, registering five in his first seven tries, while yielding three runs or fewer in all but one of his assignments.
deGrom has displayed impressive consistency despite an unfriendly 1.34 WHIP, but his success may continue nonetheless opposite a Brewers lineup that strikes out in bunches. Entering Sunday?s action, actually, they?ve struck out the third-most times (342) in all of baseball.
Thus, that can be something very advantageous for deGrom, not to mention the fact he owns nifty numbers against the Brew Crew. In five career meetings with Milwaukee, deGrom is 3-1 with a 2.32 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and a 28/7 K/BB ratio over 31 total innings. Furthermore, he hasn?t allowed a single run in two career outings at Miller Park, where he is a perfect 2-0 with a 0.70 WHIP and .160 batting average against to go along with that spotless 0.00 ERA.
That brings us to Brewers right-hander Wily Peralta, a guy who can be erratic at times, but also someone capable of being helpful for an under bet when the line is as high as 8.5.
Sometimes in bets like this one, and when one of the starters is an ace-caliber pitcher like we have here with deGrom, you just want the opponent to be an innings-eater who can get you into a position late in the ballgame for an under, and that?s the role Peralta can play here.
The six-year veteran has pitched into the sixth inning in five of his seven starts, allowing more than four runs only once. That can be crucial if he provides a similar effort this afternoon because if we get the desirable standout performance from deGrom, Peralta is capable of doing the rest until the Brewers? above-average bullpen gets involved.
It should also help that the Mets are suddenly scuffling again, having lost their last three. When that?s happening, and especially with the kind of season they?ve specifically been having, guys start to press more at the plate, and that?s something Peralta can capitalize on in recording a decent stat line. Taking that all into account, the under looks like it can deliver on this Mother?s Day afternoon.
My free winner for Sunday is exactly the same play as I delivered on Saturday with my premium selection, as I like the Texas Rangers.
I really like what I've seen from the Rangers of late, as they are playing their best baseball right now. They've won five straight after scoring their second straight victory over these Oakland A's, a 6-5 win.
This is a team that has shown plenty of resiliency, even dating back to last season, making its way into the latter innings with plenty of vigor. The other night they scored five unanswered to win 5-2 over the San Diego Padres. Last night, trailing 4-2, the Rangers posted four in the bottom of the seventh and then held on for a 6-5 win.
Oakland arrived in Arlington to start a six-game trek, and the A's just aren't a team to look at while they're traveling. Oakland just went 2-7 on their last road trip, going 0-3 against the Angels in Anaheim, 1-2 against the Astros in Houston and 1-2 against the Twins in Minnesota.
Oakland is now 5-12 on the road this season.
My money is on Texas here, as the price is cheap and the situation is right for the Rangers.
Oakland +114 over TEXAS
Texas has been contenders for a few years while Oakland has been irrelevant for just as long. The Rangers are known for scoring runs in bunches with several front-line players over the years while the casual fan that does not live in the Bay area probably couldn?t name two players that are on the current A?s roster. Furthermore, the Rangers are heating up with five wins in a row, including the first two games of this series while the A?s have five wins in 17 road games. Finally, A.J. Griffin is 4-0 with a 2.67 ERA and is 3-0 over his past three starts with a 0.45 ERA while Kendall Gravemen is 0-2 over his last three starts with an ERA of 5.45. One would be hard-pressed to make a case for the A?s today, yet they are the smallest dog on the board. Why? Every favorite today is priced higher than Texas so chalk bettors will likely be pounding the Rangers today and that?s precisely what this line is begging you to do. Be very cautious if you were thinking Texas today.
Linesmakers are gambling today that A.J. Griffin?s strong start comes to a halt. Griffin has a nifty BB/K split of 6/27 in 29 innings. That outstanding control has the support of his 73% first-pitch strike rate but his 27 K?s in 29 innings does not have the support of his 9% swing and miss rate. Griffin has only thrown 400 MLB innings over the past five years. He needed a Rust-Oleum break last May for shoulder stiffness and then pitched creakily in the rotation the rest of the year. Recent repairs (2104 TJS, 2015 shoulder) and poor results kept his run times short (5 IP/start). He also had 2nd half struggles last year with a line-drive jump to 38%. The 29 innings this year are nice but the bigger picture says this warm recovery is still in progress and some blowups are forthcoming. Again, oddsmakers are betting on Kendall Gravemen having a much better game than A. J. Griffin and/or the A?s offense doing the same. That?s good enough for us.
