Dr. Bob
Sunday Analysis
MINNESOTA (+2 ?) 92 L.A. Lakers 88
I took the Timberwolves as a 2-Star Best Bet in game 1 based on line value and that value is still present. The Lakers are playing at a higher level in the playoffs than they did during the regular season, but using their playoff games only would still result in a fair line of pick in this game (my ratings using all of the Lakers games with their 4 superstars would favor Minnesota by 2 ? points). Los Angeles is still just 16-31 ATS on the road this season, including 8-21 ATS after a win and a modest 3-3 ATS in the post-season. The Lakers? Game 1 victory was a bit of a fluke in that the Timberwolves committed an uncharacteristic 15 turnovers to the Lakers? 8. Minnesota was second in the league in fewest turnovers per game this season and I don?t expect them to be as sloppy in game 2. Game 2 home underdogs are 5-0 ATS in the post-season the last 14 years and teams with winning records are 31-14-1 ATS as home underdogs after a game in which they lost straight up and lost to the pointspread ? including a win by the Houston Rockets this season in game 3 against the Lakers. Minnesota out-shot the Lakers 49% to 47% in game 1 and they have a good chance to win if the turnovers are even in this game. The Timberwolves also qualify in a solid 80-43-2 ATS bounce-back situation while the Lakers apply to a 44-22-2 ATS road momentum situation. Overall, the angles favor the Timberwolves slightly, as does the line value, and Minnesota has a profitable 58% chance of covering at the current number of +2 ? points (57% at +2 and 60% at +3). I?ll take 3 points or more with Minnesota in a 2-Star Best Bet and I?ll consider the Timberwolves a Strong Opinion if they remain an underdog of less than 3 points..
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winning points
5-0 last five NBA
LA Lakers over Minnesota* by 8
The Lakers are the team that figures to
block more shots and get more turnovers.
They are also the team that has two players
who can score the ball regardless of the good
defense being played against them.
They are also the team that does not have
an injured ball-hog Sam Cassell trying to play
the game. LA LAKERS, 98-90.
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winning points - baseball
marlins, surprise!
FLORIDA (Willis) +140 over ARIZONA (R. Johnson)
Pitchers coming off no-hitters/perfect games usually
underperform in their next outing,. In this case Randy
Johnson is in a most unfavorable setting, making the
Marlins a very appealing home underdog. They've already
pounded the Diamondbacks in the first two games of
this series, and now they get to send ace lefthander
Dontrelle Willis against an Arizona team with a pitiful
3-10 record vs. southpaws (-$990 with 3.8 runs per game).
Florida hasn't turned a profit vs. lefties, but they have
averaged 5.8 runs per game in that situation. They've
seen their team hitting improve steadily (17 runs in this
series already), so they are well poised to swep the last
place visitor.
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Special K
5* Cubs-Cards UNDER
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AAA Sports 2* Cardinals, 1.5* Royals Under, Expos and Reds
Brian Smith Regular Plays Braves, Indians and Yankees
Cajun Sports 2* Pirates and Indians
Earl Morgan Regular Plays Rockies, Blue Jays and Cardinals
Fixer Wins Regular Plays Indians, Orioles and Pirates Under
Guaranteed: Pirates
Hardball Technology: Blue Jays
LV Sports: 10* Yankees, 10* LA Dodgers
OCD Picks: 2* Devil Rays, 2* Braves Under, 4* Cubs Under
Private Players 3*'s DRays Under, Pirates Under and Reds Under
Southcoast 2* Expos Under, Indians and Phillies Under
Texas Sportswire: 4* BlueJays Under
Mark Langdon 1* Rockies, Royals and Orioles Over and
3* Seattle Over
Special K 5* St Louis Under (9-8 This Season on 1-5* Releases)
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jimmy the hat
5 unit cleveland
4 unit arizona
3 unit boston
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LINECRUSHER
Plays for Sunday, May 23rd
12:30 Eastern Update
2*Colorado/Estes +154 over Mets/Glavine ($200 to win $308)
Percentage play on Colorado to avoid the road sweep. The Rockies are 3-2 in Estes' 5 road starts and 7-2 in his 9 starts overall. The Mets are 1-3 in Glavine's 4 home starts and over the last 1+ seasons the Mets have been money burners at home behind Glavine going 5-16 in his 21 home starts.
2*Florida/Willis +120 over Arizona/Johnson ($200 to win $240)
The right spot to fade Johnson as a road favorite who should be flat coming off of his 2-0 perfect game shutout at Atlanta Tuesday night. Over the last 1+ seasons Florida is 12-7 in Willis' 19 home starts and 23-12 in his 35 starts overall.
2*Cubs/Clement -120 over St Louis/Morris ($240 to win $200)
Over the last 1+ seasons the Cubs have been almost unbeatable at home behind Clement going 4-1 so far this season and 16-6 in his last 22 starts. The opposition has scored 3 or less total runs in all 5 of Clements home starts this season and the opposition has scored 3 or less total runs in 18 of his last 22 home starts.
8:35 Eastern
Minnesota + over Lakers
After losing the opener a must win game for the T-Wolves if they want to stay alive in this series. A 2nd consecutive home loss to open the series would basically end the series. The T-Wolves are in a precarious position as it is as the winner of game #1 has won 10 of the 12 series thus far which is the playoff norm as the winner of game #1 has went on to win the series over 80% of the time. Have to side with Minnesota as a home underdog in a must win home game.
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BIG AL'S GAME OF THE MONTH
ASTROS
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