Best I could do. F it...
Willis, Myers, and Webb have made me good $$$ the past few months, but I can't pull the trigger on either Florida or Philly. Vargas has been great for Montreal despite his recent loss to Philly (Myers), Expos bats have been productive lately, and Willis probably won't top 7 innings with his recent all-star inclusion (I'd imagine he'll pitch an inning) - Expos have the better BP here.
Marlins are the closer of the two.
Phillies are really struggling vs lefties this year, mostly due to poor slugging % (avg. virtually identical to vs R). Myers has been the coldest of these three young guns, and Glavine is still capable of giving his team a chance to win, especially at home. Mind you, Mets haven't scored more than 3 runs in any of their past 6 games, all @Shea, and Philly still possesses the much better BP.
I'm trying Webb here. I give the D'Backs a miniscule offensive edge, and a rather large pitching edge, mostly based on the starters, but also with a small edge to the D'Backs BP.
Price is high. I will still try.
D'Backs -158
4.74/3
To me, this game is the best-looking under play on the board. Ump Ted Barrett is 7-7 on totals this season, but with a very high strike %, and in years past he has generally been a strong under play. No play from here as I like the side (obviously) MUCH better; Brower is still an x-factor.
Other shots
-----------------
Indians -115
2.3/2
--Traber just tossed the complete game shutout vs the Yankees, but only threw 102 pitches so he may be able to go 7-8 vs this struggling new Chisox batting order. Garland has been hot lately, as well, but he has been pounded by the Indians during his career.
Blue Jays -105
1.05/1
--I wouldn't be surprised if this was Weaver's last game as a Yankee. He has performed much better lately (how could it be worse?), but he has been had by the Jays before, including several poundings at the Skydome. Escobar appears as level-headed as I can remember him as a Jay, judging by his responses in interviews and, of course, his more consistent performance on the field. NYY has Williams back, but currently have several bats slumping. I've been very careful about playing my teams for the past few seasons (Leafs, Jays), but I 'cap a clear advantage for the Jays in this one, and T.O. pulling out the big emotional (&needed) win yesterday makes the play a little more appealing.
Totals considered
-----------------------
Marlins@Expos under 7.5
--a bit low for me, especially the way the Expos have been hitting lately (especially vs lefties), and Vargas' recent cold spell. Ump Foster doesn't appear to be a factor, despite the 10-7 under record he sports this year.
Philly@Mets under 8.5
--juice and ump really turned me off this one; Layne typically has a rather low strike %; won't pay the -120 with Glavine showing his age lately
Reds@Brewers over 9.5
--ump helps if anything, but Kinney may be due for a decent game (he's had some success vs Reds before), and Brewers bats are ice cold
Padres@Cards over 9.5
--Eaton (hit well by Cards in past) and Haren are both quite hittable, the bullpens may have less options coming in here (early game following last night's 11-inning affair), Cards bats appear healthy right now (not sure what the "personal" reason is for Edmonds Q-status yesterday), and Padres have been scoring a-plenty. Ump Carlson (12-7 over in '03) helps, if anything. May add this in the morning (if..(as if) I'll wanna get up), but Haren being an x-factor and Eaton capable of a strong outting are the reasons for no bo-jangles yet.
Dodgers@Rockies over 12.5 (at the juicy un-juicy +100)
--both clubs hit lefties MUCH better than they do righties, there are 2 struggling lefties matching-up here, and ump Kelley is 3-0 over this year, with a fairly low 61.9 K%. Dodgers (mostly) sleepy (and hurting) bats are keeping me away.
SF@AZ, as mentioned above (under 9)
NYY@Jays over 11
--just-say-no to overs Jerry Meals (ump) has made me say no. Actually made me consider the under for a moment ... nahhh!
KC@Texas over 10.5
--Rangers troubles with lefties, May's current hot-streak, and ump Bill Hohn's lack of cooperation (unders 12-9 this year, 19-12 in '02) have all conspired to make me say "not"
Hope it works out for you(()(s)())
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now I've got that feeling once again
I can't explain
You would not understand
This is not how I am
testing...1,2,3...