CHICAGO -1? +104 over San Diego
Jose Quintana is the South Side's proficient, easily-projected lefty. He continues to throw strikes with just enough swing-and-miss stuff and with little regard to batters' handedness or batted ball outcomes. Quintana has a BB/K split of 19/41 in 42 frames to go along with an identical ERA/xERA split of 4.46. It?s not great but he?s had four starts out of seven in which he?s allowed three runs or less in six innings or more. While this may be as good as it gets for him, we don?t need him to be great here. All we need is for Quintana to be his usual reliable and boring self, as this one is all about fading Jered Weaver.
Weaver?s ERA is 6.81 after seven starts. Over his past two starts covering seven innings, Weaver has been tagged for 16 hits and 17 runs. He?s surrendered two jacks or more in all of his starts this year but one and the Padres are 0-7 in his seven starts. Since 2010, as his fastball velocity slid from 90 to its current 82 MPH, his xERA rose from 3.46 to the nightmare he posted last year and continues to post this year. When you throw that slowly with so many fly balls, giving up the 15 bombs in 35 innings that Weaver has given up this year seems inevitable. It's never good when your ERA could be a Boeing aircraft model. Of course, it'd be helpful if he would miss a bat now and again but he doesn?t. Weaver is batting practice out there. His home park is irrelevant and so is he. Weaver will get hit in the mountains, to the prairies, to the oceans, white... well, you get the idea. Fade until he fades away.
In the Sights, Sunday MLB?
I don?t believe either Jeremy Hellickson or Gio Gonzalez are anywhere near what their base bottom lines for 2017 show, and Game #1 in Washingotn brings an awkward setting for the bullpens, a night-to-day affair after 10 relievers combined to throw 153 pitches on Saturday. So that will get me to #904 Washington/Philadelphia Over (1:35 Eastern), with 8.5 commonly available in the early trading.
The Hellickson story has been told here before in cashing a Cubs Run Line ticket against him, but Gonzalez comes close to matching him in terms of 2017 good fortunate ? he has managed a 3-1/2.64 despite being at a career-low rate in K% and GB%, and his second-worst in BB% and SWS%. So let?s set some perspective by looking at what a big chunk of the marketplace sees, compared to the realities of some key pitching metrics ?
W/L ERA FIP xFIP SIERA
Hellickson 4-1 3.49 5.33 5.42 5.30
Gonzalez 3-1 2.64 4.98 4.77 4.84
Those are significant gaps. The Nationals read Hellickson well in Philadelphia earlier in the week, forcing him out to 21.0 PPI, and a quick second look won?t help a guy with good control, but simply limited stuff (K% sitting at a dangerously low 10.7, dead last of the 123 pitchers that have worked at least 30 innings).
There is naturally some concern over lineups for a setting like this one, but since there is a gap between games, and both teams are off tomorrow, we may see the key cogs play in both. I am going to go ahead and get locked in at 8.5, since there appears to be some Over money in the marketplace.
Two of the top teams in the American League meet up on Sunday Night Baseball, as the Houston Astros visit the New York Yankees on primetime television. A good pitching matchup tilts towards the Astros because of the plus odds offered on the side.
Charlie Morton has transformed himself into a power pitcher at the age of 33, bringing the heat in the mid-90?s now as his career average fastball is at 91.6 mph. He?s always been good at getting ground balls, which is always a plus in this age of upper-cut swings for batters. It has kept his HR/FB% down at 10% to start the year. But really, it is Morton?s velocity that is the story here, as he is a completely new pitcher at this point. Old scouting reports go out the window, he can get away with more mistakes, and his K/9 rate of 9.98 is well above his career average.
