This post will include sides/totals/teasers for NFL Sunday. See later post for NFL propositions. Good luck to everyone.
-- Nolan Dalla
ATLANTA/INDY UNDER 46.5
Both of these teams have looked horrible in recent weeks. Colts seem to have totally lost interest in winning and may just go through the motions in this game for lame duck head coach, Jim Mora, as the season winds down the Indy's most disappointing year in recent memory. Colts who already have RB problems (James out), will be without Terrance Wilkins this week, who is the secondary receiver to All-Pro Marvin Harrison. Without a viable running game combined with uncertainty in the passing attack, Colts are no longer good for an automatic 30 points per game. This offense struggled badly in Miami last Monday and has shown no similarity to the unit that put up 85 points in the first two games of the season. Only concern with an UNDER play is Peyton Manning's horrendous pass interception rate this season (20 ints so far). But I believe linesmakers are overreacting here by making the total too high. Falcons have pretty good CBs with Buchanan and Ambrose -- so unless there are several big plays on special teams or unforeseen turnovers, this game should go UNDER. Meanwhile, Falcons have been plagued with devastating injuries to the offensive line. QB Chris Chandler was sacked NINE times last week. Even though the Colts defense is one of the NFL's worst, teams with offensive line problems is a bigger issue. Look for Falcons to throw quite a few passes to the FB and TE -- which are usually completions, pick up an average of about 5 yards, and keep the clock constantly moving. Both teams want a balanced attack in this game and with a total up at 46.5, I believe we have enough justification to play the UNDER here.
DENVER (PICK) vs. KANSAS CITY
Broncos come into this game with more motivation (in playoff contention). While that is not always a determining factor, I believe this fact -- combined with Kansas City coming off a crippling tough emotional loss to the Raiders last week -- gives Broncos the edge here as a PICK. Kansas City's strength is the run, but Denver's defense has played much better as a unit in recent weeks. Broncos are allowing only 3.6 YPC Chiefs rushed for only 46 yards in the first meeting. If Kansas City can't run ther ball effectively, I don't beleive they'll win here. For Denver, it appears Gus Frerotte will start at QB. Frerotte played very well in a back-up role last season and Broncos are likely to rally behind the Number 2 QB in what is a MUST WIN situation. Kansas City doesn't have much of a pass rush, and Frerotte is more mobile than Brian Greise, so this may work to Broncos advantage. No doubt -- Broncos have an outstanding running game. Frerrote has excellent stats TD to INT ratio -- so Denver is unlikely to commit turnovers. Meanwhile, QB Green has beeen horribly inconsistent for the Chiefs this season. Denver should win here. POSSIBLE RAIN IN KANSAS CITY TODAY -- this helps Denver since Broncos won't be as reliant on the pass to produce points.
JAX/CLEVELAND UNDER 36.5
Browns offense is not scoring points. Browns' good fortune has come from getting turnovers and defensive scores. If Browns were a bit more consistent on offense I would lay the -2.5, but not here. Division rival Jags are certainly capable of holding Browns in the teens, while Jags offense faces a tough test on the road versus a strong defense. Look for QB Brunnell to have some trouble in this game (Browns completely dominated Jags in the first game -- it was a total mismatch). Each time Brunnell goes to the ground, he appears just one hit away from being knocked out. Add possible rain forecast, a total which is close to average (36.5), two division rivals which traditionally play low-scoring games -- and I believe the best play here is the UNDER.
MORE PLAYS TO COME....(see below)
-- Nolan Dalla
ATLANTA/INDY UNDER 46.5
Both of these teams have looked horrible in recent weeks. Colts seem to have totally lost interest in winning and may just go through the motions in this game for lame duck head coach, Jim Mora, as the season winds down the Indy's most disappointing year in recent memory. Colts who already have RB problems (James out), will be without Terrance Wilkins this week, who is the secondary receiver to All-Pro Marvin Harrison. Without a viable running game combined with uncertainty in the passing attack, Colts are no longer good for an automatic 30 points per game. This offense struggled badly in Miami last Monday and has shown no similarity to the unit that put up 85 points in the first two games of the season. Only concern with an UNDER play is Peyton Manning's horrendous pass interception rate this season (20 ints so far). But I believe linesmakers are overreacting here by making the total too high. Falcons have pretty good CBs with Buchanan and Ambrose -- so unless there are several big plays on special teams or unforeseen turnovers, this game should go UNDER. Meanwhile, Falcons have been plagued with devastating injuries to the offensive line. QB Chris Chandler was sacked NINE times last week. Even though the Colts defense is one of the NFL's worst, teams with offensive line problems is a bigger issue. Look for Falcons to throw quite a few passes to the FB and TE -- which are usually completions, pick up an average of about 5 yards, and keep the clock constantly moving. Both teams want a balanced attack in this game and with a total up at 46.5, I believe we have enough justification to play the UNDER here.
DENVER (PICK) vs. KANSAS CITY
Broncos come into this game with more motivation (in playoff contention). While that is not always a determining factor, I believe this fact -- combined with Kansas City coming off a crippling tough emotional loss to the Raiders last week -- gives Broncos the edge here as a PICK. Kansas City's strength is the run, but Denver's defense has played much better as a unit in recent weeks. Broncos are allowing only 3.6 YPC Chiefs rushed for only 46 yards in the first meeting. If Kansas City can't run ther ball effectively, I don't beleive they'll win here. For Denver, it appears Gus Frerotte will start at QB. Frerotte played very well in a back-up role last season and Broncos are likely to rally behind the Number 2 QB in what is a MUST WIN situation. Kansas City doesn't have much of a pass rush, and Frerotte is more mobile than Brian Greise, so this may work to Broncos advantage. No doubt -- Broncos have an outstanding running game. Frerrote has excellent stats TD to INT ratio -- so Denver is unlikely to commit turnovers. Meanwhile, QB Green has beeen horribly inconsistent for the Chiefs this season. Denver should win here. POSSIBLE RAIN IN KANSAS CITY TODAY -- this helps Denver since Broncos won't be as reliant on the pass to produce points.
JAX/CLEVELAND UNDER 36.5
Browns offense is not scoring points. Browns' good fortune has come from getting turnovers and defensive scores. If Browns were a bit more consistent on offense I would lay the -2.5, but not here. Division rival Jags are certainly capable of holding Browns in the teens, while Jags offense faces a tough test on the road versus a strong defense. Look for QB Brunnell to have some trouble in this game (Browns completely dominated Jags in the first game -- it was a total mismatch). Each time Brunnell goes to the ground, he appears just one hit away from being knocked out. Add possible rain forecast, a total which is close to average (36.5), two division rivals which traditionally play low-scoring games -- and I believe the best play here is the UNDER.
MORE PLAYS TO COME....(see below)