(Gilmour&Waters-Floyd-Wall-Comfortably Numb)
Willis, Myers, and Webb have made me good $$$ the past few months, but I can't pull the trigger on either Florida or Philly. Vargas has been great for Montreal despite his recent loss to Philly (Myers), Expos bats have been productive lately, and Willis probably won't top 7 innings with his recent all-star inclusion (I'd imagine he'll pitch an inning) - Expos have the better BP here.
Marlins are the closer of the two.
Phillies are really struggling vs lefties this year, mostly due to poor slugging % (avg. virtually identical to vs R). Myers has been the coldest of these three young guns, and Glavine is still capable of giving his team a chance to win, especially at home. Mind you, Mets haven't scored more than 3 runs in any of their past 6 games, all @Shea, and Philly still possesses the much better BP.
I'm trying Webb here. I give the D'Backs a miniscule offensive edge, and a rather large pitching edge, mostly based on the starters, but also with a small edge to the D'Backs BP.
Price is high. I will still try.
D'Backs -158
4.74/3
To me, this game is the best-looking under play on the board. Ump Ted Barrett is 7-7 on totals this season, but with a very high strike %, and in years past he has generally been a strong under play. No play from here as I like the side (obviously) MUCH better; Brower is still an x-factor.
Other shots
-----------------
Indians -115
2.3/2
--Traber just tossed the complete game shutout vs the Yankees, but only threw 102 pitches so he may be able to go 7-8 vs this struggling new Chisox batting order. Garland has been hot lately, as well, but he has been pounded by the Indians during his career.
Blue Jays -105
1.05/1
--I wouldn't be surprised if this was Weaver's last game as a Yankee. He has performed much better lately (how could it be worse?), but he has been had by the Jays before, including several poundings at the Skydome. Escobar appears as level-headed as I can remember him as a Jay, judging by his responses in interviews and, of course, his more consistent performance on the field. NYY has Williams back, but currently have several bats slumping. I've been very careful about playing my teams for the past few seasons (Leafs, Jays), but I 'cap a clear advantage for the Jays in this one, and T.O. pulling out the big emotional (&needed) win yesterday makes the play a little more appealing.
Totals considered
-----------------------
Marlins@Expos under 7.5
--a bit low for me, especially the way the Expos have been hitting lately (especially vs lefties), and Vargas' recent cold spell. Ump Foster doesn't appear to be a factor, despite the 10-7 under record he sports this year.
Philly@Mets under 8.5
--juice and ump really turned me off this one; Layne typically has a rather low strike %; won't pay the -120 with Glavine showing his age lately
Reds@Brewers over 9.5
--ump helps if anything, but Kinney may be due for a decent game (he's had some success vs Reds before), and Brewers bats are ice cold
Padres@Cards over 9.5
--Eaton (hit well by Cards in past) and Haren are both quite hittable, the bullpens may have less options coming in here (early game following last night's 11-inning affair), Cards bats appear healthy right now (not sure what the "personal" reason is for Edmonds Q-status yesterday), and Padres have been scoring a-plenty. Ump Carlson (12-7 over in '03) helps, if anything. May add this in the morning (if..(as if) I'll wanna get up), but Haren being an x-factor and Eaton capable of a strong outting are the reasons for no bo-jangles yet.
Dodgers@Rockies over 12.5 (at the juicy un-juicy +100)
--both clubs hit lefties MUCH better than they do righties, there are 2 struggling lefties matching-up here, and ump Kelley is 3-0 over this year, with a fairly low 61.9 K%. Dodgers (mostly) sleepy (and hurting) bats are keeping me away.
SF@AZ, as mentioned above (under 9)
NYY@Jays over 11
--just-say-no to overs Jerry Meals (ump) has made me say no. Actually made me consider the under for a moment ... nahhh!
KC@Texas over 10.5
--Rangers troubles with lefties, May's current hot-streak, and ump Bill Hohn's lack of cooperation (unders 12-9 this year, 19-12 in '02) have all conspired to make me say "not"
Hope it works out for you(()(s)())
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now I've got that feeling once again
I can't explain
You would not understand
This is not how I am
testing...1,2,3...
(Gilmour&Waters-Floyd-Wall-Comfortably Numb)
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