It will be tough to fade Masahiro Tanaka in this game, but that is what I am about to do here. Tanaka has won 5 straight decisions coming into this matchup, even with a season ERA of 4.36 that is just about average. He?s benefitted from outstanding offensive support ? helping him overcome a batting average allowed against right-handers of .296. This game should be a toss-up and we are getting plus odds on one side, which is why I will be taking the Houston Astros at +123 on the moneyline as one of my Sunday MLB Picks of the Day.
Free MLB Pick: Houston +123
Pitchers to stream
Vince Velasquez (R), 34 percent ownership in ESPN leagues, Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals: Really? Stream against the Nationals? Hear me out. This looks to be the second game of a doubleheader, so Washington is likely to use their reserves. Facing Max Scherzer isn't ideal, but if you're looking for some last-minute whiffs, Velasquez can deliver.
A.J. Griffin (R), 45 percent, Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics: Griffin is coming off a rare complete game effort, blanking the Padres on four hits in Petco Park. For the season, Griffin has issued only four free passes; one per start.
Dan Straily (R), 12 percent, Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: As expected, the upgrade to a better home pitching park has agreed with Straily. Sunday, he and the Fish entertain the Braves, who will tote the second-lowest weighted on base average (wOBA) against right-handers into Marlins Park.
Trevor Bauer (R), 18 percent, Cleveland Indians vs. Minnesota Twins: The Twins are dangerous versus right-handers, but they're also among the league leaders in this scenario. If you're ratios are in peril, consider looking elsewhere, whiffs and a potential win are in play.
Pitchers to avoid
Masahiro Tanaka (R), 98 percent, New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros: It's hard to recommend reserving someone as talented as Tanaka, but he hasn't been sharp and this is a dangerous matchup. The Astros sport the fifth-best wOBA versus right-handers. Their strikeouts are down, and they possess several hitters capable of taking the homer-prone hurler out of Yankee Stadium.
In the Sights, Sunday NBA?
With the game-day markets lowering Golden State to -9.5, with the Total heading to 211.5, the fist good 212 has hit the board, that opens up a door that I believe works here - #501 San Antonio Team Total Under (3:30 Eastern), with 100.5 having become available.
This series has a chance to become more of a grinder than the market anticipation, and Pops will certainly prefer that, doing what he can to get a slow tempo so that his defense can get back and get set, rather than having the Warriors attack in the open court. But I believe the Spurs have an issue on offense, as noted in the lead the fact that Kawhi Leonard has to run up against a defense that is as well set to slow him down as any in the league, and it isn?t just a matter of his points production, but the fact that without Tony Parker so much of the offense has to run through him.
Golden State?s defense has been dynamic through the first two rounds, not only leading all playoff teams by a wide margin in allowing 96.9 PP100 (no one else lower than 101.5), but also rating #1 in DREB% at 82.1 as well. I think we are going to see a lot of San Antonio possessions going deep into the shot clock and ending with low-percentage shots, and the Warriors doing a good job of cleaning the boards off of the misses.
For Sunday, let's go with the well-rested Golden State Warriors to come out and make a home court statement against the banged-up and weary San Antonio Spurs.
San Antonio "rested" Kawhi Leonard in a gamble of a move on Thursday, and it paid off handsomely as the Spurs torched the Rockets on their home floor by 29-points to close out their semifinal series.
Their reward? Taking on a Warriors team that has won all 8 of their postseason games, and has been idle since Monday when they won and covered at Utah to complete their latest postseason sweep.
The Warriors have covered their last pair this postseason, and have covered in 5 of their 8 wins. They did drop 2 of the 3 regular season series meetings, but their one win was in the most recent meeting at the end of March.
With Parker out, and Leonard likely not at 100%, side with the Dubs for the drub!
4* GOLDEN STATE
Predators vs. Ducks
Play: Over 5
Nashville was attacking all night in Game 1 putting up 46 shots in a 3-2 win. Their defensemen lead the NHL postseason in goals scored. Anaheim is down 0-1 and will have to open things up offensively in this key game for them. Anaheim is on a 4-1-1 run over the total and the over is 20-7-9 when these teams clash, including 15-6-5 over at Anaheim.
