Sunday September 9th 2007
yesterday: 5-10 -5.03
September: 58-58 +4.33
ml 23-18 +4.57
rl 1-4 -7.67
totals 23-13 +7.25
parlays & IFs 11-23 +0.18
system picks 1-2 yesterday; 15-14 in September
system totals 1-0-2 yesterday; 17-9 in September (65.4%)
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
Atl 58% (-139)-1
Mets 56 (-128)-1
mil 70 (-159)+8 RL 57 (-103)+6
cubs 57 (-104)+6
Phil 64 (-134)+6
sd 61 (-114)+7
lad 54 (-119)-1
Ariz 66 (Davis-Thompson)
seat 51 (+126)+6
bost 63 (-180)-2
Tb 63 (-130)+6
min 62 (-134)+4
nyy 63 (-181)-2
Tex 56 (-134)-2
Laa 63 (-147)+3
system totals
hou@Mets un8.5 76% (-115)+22 --ump DeMuth is even
mil@Cin ov10 72 (-120)+17 --ump Wegner is even
fla@Phil ov10.5 69 (-115)+15 --ump Vanover is even (20-11 this season)
lad@Sf un7.5 68 (+100)+18 --ump Knight is even
seat@Det un9.5 70 (-115)+16 --Gorman is a good UNDER-ump
oak@Tex ov9.5 65 (+105)+16 --Barrett is an under-ump; kills this one
Some days you just end up making stupid bets and pay the price. What feels much worse is when you are totally on top of what's to come and still end up getting burned by some seriously bad breaks. I think that describes my Sunday. Twins, Reds and Jays all had multiple run leads late into their respective games and all 3 of those squads ended up blowing it. Couldn't have seen a better effort from A.J. Burnett (complete game, maybe?sigh?). Not much I can do. Happy to salvage a nice Indians hit; also happy to have described the Indians over 4.5 as "a gift" and not end up looking like a fool. Four day win streak is over, now, so it's time to begin a new one (WIN streak, that is, not just "streak"?in case the Gods are reading this?).
Brewers and Padres are system picks for Sunday. Brewers are tops in MLB with an .856 OPS against lefties, second in runs scored vs lefties to only the Braves (by 12 runs, 255 to 243, but the Braves had done it with almost 400 more AB's (>25%)()))(. Brewers hitting .322 last 10 vs lefties so they haven't slowed down any. Dumatrait an era of 13.00 on the season and 18.69 over his past 3 starts! Compare that to Sheets at season 3.36 and past 3 at 2.93 and I guess we have a major SP mismatch here; add in the bullpen discrepancy and we have a monster edge for the Brewers pitching. Reds CAN hit righties (OPS .801), but I'm still giving an edge at the plate to Milwaukee here; looks to be the safest place to put money for Sunday (likin' the Steelers and the Seahawks, too). Padres Young is 4-0 with a 2.18 era vs the Rockies in 8 career games; that includes 1-0 with a 0.60! era in three '07 starts (2 at Coors); Young, career, is 3-0 with a 1.71 era at Coors (4 starts). Fogg has poor numbers vs the Padres, including from '07. Giving an edge to the Rockies bats, but control freak Maddux shut them down and now they have to face a totally different style of pitcher, one who seems to own them (though there have been a few recent starts?most of which seemed to be the 3RD of the year vs opponent?where a pitcher who had dominated the opposition got rocked in his next vs?Young survived #3 so maybe he truly does "own them".) Looks nowhere near as good as the Brewers but still looks worth a play.
Some value also with Cubs, Phillies, Mariners, Devil Rays (gasp!), and Twins. I'd add the Angels to that list but passorama, for me, with big bat Vladdy questionable; Weaver over Laffey, for sure, but Indians are too hot for me to fade in this one. Cubs I haven't tried yet as Morris has made a couple of good starts for the Pirates and I'm not sure what to expect from Trachsel. Phillies I'm trying a piece of as Marlins OPS vs L of .797 is a great drop-off from it's mark earlier in the season while Phillies mark of .839 just climbs higher and higher (Philly hitting .305 last 10 vs L while Marlins hit .245); bit of a gamble as Moyer might just throw a stinker and Willis might throw a rare, good game, but the Phillies looked pissed off, today, about dropping the opener and I think they'll be raring to go to at least take the series. Mariners are likely a pass for me. Devil Rays can kiss my ass after yesterday?maybe time to fade the Jays?I think that yesterday's loss kinda eliminates them (in my mind, at least) from the Wild-Card hunt; probably take a pass on that one though the pitching favours the D'Rays and, ffsake, I'd also have to give an edge to them at the plate. Twins I'm trying though playing the Twins right now seems like a dreadful move; price for Santana is dirt cheap and I think the Twins take one against a still rather useless Chisox group.
For totals, I'm on the Mets game under, the Giants game under, and the Tigers game under. Also been waiting patiently for them to open the Brewers team total; finally opened it at a 5.5, -130 for the over, so hoppy (have the Brewers team total at +26?doesn't get much higher than that). Other totals I'm still looking at.
Will turn a plus on Sunday.
Take it to the bank.