Deportivo Coruna at Villarreal 2pm ET - La Liga
Play: Villarreal -1
Villa have won 3 straight at home and 4 of 5 and prior to last seasons home defeat to Coruna that had won the previous 5 while not conceding. Coruna have dropped 3 of 4 but sit 5 points and seemingly safe from relegation this season. Villareal to get the home win and clean sheet today.
2:10 PM MLB [930] Chicago White Sox -200 ( J Weaver - R /Quintana)
2:05 PM MLB [934] New York Yankees -160 ( ACTION /L Severino - R )
2:00 PM SOC [201842] Villarreal -225 (soccer - La Liga)
7:30 PM NHL [5] Nashville Predators +1.5 -300
3:30 PM NBA [501] San Antonio Spurs +12-150 (B+2)
1:10 PM MLB [901] Atlanta Braves +122 ( R Dickey - R/ ACTION )
3:10 PM MLB [9910] Colorado Rockies -1.5 +210 ( J Urias/Senzatela)
1 unit bet pays 97 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Mariners vs. Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -137
Toronto finally has gotten on track after a horrible start to the season and won four straight and six of its last seven after its 7-2 win over the Mariners on Saturday. The Blue Jays now have won six of the last seven meetings with Seattle, which has scored a total of only four runs the first three games of this series. Aaron Sanchez will pitch for the first time since April 30 due to a finger injury, but he threw 60 pitches this week and reported no problems. Ariel Miranda got pounded for eight runs in 3 1/3 innings at Philadelphia on Tuesday but the Mariners somehow pulled out a 10-9 win. Miranda's road ERA now is 8.10 this year while allowing 15 runs and 20 hits in 16 2/3 innings. Seattle is 7-15 away from home and Toronto has won seven of its last eight at home.
Twins vs. Indians
Play: Twins +142
I am shocked to see the Twins this big of underdogs after taking the first two games of the series from the Indians, and I think they have a ton of value in this one. Hector Santiago has always pitched well early in the season and that is the case again this year. He comes into this game with a 4-1 record and a 2.76 ERA this season. He has total control over all of his pitches this year and it shows in the record.
For the Indians it's Trevor Bauer on the mound and he hasn't gotten off to the greatest start. He comes into this game with a 2-4 record and an ERA of 7.36. He has given up four or more runs in five of his six games this year. The Twins come into this game with a ton of confidence and feel like they can play with anyone and I don't see that changing in this game. Some trends to note. Twins are 5-0 in their last 5 road games. Indians are 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Padres vs. White Sox
Play: Padres +180
Tremendous line value here. Yes, the Padres certainly aren't a powerhouse but the White Sox had lost 9 of their last 11 games before just getting by San Diego in a tight one-run win yesterday. The ChiSox appear to have a huge pitching edge on the mound here but when you dig a little deeper you see something different. The White Sox will have Jose Quintana on the mound and his strikeout numbers were down in his most recent start even though he faced the free-swinging Orioles. Also, he gave up 9 hits and 3 walks in only 5 innings of work. As for the Padres Jered Weaver, certainly his overall numbers do not impress but he has actually pitched better away from San Diego this season. Surprisingly he has a 1.15 WHIP away from home in his 4 road starts this season! Also, confidence means a lot in sports and Weaver is 12-2 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in his 15 career starts against the White Sox. In NFL you'll hear the expression "On any given Sunday" when someone refers to the potential of an upset. This is certainly one of those situations (MLB style) because the Padres and Weaver offer great odds here considering the upset potential they have here.
Dodgers vs. Rockies
Play: Rockies +125
Two excellent pitching prospects go at it today at Coors Field: Julio Urias for the Dodgers versus the Rockies' Antonio Senzatela.
Senzatela was the NL Rookie of the Month for April. Colorado is 6-1 in his seven starts. Senzatela has proven so far he can pitch at Coors Field, the premier hitter's park in the majors, going 3-1 with a 3.12 ERA there.
Coors is a tough place for any pitcher especially a young one. Urias is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. But he is unproven at Coors and the Dodgers are laying a price here. Urias pitched twice against Colorado during his rookie season last year, including one start, posting a 5.39 ERA. The Dodgers have never seen Senzatela.
I trust Senzatela more in this spot. Colorado also has had the better bullpen although both teams have strong closers.
The Rockies have a winning home record. The Dodgers have a losing road mark if you take out the games Clayton Kershaw has pitched. Colorado is 9-5 versus southpaws. Urias is the fourth straight lefty the Rockies are facing.
Senzatela has had a quality start in all but one of his outings. Opponents are batting just .228 against him. This start could be the most emotional of his career coming on Mother's Day. Senzatela was extremely close to his mother, Nidya, who died from stomach cancer July 24. Senzatela honors his late mother by putting her rosary beads in his uniform pocket whenever he starts.
Play: Rockies +118
I like the value here with Colorado as a home dog against the Dodgers. The Rockies are going to be motivated here to salvage a split in the finale of this 4-game series against LA and I like their chances of doing just that. Colorado will send out Antonio Senzatela, who has been a big surprise early on. Senzatela is 5-1 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.068 WHIP in 7 starts (6-1 team record) and has pitched well at Coors Field, which is no easy task. The Dodgers will counter with Julio Urias, who has a sensational 1.06 ERA in 3 starts, but will be making his first ever start at Coors Field and I look for him to struggle in this one. LA is just 1-4 dating back to last season in Urias' last 5 road starts against a team with a winning record and the Rockies are 9-3 in their last 12 home games against a left-handed starter and 10-2 in their last 12 after being held to 2 runs or less in their previous game.
New York at Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee +139
You ride the wave till it crashes around you. The Brewers were suppose to stink it up on offense without their star Ryan Braun, but someone forgot to tell the rest of the team. The Brewers are on a monster run, and just waxed the Mets 11-4 on Saturday and now are an underdog of this size at home because deGrom is pitching for the Mets, whose ERA is not all that impressive, and the Mets allow a whopping 6.60 runs on the road this year? Well I am going against the public on this one. I will take the Brewers as a home dog today on a 5-1 run, and I think they sweep the Mets in this series on Sunday.
Nothing much to think about today at Miller Park, as the Mets and the Brewers conclude their weekend set with another Over.
11 runs on Friday - Over the total.
15 runs on Saturday - Over the total.
Series has seen the last 4 meetings play Over the total.
The Mets are now 23-7-5 Over the total for the season, while the Brewers are 23-13-1 Over the total for the year.
The Mets are 2-0-1 the last 3 times Jacob de Grom has started, while the Brewers have seen 2 of Wily Peralta's last 3 starts land Over the total.
No other choice.
Mets-Brewers Over.
5* N.Y METS-MILWAUKEE OVER
I nailed my free play last night on the Minnesota Twins, against the Cleveland Indians, and today I like the Milwaukee Brewers as the home pup against the New York Mets. I'm not bothering listing pitchers, either.
Don't be surprised if this game stays low, as the Mets are hoping to avoid a sweep, and the only way to do so is neutralize the suddenly hot Brewers lineup.
Personally, I like Milwaukee because of its offense, which now leads the National League with 59 home runs while ranking third in runs scored (181), and second in slugging percentage (.466).
They've put up 18 runs against the Mets so far, and will be aiming for the knockout punch.
But enough about offense, because sweeps on Sundays are tougher than usual. Instead, I'm going on resiliency and the fact the Mets have lost three in a row.
Take the Brew Crew here, as the game will be tight, but Milwaukee will prevail.
New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers
Jacob deGrom vs. Wily Peralta
UNDER 8.5 (-105)
The Mets? season up to this point has been messy if nothing else, but lost in all the hysteria and panic of their 16-19 start has been the continued solid work from ace Jacob deGrom, who has provided a very important presence on the club?s starting pitching staff amidst all their several key injuries.
Not only has deGrom been piling up the strikeouts ? in fact, he?s second in the National League in K?s behind only Max Scherzer ? but the 28-year-old former NL Rookie of the Year has also been racking up quality starts, registering five in his first seven tries, while yielding three runs or fewer in all but one of his assignments.
deGrom has displayed impressive consistency despite an unfriendly 1.34 WHIP, but his success may continue nonetheless opposite a Brewers lineup that strikes out in bunches. Entering Sunday?s action, actually, they?ve struck out the third-most times (342) in all of baseball.