GL
yesterday: 5-10 -5.03
September: 58-58 +4.33
ml 23-18 +4.57
rl 1-4 -7.67
totals 23-13 +7.25
parlays & IFs 11-23 +0.18
system picks 1-2 yesterday; 15-14 in September
system totals 1-0-2 yesterday; 17-9 in September (65.4%)
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
Atl 58% (-139)-1
Mets 56 (-128)-1
mil 70 (-159)+8 RL 57 (-103)+6
cubs 57 (-104)+6
Phil 64 (-134)+6
sd 61 (-114)+7
lad 54 (-119)-1
Ariz 66 (Davis-Thompson)
seat 51 (+126)+6
bost 63 (-180)-2
Tb 63 (-130)+6
min 62 (-134)+4
nyy 63 (-181)-2
Tex 56 (-134)-2
Laa 63 (-147)+3
system totals
hou@Mets un8.5 76% (-115)+22 --ump DeMuth is even
mil@Cin ov10 72 (-120)+17 --ump Wegner is even
fla@Phil ov10.5 69 (-115)+15 --ump Vanover is even (20-11 this season)
lad@Sf un7.5 68 (+100)+18 --ump Knight is even
seat@Det un9.5 70 (-115)+16 --Gorman is a good UNDER-ump
oak@Tex ov9.5 65 (+105)+16 --Barrett is an under-ump; kills this one
Some days you just end up making stupid bets and pay the price. What feels much worse is when you are totally on top of what's to come and still end up getting burned by some seriously bad breaks. I think that describes my Sunday. Twins, Reds and Jays all had multiple run leads late into their respective games and all 3 of those squads ended up blowing it. Couldn't have seen a better effort from A.J. Burnett (complete game, maybe?sigh?). Not much I can do. Happy to salvage a nice Indians hit; also happy to have described the Indians over 4.5 as "a gift" and not end up looking like a fool. Four day win streak is over, now, so it's time to begin a new one (WIN streak, that is, not just "streak"?in case the Gods are reading this?).
Brewers and Padres are system picks for Sunday. Brewers are tops in MLB with an .856 OPS against lefties, second in runs scored vs lefties to only the Braves (by 12 runs, 255 to 243, but the Braves had done it with almost 400 more AB's (>25%)()))(. Brewers hitting .322 last 10 vs lefties so they haven't slowed down any. Dumatrait an era of 13.00 on the season and 18.69 over his past 3 starts! Compare that to Sheets at season 3.36 and past 3 at 2.93 and I guess we have a major SP mismatch here; add in the bullpen discrepancy and we have a monster edge for the Brewers pitching. Reds CAN hit righties (OPS .801), but I'm still giving an edge at the plate to Milwaukee here; looks to be the safest place to put money for Sunday (likin' the Steelers and the Seahawks, too). Padres Young is 4-0 with a 2.18 era vs the Rockies in 8 career games; that includes 1-0 with a 0.60! era in three '07 starts (2 at Coors); Young, career, is 3-0 with a 1.71 era at Coors (4 starts). Fogg has poor numbers vs the Padres, including from '07. Giving an edge to the Rockies bats, but control freak Maddux shut them down and now they have to face a totally different style of pitcher, one who seems to own them (though there have been a few recent starts?most of which seemed to be the 3RD of the year vs opponent?where a pitcher who had dominated the opposition got rocked in his next vs?Young survived #3 so maybe he truly does "own them".) Looks nowhere near as good as the Brewers but still looks worth a play.
Some value also with Cubs, Phillies, Mariners, Devil Rays (gasp!), and Twins. I'd add the Angels to that list but passorama, for me, with big bat Vladdy questionable; Weaver over Laffey, for sure, but Indians are too hot for me to fade in this one. Cubs I haven't tried yet as Morris has made a couple of good starts for the Pirates and I'm not sure what to expect from Trachsel. Phillies I'm trying a piece of as Marlins OPS vs L of .797 is a great drop-off from it's mark earlier in the season while Phillies mark of .839 just climbs higher and higher (Philly hitting .305 last 10 vs L while Marlins hit .245); bit of a gamble as Moyer might just throw a stinker and Willis might throw a rare, good game, but the Phillies looked pissed off, today, about dropping the opener and I think they'll be raring to go to at least take the series. Mariners are likely a pass for me. Devil Rays can kiss my ass after yesterday?maybe time to fade the Jays?I think that yesterday's loss kinda eliminates them (in my mind, at least) from the Wild-Card hunt; probably take a pass on that one though the pitching favours the D'Rays and, ffsake, I'd also have to give an edge to them at the plate. Twins I'm trying though playing the Twins right now seems like a dreadful move; price for Santana is dirt cheap and I think the Twins take one against a still rather useless Chisox group.
For totals, I'm on the Mets game under, the Giants game under, and the Tigers game under. Also been waiting patiently for them to open the Brewers team total; finally opened it at a 5.5, -130 for the over, so hoppy (have the Brewers team total at +26?doesn't get much higher than that). Other totals I'm still looking at.
Will turn a plus on Sunday.
Take it to the bank.
GL