Thus, that can be something very advantageous for deGrom, not to mention the fact he owns nifty numbers against the Brew Crew. In five career meetings with Milwaukee, deGrom is 3-1 with a 2.32 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and a 28/7 K/BB ratio over 31 total innings. Furthermore, he hasn?t allowed a single run in two career outings at Miller Park, where he is a perfect 2-0 with a 0.70 WHIP and .160 batting average against to go along with that spotless 0.00 ERA.
That brings us to Brewers right-hander Wily Peralta, a guy who can be erratic at times, but also someone capable of being helpful for an under bet when the line is as high as 8.5.
Sometimes in bets like this one, and when one of the starters is an ace-caliber pitcher like we have here with deGrom, you just want the opponent to be an innings-eater who can get you into a position late in the ballgame for an under, and that?s the role Peralta can play here.
The six-year veteran has pitched into the sixth inning in five of his seven starts, allowing more than four runs only once. That can be crucial if he provides a similar effort this afternoon because if we get the desirable standout performance from deGrom, Peralta is capable of doing the rest until the Brewers? above-average bullpen gets involved.
It should also help that the Mets are suddenly scuffling again, having lost their last three. When that?s happening, and especially with the kind of season they?ve specifically been having, guys start to press more at the plate, and that?s something Peralta can capitalize on in recording a decent stat line. Taking that all into account, the under looks like it can deliver on this Mother?s Day afternoon.
My free winner for Sunday is exactly the same play as I delivered on Saturday with my premium selection, as I like the Texas Rangers.
I really like what I've seen from the Rangers of late, as they are playing their best baseball right now. They've won five straight after scoring their second straight victory over these Oakland A's, a 6-5 win.
This is a team that has shown plenty of resiliency, even dating back to last season, making its way into the latter innings with plenty of vigor. The other night they scored five unanswered to win 5-2 over the San Diego Padres. Last night, trailing 4-2, the Rangers posted four in the bottom of the seventh and then held on for a 6-5 win.
Oakland arrived in Arlington to start a six-game trek, and the A's just aren't a team to look at while they're traveling. Oakland just went 2-7 on their last road trip, going 0-3 against the Angels in Anaheim, 1-2 against the Astros in Houston and 1-2 against the Twins in Minnesota.
Oakland is now 5-12 on the road this season.
My money is on Texas here, as the price is cheap and the situation is right for the Rangers.
Oakland +114 over TEXAS
Texas has been contenders for a few years while Oakland has been irrelevant for just as long. The Rangers are known for scoring runs in bunches with several front-line players over the years while the casual fan that does not live in the Bay area probably couldn?t name two players that are on the current A?s roster. Furthermore, the Rangers are heating up with five wins in a row, including the first two games of this series while the A?s have five wins in 17 road games. Finally, A.J. Griffin is 4-0 with a 2.67 ERA and is 3-0 over his past three starts with a 0.45 ERA while Kendall Gravemen is 0-2 over his last three starts with an ERA of 5.45. One would be hard-pressed to make a case for the A?s today, yet they are the smallest dog on the board. Why? Every favorite today is priced higher than Texas so chalk bettors will likely be pounding the Rangers today and that?s precisely what this line is begging you to do. Be very cautious if you were thinking Texas today.
Linesmakers are gambling today that A.J. Griffin?s strong start comes to a halt. Griffin has a nifty BB/K split of 6/27 in 29 innings. That outstanding control has the support of his 73% first-pitch strike rate but his 27 K?s in 29 innings does not have the support of his 9% swing and miss rate. Griffin has only thrown 400 MLB innings over the past five years. He needed a Rust-Oleum break last May for shoulder stiffness and then pitched creakily in the rotation the rest of the year. Recent repairs (2104 TJS, 2015 shoulder) and poor results kept his run times short (5 IP/start). He also had 2nd half struggles last year with a line-drive jump to 38%. The 29 innings this year are nice but the bigger picture says this warm recovery is still in progress and some blowups are forthcoming. Again, oddsmakers are betting on Kendall Gravemen having a much better game than A. J. Griffin and/or the A?s offense doing the same. That?s good enough for us.
CHICAGO -1? +104 over San Diego
Jose Quintana is the South Side's proficient, easily-projected lefty. He continues to throw strikes with just enough swing-and-miss stuff and with little regard to batters' handedness or batted ball outcomes. Quintana has a BB/K split of 19/41 in 42 frames to go along with an identical ERA/xERA split of 4.46. It?s not great but he?s had four starts out of seven in which he?s allowed three runs or less in six innings or more. While this may be as good as it gets for him, we don?t need him to be great here. All we need is for Quintana to be his usual reliable and boring self, as this one is all about fading Jered Weaver.
Weaver?s ERA is 6.81 after seven starts. Over his past two starts covering seven innings, Weaver has been tagged for 16 hits and 17 runs. He?s surrendered two jacks or more in all of his starts this year but one and the Padres are 0-7 in his seven starts. Since 2010, as his fastball velocity slid from 90 to its current 82 MPH, his xERA rose from 3.46 to the nightmare he posted last year and continues to post this year. When you throw that slowly with so many fly balls, giving up the 15 bombs in 35 innings that Weaver has given up this year seems inevitable. It's never good when your ERA could be a Boeing aircraft model. Of course, it'd be helpful if he would miss a bat now and again but he doesn?t. Weaver is batting practice out there. His home park is irrelevant and so is he. Weaver will get hit in the mountains, to the prairies, to the oceans, white... well, you get the idea. Fade until he fades away.
In the Sights, Sunday MLB?
I don?t believe either Jeremy Hellickson or Gio Gonzalez are anywhere near what their base bottom lines for 2017 show, and Game #1 in Washingotn brings an awkward setting for the bullpens, a night-to-day affair after 10 relievers combined to throw 153 pitches on Saturday. So that will get me to #904 Washington/Philadelphia Over (1:35 Eastern), with 8.5 commonly available in the early trading.
The Hellickson story has been told here before in cashing a Cubs Run Line ticket against him, but Gonzalez comes close to matching him in terms of 2017 good fortunate ? he has managed a 3-1/2.64 despite being at a career-low rate in K% and GB%, and his second-worst in BB% and SWS%. So let?s set some perspective by looking at what a big chunk of the marketplace sees, compared to the realities of some key pitching metrics ?
W/L ERA FIP xFIP SIERA
Hellickson 4-1 3.49 5.33 5.42 5.30
Gonzalez 3-1 2.64 4.98 4.77 4.84
Those are significant gaps. The Nationals read Hellickson well in Philadelphia earlier in the week, forcing him out to 21.0 PPI, and a quick second look won?t help a guy with good control, but simply limited stuff (K% sitting at a dangerously low 10.7, dead last of the 123 pitchers that have worked at least 30 innings).
There is naturally some concern over lineups for a setting like this one, but since there is a gap between games, and both teams are off tomorrow, we may see the key cogs play in both. I am going to go ahead and get locked in at 8.5, since there appears to be some Over money in the marketplace.
Two of the top teams in the American League meet up on Sunday Night Baseball, as the Houston Astros visit the New York Yankees on primetime television. A good pitching matchup tilts towards the Astros because of the plus odds offered on the side.
Charlie Morton has transformed himself into a power pitcher at the age of 33, bringing the heat in the mid-90?s now as his career average fastball is at 91.6 mph. He?s always been good at getting ground balls, which is always a plus in this age of upper-cut swings for batters. It has kept his HR/FB% down at 10% to start the year. But really, it is Morton?s velocity that is the story here, as he is a completely new pitcher at this point. Old scouting reports go out the window, he can get away with more mistakes, and his K/9 rate of 9.98 is well above his career average.
It will be tough to fade Masahiro Tanaka in this game, but that is what I am about to do here. Tanaka has won 5 straight decisions coming into this matchup, even with a season ERA of 4.36 that is just about average. He?s benefitted from outstanding offensive support ? helping him overcome a batting average allowed against right-handers of .296. This game should be a toss-up and we are getting plus odds on one side, which is why I will be taking the Houston Astros at +123 on the moneyline as one of my Sunday MLB Picks of the Day.
Free MLB Pick: Houston +123
Pitchers to stream
Vince Velasquez (R), 34 percent ownership in ESPN leagues, Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals: Really? Stream against the Nationals? Hear me out. This looks to be the second game of a doubleheader, so Washington is likely to use their reserves. Facing Max Scherzer isn't ideal, but if you're looking for some last-minute whiffs, Velasquez can deliver.
A.J. Griffin (R), 45 percent, Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics: Griffin is coming off a rare complete game effort, blanking the Padres on four hits in Petco Park. For the season, Griffin has issued only four free passes; one per start.
Dan Straily (R), 12 percent, Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: As expected, the upgrade to a better home pitching park has agreed with Straily. Sunday, he and the Fish entertain the Braves, who will tote the second-lowest weighted on base average (wOBA) against right-handers into Marlins Park.
Trevor Bauer (R), 18 percent, Cleveland Indians vs. Minnesota Twins: The Twins are dangerous versus right-handers, but they're also among the league leaders in this scenario. If you're ratios are in peril, consider looking elsewhere, whiffs and a potential win are in play.
Pitchers to avoid
Masahiro Tanaka (R), 98 percent, New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros: It's hard to recommend reserving someone as talented as Tanaka, but he hasn't been sharp and this is a dangerous matchup. The Astros sport the fifth-best wOBA versus right-handers. Their strikeouts are down, and they possess several hitters capable of taking the homer-prone hurler out of Yankee Stadium.
In the Sights, Sunday NBA?
With the game-day markets lowering Golden State to -9.5, with the Total heading to 211.5, the fist good 212 has hit the board, that opens up a door that I believe works here - #501 San Antonio Team Total Under (3:30 Eastern), with 100.5 having become available.
This series has a chance to become more of a grinder than the market anticipation, and Pops will certainly prefer that, doing what he can to get a slow tempo so that his defense can get back and get set, rather than having the Warriors attack in the open court. But I believe the Spurs have an issue on offense, as noted in the lead the fact that Kawhi Leonard has to run up against a defense that is as well set to slow him down as any in the league, and it isn?t just a matter of his points production, but the fact that without Tony Parker so much of the offense has to run through him.
Golden State?s defense has been dynamic through the first two rounds, not only leading all playoff teams by a wide margin in allowing 96.9 PP100 (no one else lower than 101.5), but also rating #1 in DREB% at 82.1 as well. I think we are going to see a lot of San Antonio possessions going deep into the shot clock and ending with low-percentage shots, and the Warriors doing a good job of cleaning the boards off of the misses.
For Sunday, let's go with the well-rested Golden State Warriors to come out and make a home court statement against the banged-up and weary San Antonio Spurs.
San Antonio "rested" Kawhi Leonard in a gamble of a move on Thursday, and it paid off handsomely as the Spurs torched the Rockets on their home floor by 29-points to close out their semifinal series.
Their reward? Taking on a Warriors team that has won all 8 of their postseason games, and has been idle since Monday when they won and covered at Utah to complete their latest postseason sweep.
The Warriors have covered their last pair this postseason, and have covered in 5 of their 8 wins. They did drop 2 of the 3 regular season series meetings, but their one win was in the most recent meeting at the end of March.
With Parker out, and Leonard likely not at 100%, side with the Dubs for the drub!
4* GOLDEN STATE
Predators vs. Ducks
Play: Over 5
Nashville was attacking all night in Game 1 putting up 46 shots in a 3-2 win. Their defensemen lead the NHL postseason in goals scored. Anaheim is down 0-1 and will have to open things up offensively in this key game for them. Anaheim is on a 4-1-1 run over the total and the over is 20-7-9 when these teams clash, including 15-6-5 over at Anaheim.
Deportivo Coruna at Villarreal 2pm ET - La Liga
Play: Villarreal -1
Villa have won 3 straight at home and 4 of 5 and prior to last seasons home defeat to Coruna that had won the previous 5 while not conceding. Coruna have dropped 3 of 4 but sit 5 points and seemingly safe from relegation this season. Villareal to get the home win and clean sheet today.
